As 2026 Nature Friendly Farming week draws to a close, the theme – Solutions for Climate and Communities – highlighted the imperative of building resilience into food production.
In a farming report presented in Westminster, the Nature Friendly Farming Network (NFFN) set out how our dominant model of conventional agriculture, with high levels of inputs including fossil fuels and chemicals, leaves farms vulnerable to threats from climate change, volatile markets and rising production costs.
Effect of global shock on food production
Fighting in the Middle East has highlighted the problems of Britain’s reliance on imported fertiliser. With the Strait of Hormuz – a key shipping route – closed, a third of the global trade in raw materials for fossil fuel-derived fertiliser is at a standstill. This, together with hold-ups of shipments of natural gas required to make the fertiliser, means prices are soaring, which inevitably impacts farmers and food prices.
So serious is the impact of the ongoing shipping blockade that David Miliband, head of the International Rescue Committee, has described the situation as a “food security timebomb”.
Donald Trump has claimed the war in Iran will be “over with soon”. If this proves true, it will be a relief to many. However, it will take some weeks to normalise the availability of fertiliser. This whole situation emphasises the vulnerability of the UK’s food production due to events that are currently beyond its control.
Effect of climate shocks on food production
Global supply disruptions are not the only challenges farmers face. The combination of extreme weather driven by climate change, together with continued exposure to volatile oil and gas markets, heavily impact the horticulture sector, and compound pressures on the UK’s food system.
“Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Nino effect kicking off this year,” says Chris Jaccarini. He is a food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), a non-profit organisation that supports informed debate on energy and climate change issues in the UK. He explains that in the past five years, England has experienced three of the worst harvests on record. This is attributed to the increasingly frequent patterns of wetter winters followed by prolonged dry periods in summer.
The ECIU states that UK food prices are on track to be 50% higher in November compared to levels at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in mid-2021. This will disproportionately affect lower-income households as they spend a larger share of their income on food and are less able to absorb price shocks. The Food Foundation estimates that in order to afford the government recommended healthy diet of fruit and veg, the most deprived fifth of the population would need to spend 45% of their disposable income on food, rising to 70% for those households with children.
Responding to the alarm bells
The NFFN emphasises that farmers need to prioritise nature, soil health and water management to successfully navigate these growing environmental and economic pressures. They are calling for urgent investment from government and businesses to support a transition in how farming operates.
“The alarm bells are ringing ever louder,” says NFFN CEO, Martin Lines. He claims that NFFN research shows the current farming model is “not delivering for farm profitability or the environment. Business as usual is not an option.
“The Government must now act with ambition, providing the long-term direction farmers need to build resilient businesses that produce healthy food and protect our natural world for future generations.”
To realise this shift, the NFFN is calling for ambitious investment from both the public and private sectors to support farmers in transitioning to more nature-friendly ways of working. Even Anglian Water stated that they “see nature friendly farming as essential to securing long-term water quality and catchment resilience”.
The NFFN argue that government schemes should take a whole-farm approach rather than focusing on piecemeal actions; that there should be better coordination across government departments; and that farmers should be rewarded for improved soil health and carbon sequestration.
The UK government’s own report warns of global ecosystem degradation, crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. It states that without major intervention these events, which threaten the UK’s national security and prosperity, are highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond.
Plainly the government knows the issues. But will they respond to the alarm bells?
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