On 23 January, the Times published a story under the headline “More parents lying to get their children into top UK state schools after VAT hike”. This claimed to be based on an opinion poll, commissioned by the property website Zoopla. But the headline and the following article radically misrepresented the findings, which were later repeated in the Standard. It would seem that the newspaper which used to be seen as the journal of record and admired for its accuracy, has descended into mere propaganda.
For the many readers who only skim headlines and first paragraphs, the message is clear: Labour policy on VAT on private school fees is making criminals of thousands of people. But if the data shows anything (which is uncertain) it is certainly not that.
Although the headline implies that large numbers were lying, the text later modifies this a little. “The research by Zoopla, the property website, found that 28% were “lying, bending rules or playing the system” to get their children into their preferred state schools, a rise from 24% in late 2022 when it previously carried out the research”. It also implies that the cause was the government’s decision to impose VAT on private school fees, but without any substantial evidence.
Was this a reputable poll?
Although the article failed to identify the pollster, Zoopla confirms that it was Mortar, a new and small company. It is a member of the British Polling Council, but unlike most pollsters it does not do political polling, which makes it difficult to compare it with others. Although they do not appear to publish their data tables, they were happy to provide them to polling expert Mark Pack.
Mortar reports that the sample was 1,019 parents who had applied for a school place in the last five years. That is a reasonable number for a national poll. But clearly, a large majority of the respondents would have applied long before the Labour Party announced that it was going to impose VAT on private school fees.
What was the question?
The article claims that “28% of UK parents admit to flouting the rules to get their children into schools”. The Mortar tables show that this included a range of actions, and respondents could choose more than one.
Among the respondents:
- 30% had registered their child at the address of a relative or friend to get into the right catchment area;
- 25% had exaggerated their religious beliefs;
- 17% moved house permanently;
- 9% percent had temporarily rented a house in a catchment area.
Others had “made voluntary donations to the school in advance of my child’s place being confirmed”, “attempted to involve myself with the school prior to applying – for example by volunteering” and “tried to become friends with senior figures at the school”.
Some of us might think of these as ‘playing the system’, but few of us would call them all ‘flouting the rules’.
Is the finding significant?
The poll tables show that the number of parents agreeing that they had, in some way, ‘flouted the rules’ was 27% (not the 28% in the Times article). This compares with 24% in the 2022 poll. Since an increase of three percent is within the margin of error: there may in fact have been no change at all.
Furthermore, the real figures are tiny. Mortar report that, of the 27% who said they had flouted the rules, only 12% had previously sent children to private schools or had been considering it, and 45% of those quoted VAT as an issue.
So, the total sample was 1,019 people; 27% of whom (275) said they had ‘flouted the rules’; 12% of them (33) had children in private schools, or had considered it’; and 45% of them (15) said that VAT on fees was an issue.
Conclusion
So, the only conclusion one can properly draw from this poll is that, over the last five years (in four of which a Conservative government was firmly in place), 1.5% of people with children in private schools (or considering it) considered ‘flouting the rules’ to get their children into a particular state school because of the government’s VAT policy. Given the definition of ‘flouting’, anyone involved in school admissions would think that an extraordinarily small number.
A more solid conclusion is that some papers have abandoned all propriety in the pursuit of headlines and a political campaign against the government.
This article has been updated with an alternative image, as using AI images is in breach of Bylines Network policy. The person responsible has been made aware.
This article is based on work by Mark Pack, President of the Liberal Democrats and appointed to the House of Lords in 2024.
