“I am deeply sorry.” It was an emotional moment from a man who famously shows little. Alok Sharma MP, President for COP26, was fighting back tears as he explained the last-minute changes to the agreement, making that profound apology as he did so.
India and China had pushed for the replacement of a pledge to ‘phase out’ coal with one to ‘phase down’ its use. A single word change, but one with potentially dire consequences.
A conference that ended in tears
To give credit to Sharma, the general consensus was that he had worked diligently to move to an agreement of real substance. Despite the watering down of the terms deep into injury time, it may be reflected that simply being able to coalesce countries with vastly different agendas around the winding down of fossil fuels and coal, was an achievement in itself. Indeed, it was the first climate deal to mention coal and fossil fuels specifically.
Nevertheless, Sharma’s tears speak volumes. While some progress was made, Sharma and others understand the gravity of what happened. 1.5C may have been kept alive, but it remains on life support.
Why the agreement at COP26 matters
Cynics may argue that even if a far more expansive agreement had been reached, it would have meant little. That argument certainly carries some weight given that past targets have been left unmet, most notably the $100 billion worth of funding promised to developing and vulnerable countries by 2020 to aid their energy transition and recovery from other climate disasters. The earliest this agreement is likely to be reached will now be 2023.
While sympathetic to this view, it should be recognised that there is a consensus around the direction of travel, even if there remains divergence about how quickly to get there. Certainly, the language of the final document does not reflect the scale of the emergency that faces us. Given the target of limiting warming to 1.5C by 2100, the revised projection of 2.4C is cause for serious concern. That level of warming would prove fatal to billions of people.
However, alongside this, it is worth remembering that in 2015, the planet was on track to warm by 3.6C. So, while 2.4C is still far north of where we need to be, revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) over the next year could mean that COP27 can pull us much closer to 1.5C.
The focus for 2022
Agreed in Paris, NDCs compelled countries to outline the measures they will take on a domestic basis to reduce emissions by 2030.
It may not have grabbed the headlines, but what the COP26 agreement did do was bind individual countries to come back next year – to a slightly warmer setting of Sharm El-Sheikh – with revised national plans. It means that countries will have to go further to align themselves with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. Countries will also have to submit long-term strategies to 2050 if they have not yet done so.
This should see much stronger short, mid and long-term Net Zero strategies being brought to the table within 12 months, driving temperature rise predictions further in the right direction.
The UK has a lot of work to do to reach Net Zero
It had been hoped that, with the UK hosting COP26, 2021 would have been a landmark year in the transition to Net Zero in this country, if only so we could have boasted of our successes on the international stage. However, despite a raft of different policy releases in the 12 months leading up to COP26, there remains a patchy, short-term, insubstantial and underfunded approach to the energy transition.
Off-shore wind, for example, is one of this country’s great success stories, and is helping to drive the UK towards a fully decarbonised electricity grid by 2032. Yet, this has been driven by Government support that is rarely afforded to many other technologies.
Indeed, when it comes to heat generation, there is a vastly different picture. Less than 7% of heat came from renewable sources in 2020, but rather than deliver support to heat in the same manner as to electricity, the Government closed the Non-Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) in March, with nothing of equivalence to take its place. On the domestic front, while the Government’s ambitions on heat pumps within homes and the new Boiler Upgrade Scheme are welcome, the progress is much too slow. Accelerating the energy transition domestically is necessary before reconvening with international partners at COP27.
An agreement that provides a foundation for change
‘Kicking the can down the road.’ ‘A missed opportunity.’ ‘A damp squib.’ These sentiments aren’t without justification, but they probably don’t tell the whole story. True, we can ill-afford to keep making plans for the future when action is needed now. But COP26 did provide a crucial framework for what needs to happen over the coming months and years. It may not have been cause for much elation – pessimism undoubtedly remains – but it has just about kept 1.5C within reach.
