On 7 May elections are being held for three county councils in our region – Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk. In all of them the full council is being elected, so there is scope for significant change, and current polling suggests that Reform UK will win large majorities in all three, mainly by taking seats from Conservatives, in a traditionally conservative region. Should we really expect this, and are there circumstances where this might change?
PollCheck have produced predictions of voting at the level of individual council seats, using a combination of national poll data with the known demographics and voting histories of individual voting areas. Although this model is probably imperfect, the size of these numbers is so large that even a large error in the modelling is unlikely to change the broad picture.
More importantly, the national polls, which drive this model, will change during the campaign, and if Reform’s national polling were to drop significantly, the picture would change.
However, at present, PollCheck predicts the following results (updated at 19th April):
In Essex, Reform win 58 of the 78 seats – a majority of 19
In Norfolk, Reform win 66 of 84 seats – a majority of 24
In Suffolk, Reform win 57 of 70 seats – a majority of 22
In what circumstances might this change?
Assuming that the party currently shown as runner-up defeats the Reform candidate, and nothing else changes, in Suffolk and Norfolk, Reform would only lose their majority if they lost all the seats where their currently projected lead is under 15%. In Essex the threshold is lower, at 8%. However, in all three cases they would remain the largest party. And since, in most of these seats, the runner-up to Reform is the Conservative, this does not mean a swing to the left, and a Reform/Conservative coalition would be possible.
Tactical voting might make a small impact. But there are only a few seats predicted as Reform wins where the combined left bloc vote share (Lab/Lib/Green) is larger than the Reform one. This includes 4 in Essex, 3 in Norfolk and 3 in Suffolk. But if all those voters voted tactically for the left bloc candidate most likely to win, they would not significantly change overall control of the council.
Who can win a majority?
On these figures, In Essex and Norfolk only Reform could reach a majority. Even if Reform were to lose all the seats no other party would pass the threshold. In Suffolk a left bloc coalition could theoretically achieve one, but only if Reform lost 48 of the 59 seats currently predicted for them. This seems improbable.
So what?
If Reform were to see their vote share drop significantly during the next fortnight the picture might change. This is possible: their national vote share in polls has fallen by around 6 points in the last 6 months, and this could have a disproportionate impact on seats. There may also be places where local factors come into play. There are, for example, 14 seats in Essex where an independent candidate is currently runner-up to the Reform one.
But it seems likely that in May we will see Reform administrations in all three counties. However, because of the government’s plans for local government, these councillors will only serve for two years before the county councils are abolished. Their room for manoeuvre will be limited by the budgets already set for the year to next March.
And in May next year, there will be elections for the new unitary authorities. Those elected then will form ‘shadow authorities’ for a year of preparation before taking full control in 2028, but their planning will inevitably overshadow the work of the outgoing county councils.
Reform may live to regret insisting that this year’s elections were held. In a year’s time they will have not been able to change much, but they will have become the incumbents. In difficult times voters often turn against whoever is in power.
In any event we seem likely to see what Reform can achieve in power.
In the meantime, don’t forget you must have a recognised form of voter ID, and the key dates are:
Last date to register to vote – 20 April
Last date to apply for a postal vote – 21 April
Last date to apply for a free voter ID – 28 April (5 pm)
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