A team from the French National Agency for the Safety of Medicines and Health Products and the French National Health Insurance service has just published the findings of a major study of mortality and the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine. It is based on the medical records of over 28 million people aged 18-59 across France.
The study found that getting a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine did not increase the chance of dying in four years after vaccination for adults aged 18 to 59 in France. In fact, people who had at least one vaccine dose were less likely to die from any cause, and much less likely to die from severe COVID-19, than people who stayed unvaccinated.
What the study wanted to know
The researchers wanted to see if COVID-19 mRNA vaccines were safe in the long term for younger and middle‑aged adults. They were interested in whether vaccinated people were more likely, less likely, or just as likely to die over several years compared with unvaccinated people.
Who was in the study
The study used French national health records for people aged 18 to 59 who lived in France, had used health care in 2020, and were still alive on 1 November 2021. It included 22.8 million people who were given at least one dose of an mRNA vaccine (mainly Pfizer or Moderna) and 5.9 million who had not been vaccinated by that time.
How the comparison was done
The team compared how many people died over four years in the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Because the two groups were different in age, health and social factors, the researchers used statistical methods to make the groups more similar before comparing deaths.
Main results
In the vaccinated group, 0.4% of people died during follow‑up, compared with 0.6% in the unvaccinated group. After adjustment, vaccinated people had about a one‑quarter lower chance of dying from any cause and about a three‑quarters lower chance of dying in hospital from severe COVID‑19.
What happened over time
The lower risk of death in vaccinated people was strongest in the first year after vaccination but remained smaller and still present over the full four‑year period. The pattern was similar whether or not deaths from COVID‑19 were counted, and it was seen in men and women, younger and older adults in this age range, richer and poorer areas, and people with and without long‑term illnesses.
Causes of death
In both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, the main causes of death were cancer, accidents and suicides, and heart and blood vessel diseases. Vaccinated people had lower risks of death than unvaccinated people for most major causes, including cancer, heart disease and lung disease.
What this means, and limits
The researchers are properly cautious about their findings. Over this very large population, they are clear that mRNA COVID‑19 vaccines do not increase long‑term death risk in adults aged 18 to 59, and indeed are linked to a small but lasting drop in overall mortality. However, this was not a randomised trial, so they cannot be certain that vaccinated people were not healthier or had safer lifestyles in ways that are hard to measure.
But, in any case, rumours of increased death risks from Covid vaccination are very clearly unfounded. When the next pandemic comes, it would be wise to trust the vaccines.
More from East Anglia Bylines
Friends of Bylines Network
There has never been a greater need for grassroots journalism that investigates the stories that really matter, holds power to account and champions the voices of everyday citizens. We are proudly powered by volunteers but what we do isn’t free.
STAND WITH US for independent, citizen-led journalism that makes democracy stronger, and you will even get some exclusive benefits.
