14 years. A good age for a dog or a whisky. The amount of time the iPad has been around. Back in 2010, Greece was going bust, Germany made their final reparations for World War I, and the Arab Spring commenced. Meanwhile, in the UK, after a fraction under 14 years, the electorate decided that it was, in fact, time for a change.
Change. The one-word banner under which Sir Keir Starmer is fighting this election. I can think of better words, to be honest. “Hope” would be nice, as would “Truth”, “Accountability”, “Honesty” or “Integrity”. Change, after all, does not have to be for the good. Rishi Sunak’s announcement yesterday might have been made to the backdrop of “Things can only get better”, but that is only true when rock bottom has been reached, and despite the vicissitudes of the past 14 years, that is a point we have yet to reach.
It might sound pedantic for me to focus on this one word – “Change”. However, I imagine that it is a word that has been thought about quite thoroughly by the teams of advisors to what are, almost certainly, the Government-in-waiting.
The flaws of First Past the Post
“Change” to me sums up the key failing of our democratic two-party system, which has been in existence since the time of the Whigs. People like change, “variety is the spice of life”; and so forth. I’ve written before about the failings of the First Past the Post (FPTP) system. There is, of course, no promise by either of the two opposition parties to move us away from FPTP, and I’m prepared to place good money on there being none in either manifesto. Why should there be – as, after all as we are frequently told, “turkeys do not vote for Christmas”.
The voting rights of edible birds is a strange concept, just as it is strange that for literally millions, their votes will count for nothing on 4 July. Their political viewpoints are either unrepresented, or represented by parties who aren’t either Labour or Conservative and who therefore have no chance to be elected. Fancy voting to repeal Brexit? Over 50% of us now think it was wrong to leave, but look for a party that encapsulates that view and you will look in vain; even the Lib Dems talk, somewhat timidly, about rejoining the Single Market “once the ties of trust and friendship are renewed”. So, that will be sometime in 2050, I imagine.
“Change” is what FPTP feeds on, what its allure is to the two parties who play pass-the-parcel with power. Cast your mind back to 2010 – which frankly, from this distance seems like the time of milk and honey – and wonder why Labour were not re-elected. Was it down to the somewhat uncharismatic Gordon Brown? Possibly. The economic crisis? Well, the UK was out of recession at that point. The Iraq war? Again, possibly, although the marches took place 7 years previously.
Or was it just that, quite frankly, people had forgotten how dreadful the Conservatives were?
The cycle of political power
Change is the one thing FPTP guarantees; we tire of one administration, we replace it with another. In 2010, 27 million people voted out of an electorate more than twice that number. The difference in overall votes between the two parties was just over 2 million, making it less than 10% of the votes, and less than 5% of the total available votes, that determined an outright winner. Labour had 8.6 million votes and ended up with 258 MPs. The Lib Dems got 6.8 million votes which got them only 57 seats. Being English, I’m going to say “do the maths”.
If the principles behind FPTP were applied to anything else in life, they’d be found laughable.
The country will, doubtless, vote for “Change”. On 5 July, Sir Keir will enter number 10. Whether, after 14 years – he still leads Labour in 2038 is unlikely, one imagines, but one never knows. All that is – virtually – certain by then is that “Change” will be the mantra of the Tory opposition, and that they will be in power before that decade ends; and that the votes of millions of the electorate will yet again count for nothing.
I wish I had the optimism to say “write to your MP, when the new one is appointed, and ask for Proportional Representation”. I will try doing this, and I will share the results later this year; but – turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.
I’d love to believe this would change.
I’d love to believe this would change.
