In a not very surprising turn of events, former UKIP and now Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced this afternoon that he would stand as the Reform candidate in Clacton, Essex. Ten days ago, he had ruled out running, saying there was insufficient time to mount a campaign and he wanted to support Donald Trump in the US election. But at the “emergency” campaign event in London today, he confirmed his decision to stand and also to take over leadership of the Reform Party.
Farage’s political reversal
Farage, who played a prominent role in the Brexit referendum campaign, has tried – and failed – to win a seat in parliament seven times. But pinning his hopes on Clacton makes sense. It’s a town that heavily supported Brexit and has previously elected a UKIP MP, making it a logical choice for his latest run.
“I have decided, I’ve changed my mind – it’s allowed, you know,” Farage said at today’s event.
There had been fears on the left that Farage would repeat the deal he made with the Conservatives in 2019 when he stood down all Brexit Party candidates in Tory-held seats, ensuring Johnson’s landslide 80-seat majority. The Conservatives now face the prospect of losing even more votes to Reform as Farage is likely to energise voters on the right with this announcement. The only possible upside for the Conservatives is a hope that his localised campaign may limit his broader national influence.
Reactions to the announcement
Giles Watling, the sitting Conservative MP for Clacton, responded to Farage’s announcement, telling the BBC: “I will be pleased to show Nigel around Clacton so he can see what it is really like, but I am not prepared to see the constituency of Clacton sacrificed on the altar of his vanity.”
On X (formerly Twitter), fellow TalkTV host Julia Hartley-Brewer said: “He’s back!!! The election has just got interesting now … this is going to be fun!”
Political analyst Sam Freedman said: “It’s the only seat I think Reform can win (on current polling). Well this day couldn’t get much worse for the Tories.”
John Smith, a local resident, remarked, “Farage’s presence could shake things up here.”
Reform’s evolution
After leaving UKIP, Farage initially formed the Brexit Party in 2018. Then, following the UK’s departure from the EU in January 2021, the party rebranded as Reform UK, with Farage at the helm and Richard Tice as chairman. Later that year, Farage stepped back from frontline politics, passing the leadership to Tice. Today the two effectively switched back, allowing Farage to do TV debates and leader interviews.
Clacton’s political landscape
Clacton has been identified as a promising area for Reform due to its strong support for Brexit. In 2014, then-Conservative MP Douglas Carswell defected to UKIP, and in the 2015 local elections, UKIP secured 22 council seats in the district. At close to 70%, the town also recorded one of the highest Leave votes in the Brexit referendum, positioning it as a sympathetic battleground for Farage.
So far, nothing has been said about Anthony Mack, the Reform candidate who had already been selected for Clacton. Farage made no mention of him during today’s speech. Electoral Calculus had predicted he would get 13.2% of the vote with a zero chance of winning. But with his high profile, Farage has a far better chance of taking the seat.
As of today, these are the candidates standing in Clacton:
- Matthew Bensilum, Liberal Democrats
- Nigel Farage, Reform UK
- Natasha Osben, Green Party
- Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, Labour Party
- Giles Watling, Conservative Party
Clacton is by no means a shoo-in for Farage. His previous seven bids for Parliament have all been unsuccessful, losing in 1994 in Eastleigh, 1997 in Salisbury, 2001 in Bexhill, 2005 in South Thanet, 2006 in Bromley, 2010 in Buckingham and 2015 in South Thanet. But with the Conservatives polling so badly, and a higher profile now than he did then, he may well manage it this time.
Farage’s US U-turn
In May, Farage revealed he had a job offer to assist with Donald Trump’s re-election campaign, describing it as “very, very tempting” during an interview with Hartley-Brewer. But Trump’s legal troubles after he was convicted four days ago on 34 counts of falsifying business records, and his subsequent decline in poll numbers, may have influenced Farage’s decision to focus on UK politics.
Conservative Party reaction
This move by Farage will be a blow to the Conservatives who now stand to lose Clacton – one of their safest seats. Following today’s announcement, a Conservative Party spokesperson said: “Just yesterday, EU insiders openly voiced their expectation that Starmer would seek a softer Brexit deal, opening the door to rejoining the EU all together. That would mean uncontrolled immigration and betraying the will of the British people. Is Farage really willing to risk undoing his life’s work by handing Starmer a blank cheque to rejoin the EU?”
Rishi Sunak, when asked today if he was concerned, said: “A vote for anyone who is not a Conservative candidate is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in No. 10.”
The question we’ll have to wait until July 4th to answer is whether it was worth it for Farage to give up Mar-a-Lago for Clacton.
