Southend-on-Sea has long been a popular seaside resort and holiday destination for Londoners. Having recently become a city, it sits on the north side of the Thames estuary with the world’s longest pier – at 1.33 miles – reaching out from the beach towards Kent. It has a population of 180,000, with around a fifth of workers commuting daily into London. Southend has two constituencies with this focus being on the one on the eastern side of the city.
The constituency of Southend East and Rochford came into its modern form in 1997, when boundary changes reunited the historic town of Rochford with the eastern side of Southend. Following a review, the name of the constituency was changed for the 2024 General Election.
Yet, while boundaries and names have changed, the party of choice from the electorate has not. Since 1931, the constituency has been held by the Conservatives and before then, it was held by the Unionists. In recent years, the constituency has been represented by the Eurosceptic MPs Sir Teddy Taylor and then by Sir James Duddridge. In November 2023, Duddridge announced that he would be stepping down at the 2024 election.
2024 is different
Given its history, Southend East and Rochford would normally be considered a very safe seat. In fact, earlier this year, it was even rumoured that the city might play host to the return of Boris Johnson to politics. That rumour came to nothing when it became clear that even traditionally safe seats are now vulnerable.
The national polling shows that Southend and East Rochford could be within striking distance for Labour. Equally, given that at local level, the administration of Southend Council has a large number of independent councillors and groups, it is not impossible to imagine the Conservative vote being diluted among other parties.
There are seven candidates standing for election, listed here in alphabetical order:
Bayo Alaba – Labour
James Allen – Liberal Democrats
Lee Clark – Confelicity (Southend-based party)
Simon Cross – Green Party
Gavin Haran – Conservatives
Bianca Isherwood – Heritage Party
Leslie Little – Reform UK
What do the polls say?
Based on the national polling data, it appears to be a two-way fight between Labour and the Conservatives. However, the presence of right-wing parties such as Reform, Heritage and Confelicity may pull votes away from the Conservatives in the same way as the Liberal Democrats and Greens may reduce the Labour vote.
Bucking the trend
While there has been a lot of national coverage for Reform, parties such as Confelicity and Heritage also have a part to play.
Confelicity is based in Southend and was formed in 2022. It has the distinction of being the first political party formed in Southend since it became a city. It is led by James Miller, who is standing in Southend West and Leigh. The party is committed to supporting local business and entrepreneurship.
Heritage is a national party that aims, according to their website, to “preserve and promote life, liberty, prosperity and national sovereignty” through the principles of social conservatism.
Both may appeal to ‘small c’ conservative voters, whilst Reform will appeal to those voters who support Brexit. There is clearly likely to be some overlap here.
Outcome
With Reform entering the fray, likely pulling votes from the left as well as the right, the party’s place as a spoiler in this election is unclear. We may have to wait until 5 July to know whether the Conservatives can stay on beside the seaside and hold Southend East and Rochford. It may be that this year we will finally see an almost century-long run of Tory representation come to an end in this constituency. But if that happens, whether the baton passes to Labour or Reform remains to be seen. Whoever wins the seat, it will be a bellwether for the national election, and one that will likely be spoken about for many years to come.
