You might expect that only rare or exotic birds are at risk from climate change. But new research from the University of East Anglia (UEA) suggests that even our most familiar birds – like the starling or house sparrow – could be in trouble if they can’t cope with changing weather patterns.
The study, published in the Journal of Biogeography, reveals that a bird’s chances of survival aren’t just about how common it is or how much space it occupies, but about how many different kinds of climates it can live in – a factor scientists call its climatic niche breadth. The wider this niche, the more resilient a species is likely to be.
A new way to spot birds at risk
Researchers looked at long-term population data for 159 European breeding birds across 29 countries and combined this with detailed climate data covering a 30-year period. By mapping the climate conditions each species typically experiences, they developed a new way to measure which birds are most exposed to the risks of climate change.
Karolina Zalewska, lead author and postgraduate researcher at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, explains: “Species with a narrow climatic niche – meaning they only thrive in a small range of weather conditions – were more likely to be declining. That was true regardless of whether the species was rare or widespread. Even birds you see every day might be more vulnerable than we realise.”
This means conservation groups need to go beyond the usual approach of focusing mainly on rare species with small ranges. Instead, they should also consider how flexible different birds are when it comes to climate. Those that can’t adapt may be at greater risk as our environment continues to change.
Why climate matters more than ever
Human-driven climate change is now recognised as one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity. But the impact isn’t felt equally across species. Birds that can live in a variety of conditions – hot or cold, dry or wet – are more likely to keep their numbers up, even as temperatures rise or rainfall patterns shift.
But some birds that live across large areas might still struggle if they rely on very specific conditions in each location. That’s one reason why researchers focused not just on the size of a bird’s territory, but on how much climatic variation it can handle within that space.
Co-author Prof Aldina Franco from UEA adds: “With climate change accelerating, we need to quickly identify which species are most at risk. This study gives us a tool to do that, by showing how important it is to understand the climate conditions birds are used to – and how that affects their future chances.”
Farming birds worst affected
The researchers found that birds linked to farmland – such as skylarks or corn buntings – were more likely to be in decline, echoing earlier studies. These birds often rely on stable weather conditions and specific types of landscapes, both of which are being lost to changes in farming practices and the climate.
By contrast, birds that are comfortable in human-dominated areas, like blackbirds and blue tits, are more likely to be increasing in number. These generalists can cope better with change – whether it’s temperature shifts or habitat disruption.
Out of the 159 species studied, 58 showed long-term declines, 68 were stable, and 33 had growing populations.
More than just climate
While climate is a major factor, it’s not the only one. The study also considered other characteristics, like body size, diet, whether the birds migrate, and the types of habitats they use.
For instance, long-distance migratory birds have often suffered worse than short-distance migrants or those that stay put all year. One reason is timing: when birds arrive in spring but the food they rely on peaked earlier due to warmer temperatures, they can miss out – a mismatch that harms their breeding success.
Still, this study makes it clear that climate flexibility is one of the key predictors of how well birds will cope in the future.
RSPB Birdwatch results
These findings align with results just in from this year’s RSPB Big Garden Birdwatch, which recorded the lowest ever number of starlings in UK gardens. Once the most commonly spotted bird in the count, the starling has dropped to fourth place nationally. In Norfolk, where more than 13,000 people took part, starlings failed to make the county’s top three, which were blue tit, woodpigeon and house sparrow.
Despite their striking plumage and mesmerising winter murmurations, starlings have suffered one of the steepest population declines of any UK bird. The UK breeding population has dropped by 82% since 1970. Though starlings still appear in large flocks during the winter months, these numbers are increasingly made up of visitors from northern Europe rather than birds bred on British soil.
The Birdwatch provides an annual snapshot of garden bird numbers across the country and offers a valuable comparison to scientific models like those in the new UEA study. The real-world data reinforces the warning: many of our best-loved species are quietly vanishing, even in familiar surroundings like gardens and parks.
As the researchers behind the UEA paper emphasise, conservation efforts must go beyond farmland if they are to succeed. A focus on the spaces between – gardens, roadside verges, urban green areas – could be just as critical to halting the decline of these once-common birds.
What this means for conservation
Zalewska believes these findings could change the way conservationists and policymakers approach their work: “Our index allows us to make faster, more accurate assessments of which species are at risk. That means we can target efforts more effectively – not just saving the birds that are already rare, but also preventing common ones from becoming the next crisis.”
The research was funded by the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council and the ARIES Doctoral Training Partnership.
This article is based on two press releases from the University of East Anglia and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds. It was compiled by ChatGPT and edited by EAB. Original study can be found here.
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