There appears to be movement in thinking on the EU. Not quite a groundswell of action or a critical mass, but more a synchronicity of events which encourages those wanting closer alignment with Europe.
Perhaps events in the US are causing a swerve in opinion. So what’s happened already this year? Who has been saying what they think – or what the public thinks – in January?
- A YouGov poll on 21 January asked ‘Who would you rather have as a closer trading partner to the UK…?’ Of all adults, 53% said the EU, and 21% said the US. The younger you were, or if you were a woman, the more likely you were to say the EU. Even 20% of Reform UK supporters said the EU!
- Ed Davey, the LibDem leader, thinks that if Trump senses that the UK is desperate for a trade deal, he could impose damaging tariffs, as he did in his first term. He believes the UK needs to show the strength of having alternatives, by seeking other trade relationships, particularly in the EU Customs Union.
- Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, criticised the previous Tory government for mistakes and leaving the EU before it had a plan for growth outside it.
- James MacCleary, LibDem MP, presented a Bill for a Youth Mobility Scheme on 15 January and its vote passed in the Commons. Its second reading is on 25 July. Miguel Berger, Germany’s ambassador to the UK, said ‘concrete advantages’ of the EU/ UK relationship must be demonstrated, including the youth visa scheme. The EU may see it as the litmus test of whether Starmer is serious about his ‘reset’.
- Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, and current EU President, hosted Keir Starmer for talks on 17 January on security. In a speech he said that he dreamed that “instead of Brexit, we will have a Breturn”.
- Hilary Benn, Northern Ireland Secretary, has refused a request by NI’s unionist parties to trigger, for the first time, the ‘Stormont Brake’. This mechanism would prevent EU law coming into force in Northern Ireland. So now NI will have to align with new EU rules on packaging and labelling of chemicals.
- Trade Minister Douglas Alexander said to the Business & Trade Committee that “Brexit has not only inhibited cross-Channel trade to the EU, but risks making the UK a more closed economy.” The Independent has confirmed that £27 billion was lost in goods exports to the EU in 2022.
- David Gauke, former Conservative Justice Secretary, says that aside from the economic benefits, there are other reasons for a closer relationship: “Public opinion has largely concluded that the 2016 Leave vote was a mistake; and our political parties will eventually recognise that there are votes to be won by taking a more ambitious approach.”
- Maroš Šefčovič, the EU’s trade chief responsible for UK negotiations has said that the EU could consider a ‘pan-European [customs] area’ like the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM). It could cut red tape and smooth trade.
- Cabinet Office Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds, has confirmed that in June, the first UK/ EU summit will take place. And if ministers are now openly admitting the trade problems outside the EU, then by the time this summit comes, the mood may be right for more open-minded negotiations.
The government’s ‘growth’ goal may be unachievable without a better EU trading relationship, so at some point it needs to be openly confronted.
Will 2025 see politicians openly discussing our EU relationship or will they continue to avoid it like a haunted house at the end of a dark lane?
