I have attended a couple of events recently that were very enlightening as to the state of Europe. One in particular stands out, as it was an event with senior member-state army officers. (It’s always uncomfortable, civvies and beer gut catching the eye, a man who doesn’t know which end of a rifle is the business end. But I like to think they recognise my military mettle from my bearing).
Strength in unity
Points that were made: Europe is ready to transform its military; that means very close collaboration; the money is going to be available; it can be done without the United States; Ukraine will be defended; and everyone inside is getting onboard. The bus is leaving.
What’s noticeable here is the mood. Well moods. Firstly the grammatical mood. These are seasoned professionals hard-bitten by political reality. And yet the mood was indicative, not at all conditional.
And that in itself was – forgive me – indicative of the general mood. It is adamantine determination. Not giddiness. Shoulder to the wheel time. Something has changed.
It is often said that political Europe takes its leaps forward in crises. That is unfair, but Europe has had its share of adversity that has prompted big changes. The Union itself was founded in the ashes of war, to bring together the belligerents, especially France and Germany, to say “never again”. It has been successful. In the 1950s Europe could not afford to feed itself; the Common Agricultural Policy transformed the situation, and Europe exported €70 billion more in food than it imported in 2023; the financial crisis led to developments in how the European Central Bank operated (more assertively), and how we issue debt. Even a blow like Brexit led indirectly to the Covid recovery fund and the funding of the Ukrainian government, both of which the UK would have blocked had it been sitting in the Council.
Trump’s helping hand?
Donald Trump has provoked a crisis in just a few short weeks in office. But in truth this should not surprise anyone given where the US and the world had been moving. As one general put it, “We had Obama’s pivot to Asia and didn’t wake up; we had Crimea, then Donbas, and didn’t wake up; we had Covid and didn’t wake up. We had the full invasion of Ukraine and didn’t wake up. Now we’re awake”. The US president has given the Old Continent clear direction and determination. This is the task, and this will get done.
When you compare this to discussions in the past where states worried about, for example, just using Russian assets to fund Ukraine, we can see that the wheel has turned. Suddenly treaty change, strategic autonomy, getting Ukraine to a winning endgame, strengthening the single market and asserting more forcefully Europe’s position in areas like trade and borders seem possible. Nothing is off the table. Any potential spokes in the wheel – notably member-state governments that want to retard this new move to unity – will be worked around.
Europe responds
Determination and political will can smooth, even steamroll, many problems. So while business will carry on as normal in most areas, when it comes to getting the European economy and authorities, if not on a war footing, at least productive and ready for the next steps, then existing structures will bend, and new institutions will be founded. Only one note of caution was sounded: politics in member states are still febrile and inflation has to be guarded against to prevent populism.
Concerning what this means for the United Kingdom, as I’m sure many readers are wondering, the wheels are in motion already. As announcements by Iceland and rumours around Türkiye and Norway confirm, being inside Europe’s legal institutions, especially as a member, will be important. The drive to strategic autonomy will have the Commission central. The UK has to think seriously, and strategically, as to where it fits into that. But either way, this is happening.
Europe is rising to the occasion – will the UK?
And what of poor old Brexit? While we’d have to scroll down several pages on Europe’s list of priorities to find it, there is still an opportunity here. The UK still has to honour its current treaties, but if it were to acknowledge that the Commission and the single market were the best forums to at least take the first steps of procurement and coordination, what would happen if Keir Starmer were to ask to be let in? I’d say it’d be, sign here, let’s forget about the past, we’ll build trust. In fact, I would assume a draft UK in the single market agreement has been written already.
None of us wanted this. Women and men who served in Nato forces, or those of us who grew up under pax americana and couldn’t face dealing with Russia alone. Now we have to. My expectation is that Europe is rising to the occasion, and we will look back on the success of military union in the same way we do monetary union or freedom of movement.
