No such thing as a safe Conservative seat

The latest Electoral Calculus polling suggests that there is no such thing as a safe Conservative seat in East Anglia. They are being squeezed on the left by progressives (Labour/Liberal Democrats/Greens), and the right by Reform UK. As a result, they do not have a majority of the predicted vote share in any constituency.

In 42 of the 61 seats, the progressive vote share is bigger than the Conservative one.

Electoral Calculus chart showing a predicted 41-seat win in the East of England — Map by MapChart

In all those seats, tactical voting would return a progressive MP, evicting a sitting Conservative in 36 of them. The remaining 19 seats would normally be seen as very safe for Conservatives, but in all these, defections to Reform UK have removed their predicted majority. Castle Point and Rayleigh & Wickford are the only constituencies where the Conservative vote share reaches 40%.

Across the region, Reform are polling around 14%, well ahead of the Liberal Democrats. But the figure is much higher in traditional Conservative strongholds, passing 20% in Castle Point, Basildon South & East Thurrock, and Clacton (the only constituency which ever had a UKIP MP).

The Greens have been growing in strength around the Suffolk/Norfolk border. The strongest Green seats are Bury St Edmunds (15%), and Waveney Valley (14%). They are also polling well in Norwich South, but there, challenging a popular and established Labour MP with a vote share of 59% is very unlikely to produce a change. But all three of these seats are predicted Labour wins.

Like the Greens, the Liberal Democrat strategy is to focus their limited resources on a few key constituencies. Although their overall vote share across the region is only 10%, they are predicted winners in four seats: North Norfolk, Cambridgeshire South and Chelmsford, plus St Albans, which they already hold.

In the past, Conservatives have often won because the opposition is split two or three ways. This seems much less likely this time. But there are three seats where the gap between Labour and Liberal Democrat vote share is less than 5%, meaning that a progressive split could let the Tory win. So, in those constituencies, anti-Conservative tactical voters need to make up their minds.

Questions

As the election approaches, and on election night, commentators will be hoping to answer a number of questions. Here are some of them.

Can Reform deny the Conservatives their safest seats? The great Conservative strongholds are in South East Essex – Rayleigh, Wickford, Castle Point, and Basildon South. But in all of these, Reform are polling well, and Independents play a large part in local politics. Reform is very unlikely to get elected but they might well deny the Conservatives a win. In 2019, Reform’s predecessor, the Brexit Party, withdrew to give the Conservatives a clear run. This time, they say they will not do the same. We shall see.
Will the Liberal Democrats consolidate their strengths in Cambridgeshire? They are strong in local government in parts of the county. Can they capitalise on that in parliamentary elections?
Will the Liberal Democrats take seats where they are strong in local government, but tipped for Labour by the pollsters – Watford, and Chelmsford?
Can the Greens get over the line in their prime target of Waveney Valley, where Labour currently lead in the polls? Constituency level polling is probably misleading, since this is an entirely new constituency, and polling techniques cannot reflect their strength in local government, nor the effect of a party focusing all its national efforts in a small number of seats.
Will the primary process in North West Essex concentrate the vote sufficiently to evict Kemi Badenoch? This is the last seat on the Electoral Calculus ranked list of predicted Labour wins. If a progressive candidate won here, on an even swing, the Conservatives would be reduced to under 100 MPs.
Will Labour and Liberal Democrats split the opposition to Tories in Ely & East Cambridgeshire, and Harpenden & Berkhamsted, where the three parties are neck and neck, or will tactical voting prevail?