In his conference speech, Andy Burnham’s outline of his plans for EU relations recognises that a majority of voters now appear to want further access to the EU, if not full membership. But, given the remaining savage opposition to the idea, there has been vehement disagreement on exactly how that should be approached.
This writer has spent 50 years in politics and 30 years in public relations, advising and consulting with a head of state, two prime ministers, several ambassadors, countless MPs and negotiating with Tony Blair’s No.10. All successful campaigns have to follow much the same rules. This, for what it is worth, is what this writer has learned about winning over your audience.
To win, or just to make a noise
Most of this was written before the Burnham speech on Tuesday. Fortunately, he said nothing which would cause it to be thrown in the bin, so the argument as originally written still stands.
The first question in politics, at whatever level, is to ask yourself honestly: “Do you want to win, or do you want to make a noise?” Making a noise can be satisfying of course, the louder and the more flatulent the better. It can also be a tactic towards success in some other project in which you are involved, to establish your presence.
But success is almost always going to demand an entirely different strategy. Most important, it has to be disciplined, and that is the most difficult requirement. You don’t let rip with your views on anything until you are quite certain it is the right moment, which will probably be never.
The red lines were never a serious policy
But so far, those in a position to effect any kind of serious approach to the EU seem only to want to make a noise. Keir Starmer spoke often of getting closer to Europe, but his red lines showed he simply wasn’t serious about it. Meanwhile, agonised EU returners among the electorate were left angry and frustrated, and vented their views on social media. Often the points made are realistic, sometimes not. That is not surprising while there has been no evidence until now that the government really does want to return either to the customs union, single market or full membership.
But following the Burnham speech, we now know how he will approach it – and fortunately it doesn’t veer too far from the ideas written here, so it doesn’t have to be written again.
All guns blazing only gives Farage ammunition
My esteemed colleague Mr Pecksniff has intimated, correctly, that going to the voters all guns blazing is the way to disaster. Many fervent EU supporters would have us marching off with bugles blaring and our battle honours flying high: no better way to rearm the xenophobes and give Farage et al. all the ammunition they need. Mr P wrote: “But if Andy Burnham is serious about the EU, which he seems to be in the long term, then he has to begin playing the mood music now, on something rather less raucous than trumpets, and at least make some recognition of the EU in his conference speech.”
Don’t frighten the horses xenophobes
Well, he has made that reference, and also set out a rather clever means to go about it. Though the polls are optimistic, Labour would probably be correct in assuming this sentiment is soft, and might be overturned in the bloody hurly-burly of any kind of early campaign.
So the strategy has to be softly-softly, taking care not to frighten either the horses or the xenophobes. Many of those will still be with us (the xenophobes, not the horses: keep up) so we are not going to try to persuade them. Public relations demands that we identify clearly the audiences we need to win over. They will not include supporters of Reform, but they will almost certainly include the don’t knows and those most easily persuaded.
Whatever next – an informed discussion
Burnham’s outline plan seems to be setting out all options, and then inviting an informed and collaborative public discussion – quite different from what we have seen at any point until now. On the contrary, Brexit was won on fear. But it is crucial that he makes progress on the other issues he addressed in his speech. It is crucial that he succeeds in winning the approval of the electorate on his other policies, so he gains the voters’ confidence. Without the electorate giving him and his plans the benefit of the doubt over other issues, they will be reluctant to follow him back to Europe.
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