Some world leaders are not keen on Brexit. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says he “deplores deeply” the UK’s decision, French President Emmanuel Macron says the UK was stronger when it was part of the Union, and even President Trump thinks Brexit was “sloppy”.
Many Europeans believe we should re-think. A majority in France, Germany, Italy and Spain would support the UK rejoining the EU, a YouGov poll found recently. In fact, a smaller percentage of people in those countries than in the UK would oppose it.
However most think we shouldn’t have the same favourable terms we had on the euro and Schengen. Around 58-62% felt the UK should subscribe to all main EU policies.
Of UK small and medium business leaders, 66% would now vote to remain EU members, up from 53% in 2016. They have now experienced increased red tape damaging their profits.
EU leaders visit
Why are Merz and Macron talking about Brexit anyway? Well, both had major ‘bilaterals’ with PM Starmer recently to forge agreements on defence co-operation and migrant control.
Macron was invited for a full state visit, including banqueting with the King. German premier Merz and Starmer gave speeches in the Victoria & Albert Museum, named after a German prince and part-German queen.
The UK, France and Germany are collaborating on a three-way alliance of major European powers, called the E3, focusing on security and economic growth. The delicate diplomatic dance continues in trying to improve European alliances.
In these rapprochements with big EU nations, Starmer must take care not to be seen by Brussels as forging deals which are the business of the EU27.
So how is the EU re-set going?
The EU summit was on 19 May, but talks are slow starting. The EU has now authorised the opening of negotiations in the autumn on two major policies: carbon emissions trading and a common sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) area.
The EU recommendations for negotiations are downloadable here, and state: “Neither agreement should give the United Kingdom the right to participate in the Union’s decision-making. However… the European Commission should consult the UK at an early stage of policy-making.” Sounds fair.
Ministers hope eventually these deals will reduce consumer prices on European imports, as well as aiding our exporters. Some Brexiteers feel this will dent UK sovereignty, as British law aligns with the EU. The perennial question: are we willing to follow EU regulations to help business and lower prices?
As ex-MEP Richard Corbett says: “Brexit forced unpalatable choices on Britain: either to distance itself from Europe, outside the single market and the customs union, free to make separate trade deals… but at great cost to the British economy, or, like Norway, Switzerland and others, to align with the European single market… but be obliged to follow single market rules without full say on them”.
Ultimately, cash-strapped Brits might prefer lower prices.
EU–UK alignment
UK in a Changing Europe’s quarterly Divergence Trackers monitor how UK and EU regulations are diverging since Brexit.
The latest one finds that the Labour government is actively increasing regulatory alignments with the EU, with 21 cases identified – compared to only four in the previous tracker. These include alignments discussed at the summit on youth mobility, SPS, fisheries and emissions trading. There is also the Gibraltar Agreement with Spain.
Instances of active divergence include US and India trade deals, a sea bottom trawling ban, a deposit return scheme and the Immigration White Paper.
These positive steps are happening too slowly for some: the Liberal Democrats are calling for a Customs Union now, to grow the economy.
Scrutiny
Until 2024, the Commons had a European Scrutiny Committee to examine what impact EU law would have on the UK. This was disbanded, but Labour Movement for Europe Chair, Stella Creasy MP, argues that following the re-set summit, we again need to analyse potential impacts of the resulting ‘dynamic alignments’.
Creasy has cross-party support for her recent amendment advocating this, including from Reform’s Ricard Tice.
Slow progress
It’s going slowly. But it’s better than it was, or it could be. Starmer is on a tight-rope trying not to alienate different voters. But you can’t please all the people all the time.
Addendum: ECHR decision
Three UK politicians, including Caroline Lucas, brought a case to the European Court of Human Rights that the UK “failed… to investigate hostile State interference in its democratic elections.”
The Court heard the case this week and judged that the UK government response “did not violate the right to free elections”. It rejected that the government should investigate further any Kremlin election interference, despite “credible evidence of interference by Russia”.
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