Historically, Hertfordshire has been one of a group of Home Counties ringing London, and intertwined with the capital. Like Surrey and Buckinghamshire, it was prosperous, with significant rural, often green belt, areas. Economically and socially, the county was closely linked to London, with a significant commuting population, and a lot of local business relying on links to the city.
But there has always been a socially radical element: the county is home to the first two ‘garden cities’: Letchworth and Welwyn Garden City. And during the 1950s and 60s the demography and politics changed with the creation of three new towns, Stevenage, Hatfield and Hemel Hempstead, to house overspill population from London. Although these towns remain rather different from the rest of the county, the whole county has benefited from the economic energy radiating from London, and its constituencies are significantly more prosperous and better educated that the national average
The county now has 12 constituencies, and in 2019 eleven of them returned Conservative MPs. The exception was St Albans, which the LibDems won with a majority of nearly 6,000.
What kind of people live in the county?
Electoral Calculus classifies the population into seven ‘tribes’ based on attitudes to three broad factors – economics, nationalism/globalism and social issues. They describe the population of nine of the Hertfordshire constituencies as ‘kind young capitalists’, defined as “quite right-wing economically, but mildly globalist and socially liberal”. These are the most prosperous areas, with the highest proportion in upper social classes, and most likely to have voted Remain in the Brexit referendum. The ‘new towns’ of Hemel Hempstead and Stevenage are slightly different, defined as centrist, like much of the rest of the country on all three dimensions. The real exception is Broxbourne, in the far south east of the county, which is ‘strong right’ – economically very right-wing, nationalist and socially conservative. Culturally this constituency shares more of its features with the neighbouring constituencies of east London and south Essex.
Although the whole county is more prosperous than most of our region, there are real differences between areas. Average earnings are higher in the new constituency of Harpenden and Berkhamsted (£60,000) than in Stevenage (£45,000, average for the region), and the proportion of people in the upper social classes (ABC1) in those two is 80% and 56%.
Prosperity appears to be reflected in the county’s politics. The two most prosperous constituencies are St Albans (currently held by the Liberal Democrats, who also control the local council) and Harpenden and Berkhamsted, which the polls expect to elect the Liberal Democrats this time. Most of the rest of the county is predicted to swing to Labour, especially the new town constituencies won by the Conservatives with relatively small majorities in 2019 (Stevenage with 8,600, and Welwyn Hatfield with 11,000). The pollsters are very consistent in predicting a Labour win in Watford, despite the fact that the Liberal Democrats have a large majority on the local council.
In the three constituencies along the southern border of the county – South West Hertfordshire, Broxbourne and Hertsmere there is also a predicted swing away from Conservatives, but the polls suggest not big enough to lose the seats.
A shallow attachment to Labour
There are many reasons why Hertfordshire may have fallen out of love with the Conservatives, but that does not mean that they have become strongly attached to Labour. It seems more likely that they are rejecting a party which is perceived as chaotic and corrupt, with a leader who has not demonstrated that he can put those things right, and a poor track record on the economy and public services.
So, the alternative, led by a man perceived as decent, and hard working, with relevant experience and not too tarred with the brush of ‘socialism’, may well look a better bet. They may share his broad outlook on globalism and social issues, but their economic views will not chime with many in the Labour Party.
This time, it looks as if the county, like many similar areas, is going to give Labour the benefit of the doubt, but Starmer will need to demonstrate competence and real improvements to voters’ lives if he is to survive into the second term, which he is already planning for.
