“When you start a war, you got to know you can win.”
Those words, spoken by Donald Trump about Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, are now haunting Trump himself. Because the trade war he has launched against China is starting to look like a war he cannot win – and ordinary Americans are about to pay the price.
In 2024, the US imported goods from China totalling $438.9bn – 95% of that via ocean freight. Those goods retail at around $1tn. In the past few weeks, Trump has pushed through massive new tariffs on these Chinese imports. China has hit back just as hard, raising taxes on American goods going into China to 125%. Meanwhile, most goods coming into the US from China are now facing tariffs of around 145%.
Raising tariffs was pitched as a way to protect American jobs and punish “cheating” by foreign governments. But economists, investors and business leaders see something else entirely: a policy that will raise prices for American consumers, increase costs for US manufacturers and weaken the country’s overall competitiveness.
Empty shelves, higher prices
The result has been immediate – and devastating. Major US retailers like Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s have now stopped shipping anything from China. They told Trump in a meeting last Friday, described as “productive”, that they have enough stock built up to last about two weeks. After that, shelves will start to empty – fast.
This is a looming crisis not just for the companies, but for millions of Americans who rely on these stores for affordable goods. Walmart and Target are lifelines for lower-income families. They sell everything from clothes to household supplies to school items at prices that most Americans can manage. When those shelves go bare, it’s the people with the least money who will suffer first.
Trade wars don’t just raise prices in shops. They jam up the whole system that gets goods from factories to ports to warehouses to the doorstep. And that’s exactly what’s happening now – the real damage is only now beginning to surface. This is because it usually takes about a month for goods from China to reach the US west coast, even longer to reach ports like Houston or New York. So up to now, American consumers haven’t really felt the effects beyond shortages from panic-buying.
And it’s not just ports that are taking a hit. The collapse in imports has just started sending shockwaves through the trucking industry – one of the biggest employers in the country. Without goods to move, transport companies will see their businesses dry up almost overnight. The devastation cannot be understated. If the trucks aren’t moving, drivers aren’t getting paid. Thousands of small freight companies could go under in the coming months, taking with them tens of thousands of jobs.
More than 80% of America’s truckers voted for Trump. Now, they are among the first victims of his trade war.
Even a U-turn won’t stop the damage
Having set these events in motion, even if Trump were to reverse course tomorrow and lift the tariffs, the damage would not disappear overnight. Supply chains don’t bounce back instantly. Once orders are cancelled and routes are cut, rebuilding them takes time – months at least.
Factories in China aren’t waiting around. Many are already pivoting to find customers elsewhere. They know that if the US is no longer a reliable buyer, there are plenty of others – in Latin America, Southeast Asia, Africa – willing to step in.
Economists warn that even in the best-case scenario, the fallout will be felt for the rest of this year. And if China is slow to re-engage with US companies, it could take even longer for trade to return to anything like normal. In the meantime, inflation, which had finally started to ease after the double whammy of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, is likely to climb again. As a result, jobs will be lost and recession risks will grow. The International Monetary Fund has just slashed its growth forecasts for the US and other major economies, calling Trump’s tariffs a “major negative shock” to the world economy.
A strongman trapped by his own war
Trump now faces a brutal dilemma. As a self-styled “strongman,” he does not want to back down. Admitting that the tariffs have failed would be humiliating – especially after selling the policy as a way to “stand up” to China.
But the economic realities are not shifting in his favour. China, so far, is brazening it out, confident that it can survive a slowdown. American businesses, on the other hand, are panicking. Retailers are warning of price hikes. Truckers are staring at bankruptcy. Manufacturers are already cancelling expansion plans. And the longer the tariffs stay, the deeper the damage will be, and the harder it will be – for Trump, or anyone else – to put the pieces back together.
Trump hailed the day he imposed the tariffs as “Liberation Day” – but instead of setting America free, he has imprisoned both the economy and himself. Trade wars are easy to start. Winning them is another matter entirely.
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