The poster held by this German demonstrator warns that the democratic parties are coming apart, and democracy is in danger. She asks “Is that what we want?”
Germany is a federal republic made up of 16 states (Länder). Each Land has its own parliament and government and significant powers of its own. State elections therefore determine who governs locally, but they also matter nationally: state governments are represented in the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper house, where they have a direct role in federal legislation. That means elections such as these are not simply German equivalents of English local elections: they can change both the political direction of an individual state and the balance of power at federal level.
Saxony-Anhalt
On 6 September in Saxony-Anhalt the Alternative für Deutschland narrowly missed their goal of winning an outright majority, taking 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament. Their candidate Ulrich Siegmund had publicly expressed concern at not being able to implement ‘pure AfD’ as state president. On the campaign trail, the party spelled out their vision for Saxony-Anhalt: they would dismantle the region’s public broadcaster, remove disabled, neurodiverse and refugee children from mainstream schools and push for closer ties with Russia. As early as election night, Siegmund raised the prospect of fresh elections if other parties conspired to keep him out of power, while the party leadership has made it clear that they wish to see their first state president sworn into power, even if it costs them some compromises.
The other important aspect of the result was that a party called the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) managed to secure over 5% of the vote, giving them seats in the parliament – and making them a potential kingmaker for the AfD. The BSW is an unusual party that blends left-populist views on economics with far-right views on migration and culture. Founded by the hugely talented leftist politician Sahra Wagenknecht in 2024, the party has been in coalitions in two states, but over the last year both have fallen apart over conflicts about the direction the party should take.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Then on 20 September, the AfD won another election, taking 32 of the 71 seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliament, yet its prospects for power are practically nonexistent. The incumbent president’s party, the centre-left SPD, came a close second, with 29 seats. The other two parties who made it into the parliament – the Greens and the leftist party Die Linke – have signalled that they are willing to seek to form a coalition government with the SPD, which would have a majority.
In fact the biggest story in ‘Meck-Pomm’ is the historic collapse of the centre-right CDU party. In the state of Angela Merkel’s constituency, the party failed to secure even 5% of the vote – the minimum required to make it into the parliament. This is the first time in history that the party will not be represented in a state parliament. For a party that sees itself as a Volkspartei or ‘party of the people’, this is an existential result – and party members in other federal states are getting nervous.
Berlin
It was a different story in Berlin, also on 20 September. Here, the celebrations were at the other end of the political spectrum. Erip Erlap, a 51-year-old Berliner with Turkish heritage, has good chances of becoming the first Berlin mayor with a migration background. And that despite her leftist party, Die Linke, only winning 25% of the vote; with four other parties scoring double figures, this is now enough for first place.
Until recently, a key demographic of Die Linke in Berlin was older East Berlin residents who grew up in the GDR. Figures show that this time round Die Linke’s voters skew massively to the young, with the party taking an astonishing 47% of votes cast by the under-30s (the Greens managed only 11%). Gone, indeed, is any sense that Die Linke is a party of the East and not the West: instead, a new delineation has emerged, with the party dominating the inner-city districts, while parties like the SPD, CDU and AfD do well in the suburbs.
This makes sense given the biggest theme of their campaigning: rent. For many Berliners, it’s the thing they most want to see politicians do something about. Five years ago, a city referendum demanded the dispossession of large property companies in an attempt to reduce rents; it passed with a comfortable majority. Die Linke has made it a ‘non-negotiable’ condition of them governing that this demand be passed into law – something both the Greens and the SPD (their potential coalition partners) have rejected.
However, within hours, Die Linke’s victory was tainted, as photos circulated of a clan boss attending an election party in the Neukölln borough. He was accompanied by a representative of a banned organisation who are associated with Hamas. This has stoked concerns that some members of the party do not distance themselves enough from antisemitism and organised crime.
What do these results mean?
Germany’s centre-ground parties continue to wither. With a bad performance in Berlin, the centre-left SPD will take comfort from probably retaining the presidency of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, but for the centre-right CDU there is no good news at all. The Greens seem to lack a narrative since losing power as part of the previous national government, and the FDP (akin to the Liberal Democrats) is nigh-on irrelevant right now.
The AfD continues to establish itself as the major voice of the non-urban regions of Germany. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the party acts as if it is simply a matter of time until they win an outright majority, and in Saxony-Anhalt they are on the cusp of power. Whereas the other parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD – a stance known as the Brandmauer or ‘firewall’ – the BSW is engaging in talks with them. However, the party says it will not endorse AfD candidate Siegmund for the position of state president, and instead is calling for a “unity president” with no party allegiance – something other parties were initially opposed to but are beginning to consider.
On 6 October the constitutional meeting of the state parliament takes place, and although no one expects a state president to be sworn into office on this occasion, the expectation is that the AfD and BSW will cooperate to install an AfD member as Speaker and a BSW member as Deputy Speaker. This would then lay the groundwork for a minority AfD government to assume power in November. The real question is how much of its manifesto the AfD would actually be able to implement, given it will need several votes from the highly unpredictable BSW to get anything over the line.
Where is Germany headed?
For German chancellor Friedrich Merz the situation continues to worsen. He is by now the least popular German chancellor of modern times, but fortunate at least in the sense that there is no one in the party who seems willing to topple him. His coalition with the centre-left SPD will likely become harder to manage, as the SPD start to bark their demands louder – partly in the (reasonable) belief that they are more popular than the chancellor’s policies, and partly simply in an attempt not to go down with a sinking ship.
This need to focus on his political survival will mean less time to dedicate to international affairs. In July 2025, just two months after assuming power, Merz was in London to sign a bilateral treaty with UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer that was a major step in repairing the UK’s relations with the EU. Such efforts are now likely to be pushed further down the list of priorities in Berlin.
Perhaps, while the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Berlin made for the biggest headlines, it is the election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern that serves as the best statement of what is currently going on in German politics. Here, the democratic parties have been given a stay of execution – but only just. As one local business association leader put it in an interview with the German newspaper SZ: “[People] want stability and they want democratic values, but they also don’t want things to continue as they are. And they’re stuck between these two things.” For the democratic parties, the paralysing question remains: what’s a viable alternative for Germany apart from the Alternative für Deutschland?
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