The Brexit referendum was presented by both supporters and opponents as a moment that would settle something fundamental. Leave campaigners argued the UK would ‘regain control’ and build a different future outside the European Union. Remain supporters warned that geography, economics and politics would eventually pull Britain back towards Europe again. Ten years later, neither side has fully got the country they imagined and Britain’s relationship with Europe remains politically unsettled. Pro-EU campaigners hoping to mark the referendum anniversary are now trying to turn that sense of unfinished business into political pressure by pushing a parliamentary petition over the threshold at which it can be considered for debate.
But activists hoping to mark the tenth anniversary of the vote aren’t asking ministers to reopen the question immediately. Their more immediate goal is simpler: getting the parliamentary petition calling on the Government to apply to rejoin the European Union over the threshold at which it can be considered for debate.
The Government remains clear that it has no intention of returning to the EU, Single Market or Customs Union. Yet at the same time, ministers have spent much of the past year pursuing closer cooperation with Europe in trade, defence, energy and wider strategic policy. The language has changed too. Britain is increasingly being described not as a country standing apart from Europe, but as one seeking to be close to it while remaining outside its institutions.
Reopening the question
The petition campaign sits within a wider effort to use the anniversary to reopen a conversation that many politicians have preferred to avoid. Having now collected more than 90,000 signatures, organisers hope the petition can reach 100,000 before it closes on 8 June. Crossing 100,000 signatures doesn’t guarantee a debate, but the hope is that reaching that point would make it harder to dismiss the question entirely.
From forecasts to outcomes
Part of the argument is that the terms of the debate have changed since 2016. For years, Brexit discussions became trapped in forecasts. Supporters argued the UK would gain sovereignty, flexibility – particularly in global trade – and freedom to act independently. Opponents warned of weaker growth and reduced influence. Much of the debate became an argument about competing predictions, with one side accused of fearmongering and the other of promising outcomes that were unlikely to materialise.
Ten years later, researchers are increasingly trying to look backwards rather than forwards and ask a different question: not what Brexit might do, but what happened. One recent study estimates that by 2025 Brexit had reduced UK GDP by between 6% and 8%, investment by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4%, and productivity by a similar amount.
Leave supporters will point out that the years since the referendum have hardly provided normal economic conditions. Covid saw large parts of the economy effectively shut down during lockdown, disrupting businesses, jobs and international trade, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered energy and inflation shocks across Europe. Studies such as this attempt to account for those wider pressures by comparing the UK with similar economies facing many of the same conditions, and the authors conclude that Britain still appears to have underperformed relative to what would otherwise have been expected.
More than economics
No single study settles an argument that was always about more than just economics. While some Leave voters still believe the trade-offs were worthwhile, another common argument is that Johnson failed to deliver the ‘hard’ Brexit they voted for. But after nearly a decade, the economic effects no longer feel quite as hypothetical as they once did. Many would argue we are living them already.
Economics isn’t entirely abstract. Investment decisions affect where businesses choose to expand and where they hold back. Productivity eventually feeds into wages. Growth affects the level of tax revenues flowing into the chancellor’s coffers and, in turn, what the government can spend on public services. Together, these things shape the conditions governments operate in and perhaps help explain why the Government’s language around Europe feels noticeably different now than when it first came to office. Not because ministers suddenly became converts to rejoining, but because the geopolitical and economic context around them has shifted.
A different Europe – and a different world
And economics is only part of the picture. The world Britain voted to leave in 2016 no longer exists in quite the same way. The war in Ukraine, uncertainty over Europe’s security relationship with the United States, recent tensions around Iran and growing concern about climate resilience have all reinforced how interconnected countries remain, even outside formal political unions.
For supporters of closer European ties, these are reminders that many issues increasingly cross borders. These include energy, food security, defence and – as Europe experiences an extraordinary early-season heat event – climate resilience and adaptation. They raise questions not just about cooperation with the EU, but also about whether Britain’s current relationship with Europe gives it enough influence over outcomes that increasingly affect both sides.
Marking the anniversary
Campaigners hope to use the anniversary to make that case publicly. Alongside efforts to push the petition over the debate threshold, organisers are preparing a National Rejoin March in London on 20 June – three days before the anniversary itself.
Mike Galsworthy, Chair of the European Movement, says the moment shouldn’t simply be used to revisit old arguments but to ask what Britain’s long-term direction now looks like. In a video promoting the campaign he says: “This government has said that because of the Iran war, we need to build closer with Europe. And Keir Starmer has said that we need the UK at the heart of Europe.” He calls on supporters to sign and share the petition and support anniversary events, saying that if Parliament is willing to debate the issue, campaigners should use the opportunity to show MPs that public interest in Britain’s relationship with Europe hasn’t disappeared.
None of this means Brexit is about to be reversed. The Government’s position remains to build closer ties with Europe while remaining outside European institutions and there is still little political appetite in Westminster for reopening old battles.
Yet that position may itself point to a different debate from the one many expected in 2016. If Britain increasingly finds itself working with Europe on economics, security, energy and climate anyway – and if ministers themselves increasingly frame the UK’s future in terms of partnership and cooperation – then the question over the next decade may become less whether Britain should work closely with Europe and more whether remaining outside its institutions still makes sense.
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