The rise of Reform UK in opinion polls has been remarkable. Most polls report them overtaking Labour last spring, and remaining ahead ever since. They have been winning local by-elections and, in September, some polls gave them a national vote share of over 30%. Under first-past-the-post elections, with five parties in contention, that is enough to form a government.
Reform remains ahead in the polls, but since September, their polling numbers have fallen back a little. So, does this mean that people are changing their minds, or has Reform hit a natural ceiling of possible support?
Elections are won by a coalition of voters: those who believe in the policies and arguments, and those who just want to kick the incumbents. When so many people have seen no improvement in living standards since the financial crash of 2008, the latter are a substantial group.
But now Reform is getting more exposure it may be that people are looking harder and asking: are they competent, and do I actually agree with their policies?
Are they competent?
To form a government, a party needs at least 326 MPs, with sufficient organisation and discipline to make and implement decisions. Reform currently has five, having lost two since the election. In Great Yarmouth, Rupert Lowe was expelled for being too extreme, and in South Basildon, James McMurdock left, following allegations about Covid business loans. And the party has had three chairs in two years.
Traditionally, most MPs are elected after building experience, policy knowledge and organisational ability as local councillors. Currently Labour has 5,939 councillors, and even after a disastrous round of elections, the Conservatives still have 4,252. Reform has only 933 (less than 5% of the total), most of them new to politics.
Within six months of local elections, 5% of their new councillors had resigned or been expelled from the party. Their flagship county council in Kent has been mired in confusion, cancelling its plans to reduce spending which were the centre of their election bid, and with leaked videos of chaotic meetings.
For people who supported Reform because they saw Conservatives and Labour as chaotic and incompetent, Reform may begin to look like more of the same, just with less experience and competence.
And there are other negative factors. It does not look good for an avowedly nationalist party to be led in Wales by someone convicted of taking bribes from the Russian government. Furthermore, Nigel Farage himself has been embroiled in a row about racism, and his alleged involvement in extreme right politics in his youth.
And as Reform considers the serious possibility of being in government, they have abandoned their plans for big tax cuts, one of their central policies.
What do they believe?
But perhaps their plateauing poll numbers reflect more exposure of their views, as media scrutiny has ramped up. So, what do their supporters believe?
Using data from the very large British Election Study (BES), Professor Ben Ansell has analysed the profiles of party supporters on a range of issues. He began by mapping how they differ on issues of economics, from left to right, and on cultural issues from conservative to progressive.
Four parties follow predictable patterns, from the Greens (left/progressive), to the Conservatives (right/conservative). But Reformers are different. While they share cultural attitudes with Conservatives, many of them, especially people in routine and intermediate jobs, share their economics with Labour.
Three key policies
He then looked at three policy issues where Reform voters are distinctly out of step with the rest of the electorate: immigration, environment and discrimination.
The BES scores attitudes to immigration on a scale of 0-10 (from ‘far fewer’ to ‘many more). On this scale, the average UK voter scores 3, wanting to see some reduction in immigration. With scores around 5, Greens, Labour and Liberal Democrats are all broadly content with current levels, while Conservatives want a reduction.
But Reformers are distinct: despite all economists agreeing that reducing legal immigration would seriously damage the economy, most Reformers want it radically reduced or stopped altogether
The BES also asks whether economic growth should have priority over the environment. Labour, Liberal Democrats and Don’t Knows want a balance of the two, but the other two parties are very clear outliers. While Greens overwhelmingly prioritise the environment, Reformers are happy to sacrifice the environment for economic growth.
But the most striking issue is attitudes to discrimination. BES asks whether particular groups are victims of discrimination, and views on this fall into two distinct groups. Most people agree that there is some discrimination against women, ethnic minorities, gay, trans and disabled people. But Reformers take the opposite position: they think that the victims of discrimination are men and white British people.
Is Reform really a threat to the established parties?
On competence, the jury is still out. Reform have yet to demonstrate that they have sufficient capable people, and the organisation and political skills to build a parliamentary majority. Even if all Conservative MPs defected to Reform, they would still be 200 seats short of the winning line.
And on policy issues their supporters are clearly out of step with majority opinion. To summarise crudely: Reform voters believe that white men are victims of discrimination; that the environment should be sacrificed for economic growth; and all immigration should be stopped. There clearly is a significant body of people who believe these things. But there is no evidence that they represent anything like a majority.
These views are so out of step with majority opinion that Reform’s ability to raise their support seems limited. And further scrutiny of their competence and policies may erode the share they have now.
But of course under first-past-the-post elections, with five parties in contention, they only need 30% of votes in the right places to form a government. The latest polls still show them in the lead, hovering just below that line. They may be reaching a ceiling, but it just might be high enough.
Ben Ansell’s Substack on this issue, with much more detail, can be found here.
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