Public sentiment toward Brexit has changed dramatically since the 2016 referendum, when 52% of voters chose to leave the European Union (EU). Recent polling consistently shows that a growing majority of the British public now believes Brexit was a mistake.
One of the key factors driving this shift is not merely people changing their minds but rather a demographic process known as “cohort replacement.” As younger, overwhelmingly pro-European voters enter the electorate and older, pro-Brexit voters pass away, the political landscape is undergoing an irreversible transformation. If the Labour government fails to acknowledge and respond to this shift, it risks finding itself out of step with the electorate of the future – potentially opening the door for political rivals to capitalise on growing pro-European sentiment.
Research based on multiple YouGov surveys from 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 reveals that around one-third of the decline in Brexit support can be attributed to cohort replacement, with younger voters – who are overwhelmingly against Brexit – entering the electorate while older, pro-Brexit voters pass away. The remaining two-thirds of the shift comes from people reconsidering their position on Brexit as its economic and political consequences unfold. By examining these patterns and projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), researchers predict that Brexit will continue to lose public support in the coming years.
How public opinion on Brexit has changed
Shortly after the 2016 referendum, YouGov polling showed that around 46% of respondents believed Brexit was the right decision, compared to 42% who thought it was wrong. Five years on from the date Britain officially left and the numbers have dramatically flipped: 55% say Brexit was a mistake, while only 30% still support it.
At first glance, these figures suggest that a substantial portion of Leave voters have changed their minds. But polling numbers only provide a snapshot of public opinion at a given time. They don’t account for demographic changes in the electorate, such as older voters being replaced by younger ones. Different age groups tend to have different political opinions, vote at different rates and have differing remaining life expectancies at the point of any given election. An example of this is Professor Tim Bale pointing out: “One in six Conservative voters are likely to die before the next election … Labour’s much younger voter base means that only 1 in 19…are likely to die.” This natural process alone has a significant impact on overall public sentiment.
The role of cohort replacement
In the case of Brexit, cohort replacement has had a profound effect on public opinion due to the stark generational divide in attitudes toward the EU.
In the 2016 referendum, voting patterns were strongly linked to age:
- Older voters were far more likely to support Brexit.
- Younger voters overwhelmingly supported Remain.
This divide has remained stable in the years since. YouGov’s surveys show that Brexit support among the oldest age groups remains high, while the youngest voters have only become more anti-Brexit over time. Given that voter turnout is consistently higher among older demographics, their preferences shaped the 2016 referendum outcome. However, as time passes, the composition of the electorate naturally shifts.
Researchers applied demographic decomposition methods that analyse the effects of different demographic factors – such as age, birth year, and generational changes – on overall public opinion trends. They estimate that cohort replacement alone has accounted for about one-third of the decline in Brexit support between 2016 and 2022. In other words, even if no age-group or individual had changed their mind about Brexit, public opinion would have moved in an anti-Brexit direction simply due to generational turnover.
Looking ahead, projections based on ONS data suggest that this trend will continue. Unless younger voters significantly change their attitudes in favour of Brexit – a scenario that current data does not support – the UK electorate will continue to shift towards greater opposition to Brexit.
Changing minds: the other two-thirds
While cohort replacement explains a significant portion of the decline in Brexit support, it doesn’t account for everything. The remaining two-thirds of the shift can be attributed to individuals reconsidering their stance on Brexit.
Many who originally supported Brexit may have changed their views due to:
- Economic consequences: Brexit has led to trade disruptions, labour shortages, and slower economic growth.
- Political instability: After the referendum, the UK cycled through multiple prime ministers, with Brexit-related issues contributing to government turmoil.
- Unmet expectations: Promises made by the Leave campaign, such as an easy trade deal with the EU and reduced immigration, have not materialised as expected.
Polling data indicates that Brexit regret is particularly pronounced among those who were only marginally in favour of Leave in 2016 – often referred to as ‘soft leavers’ – as well as those who voted for Brexit in protest rather than out of strong ideological commitment. However, the study also found that the most pro-Brexit voters – predominantly older generations – have largely remained steadfast in their views, with support for it marginally strengthening over time.
What this means for the future of Brexit
The study’s findings have major implications for UK politics and the possibility of a closer relationship with the EU in the future.
- Growing pressure for change:
- If current trends continue, public opinion will increasingly favour reversing some aspects of Brexit, whether through a closer economic partnership with the EU or even rejoining in the long term.
- The Labour government will face mounting pressure to adjust policies in response to shifting public sentiment.
- Referendum legitimacy and policy reversals:
- The Brexit referendum was a snapshot of opinion in 2016. Given the generational divide, the decision may become increasingly difficult to justify as representative of current public opinion.
- This phenomenon raises broader questions about the long-term legitimacy of referendums when there is a strong age-based voting divide, especially with such a narrow margin of victory.
- Uncertainty and countervailing forces:
- While the generational trend is clear, external factors – such as political events, economic shifts, or new crises – could influence younger generations’ views.
- If future governments successfully present Brexit in a more positive light or if geopolitical factors (such as EU instability) shift public attitudes, the trajectory could change.
Why it matters to Labour
Cohort replacement and changing minds are shrinking support for Brexit. The significance of this trend is profound: it suggests that political pressure for a closer relationship with the EU will only intensify, and the legitimacy of the 2016 referendum result may become increasingly difficult to justify. While it’s possible unforeseen political or economic events could shift public sentiment, the demographic trajectory offers a steady and predictable force reshaping Britain’s future with Europe.
As the UK’s electorate evolves, the government is taking a risk in ignoring the growing generational divide on Brexit. The Labour leadership will have to recognise the need for a bold shift in its approach to the EU if it wants to remain relevant to the electorate of tomorrow. Their reluctance to embrace a European future is becoming out of sync with public sentiment – an issue that will continue to deepen. If they fail to act, the party risks being sidelined by the demographic shift, with potentially disastrous consequences for Labour come the 2029 election.
This article is based on research published by the European Journal of Political Research. Read the original paper here.
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