It was a sweltering afternoon in Cambridge and across East Anglia on 23 June 2026. As I prepared to chair a panel discussion to mark the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum, I couldn’t help but think back to a decade earlier, when grey skies and torrential rain covered much of our region. The contrasting weather seemed to echo a vastly altered geopolitical climate.
Joining us to discuss “Finding a path back to Europe” were Molly Scott Cato, Vice Chair of the European Movement UK, James Coldwell, Senior Manager for External Affairs at Best for Britain and Jonathan Saunders, Head of International at Young European Movement UK.
Unite Europe against the chaos
Molly Scott Cato opened by noting that the political chaos we’re now experiencing in the UK is a deliberate effect of the campaign to leave the EU. The right-wing populists and their oligarch backers who pushed for the UK to leave the EU have an agenda to thrash democracy and Brexit, as part of their agenda, was a “deliberate missile targeted at the EU.”
As an organisation focused on the interests of its citizens, the EU has the collective strength to stand up to the authoritarianism that is on the march across the world and Molly rightly asked, “who else other than the EU is going to stand up against those forces?”
The view from the EU
All three of our panellists acknowledged that the EU has evolved considerably since the UK left. In his opening speech Jonathan Saunders mentioned the UK’s opposition to collective EU action and further integration over recent decades, commenting that “The EU is poorer and smaller on the world stage without us, but it is also more united and integrated.”
However, new polling published by the European Council on Foreign Relations on 21 June indicates that two-thirds of EU citizens would welcome the UK back. Molly added that we’re now seeing quite clear signals from many EU politicians that if the UK sought to rejoin they would back it, as “We do need that strength in numbers, and they recognise that as we recognise that.”
While the clearest benefits to the EU from the UK rejoining are political and strategic, James Coldwell noted that a new report from Frontier Economics commissioned by Best for Britain shows that the EU will benefit economically from the UK rejoining, which would also help mitigate the impact of Trumpian US tariffs.
But we can’t be half-hearted about it. There was firm agreement on the panel that if the UK is to rejoin it will need to do so wholeheartedly, rather than seeking opt-outs on the Euro or Schengen (which in any case the UK will not immediately qualify to join). We need to go back as positive Europeans and embrace the project for European unity.
Economic benefits
In his opening talk James presented the findings from the Frontier Economics report, which looked not at the cost of Brexit to the UK economy, but rather at the potential future economic benefits of different models for the UK’s relationship with the EU. The report compared these models with the UK Government’s current approach, including the expected agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS).
Unsurprisingly, the Frontier Economics report found that the Farage model of a more distant relationship, effectively a “no-deal” Brexit, resulted in lower growth. Rejoining the Customs Union would deliver a modest boost (0.5–0.7%) to UK economic growth over the next 5–10 years compared to the Government’s current approach, while rejoining the Single Market would deliver a more substantial (1.5–2.1%) boost to GDP.
Rejoining the EU would deliver the greatest economic benefits, with an almost immediate 5% boost to exports and a substantial (2.5–3.6%) long-term boost to economic growth, equating to an additional £66–92bn, which prompted James to say: “I would challenge anyone here, as I do whenever I talk to people about this, to find any other policy lever the UK government could pull that can deliver anything close to that level of growth.”
Beyond economics
It’s not all about economics. James discussed the results of polling of more than 4,000 UK adults undertaken by YouGov this spring, which found that a large majority of voters back a closer relationship with the EU. A third responded “don’t know” when asked about joining the Customs Union or Single Market, while only 14% responded “don’t know” when asked about rejoining the EU, with 53% supporting rejoining the EU and 32% opposed.
When analysed by party support, the survey found that of all the options for strengthening the EU-UK relationship, rejoining the EU was the only one to have significantly higher support among current Green, Labour and Lib Dem supporters than the Government’s current approach. The findings suggest that aiming to rejoin is the least politically risky option, as well as being the option most likely to deliver real electoral dividends for progressive parties if they embrace it.
Single Market or rejoin EU?
Of course, the decision to rejoin the Customs Union, Single Market or EU will not be up to the UK and its voters alone; the other side in negotiations also gets a vote! This was a point I raised in the Q&A session, particularly with respect to rejoining the Single Market.
Many people advocate joining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) as a stepping stone to rejoining the EU. But why would the EFTA members – Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland – invest time and effort in negotiating the UK’s membership if they know the UK intends it only as a temporary arrangement?
After all, these governments have a lot of other pressing issues to contend with and as the UK’s economy is larger than that of all current EFTA members combined, its short-term membership would be disruptive.
Other models of Single Market membership have been proposed that would entail the UK negotiating directly with the EU, but again, why would the EU agree to holding years of negotiations for a temporary arrangement?
Surely the better option is to move directly to rejoining the EU “as positive Europeans buying into the whole package” to quote Molly.
Who are you calling a Leave-voting area?
During the Q&A an audience member picked up on Molly’s comment that she was infuriated by commentators referring to Makerfield as a “Leave-voting constituency based on something that happened 10 years ago” when there is evidence that many people have changed their minds on Brexit. How could the rejoin campaign engage with them?
James noted that the Frontier Economics report found that several regions of England that had relatively high Leave votes in 2016, including the West Midlands, North East and Yorkshire, stood to gain most from rejoining the EU due to their focus on manufacturing goods and exports. It would be more constructive to start asking what particular areas need and how EU membership can benefit them, rather than focusing on how they voted a decade ago.
Another referendum … do we have to?
Molly argued strongly that referendums are not constitutionally necessary and are incredibly divisive and that the decision to rejoin could be made through a more informed and truthful process of citizen engagement that would leave the final vote to Parliament.
As an Irish citizen who has seen how divisive and vulnerable to being hijacked referendums can be and also how effectively Citizens’ Assemblies can inform political decisions, I found Molly’s arguments very attractive.
However, James and Jonathan made what I thought was a convincing case: a referendum would be necessary to convince the EU that the UK really has changed its mind. The EU needs to be sure that an incoming right-wing government on a third of the vote and a manifesto commitment to leave couldn’t just take the UK back out again with a vote in Parliament. Moving to Proportional Representation for UK parliamentary elections, which came up several times in our discussion, would help, but it looks as though we’re stuck with referendums for now.
There was broad agreement on the panel that as campaigners we need to make sure party manifestos for the next general election, particularly the Labour party manifesto, include a commitment to rejoining the EU, and that any referendum must be on the negotiated agreement to rejoin the EU. We need to know what we’re voting for next time!
We need to get cracking!
“It’s just time to move on, isn’t it, it’s time to recognise that things have changed, the world has changed, whatever decision was taken ten years ago, we need to look again at that decision and ask if it’s right for us now.”
This statement by Molly captured for me the essence of the situation, the challenge we face today. It’s 2026, not 2016 and as much as we would like to, we can’t turn the clock back. We need to take the decisions that are in the best interests of the UK, Europe, and our world, now. I believe that rejoining the EU, an EU that certainly is different from the EU we left, is in our collective best interests.
As Molly said while recalling her final speech in the European Parliament and telling her fellow MEPs that she would be back to make a speech when we’re members of the EU again “well I’m 63, so there’s not much time left, so we need to get cracking with this.”
Watch our recording of the panellists’ opening speeches ⤵️
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