The town of Rayleigh is a market town some 32 miles east of London, nestled between Basildon to the west and the City of Southend to the east. It has a population of over 32,000. Historically, it has been the safest Conservative seat in the region. But this just might change next month.
The history
Rayleigh is named in the 1086 Domesday book, and the remains of a Norman castle, known as the Mount reveals its ancient heritage. Wander a little further through the town and the sylvan landscape of the royal park where Henry VIII courted Anne Boleyn will delight any visitor. The twentieth century brought a grisly murder to the town, and a plane crash. Once upon a time, young boy racers from east London, allegedly including future formula one driver Johnny Herbert and the original Top Gear ‘Stig’ Perry McCarthy, careered around the Rayleigh Weir junction before turning their cars westward and proceeding swiftly back up the A127 to Romford.
The politics
Rayliegh and Wickford has long been a Conservative stronghold, and Electoral Calculus describes the constituency as ‘strong right’. The population is older than the rest of the region and less educated. It is much less ethnically diverse, with a very high proportion of people who voted for Brexit.
The constituency boundaries have changed a number of times. In turn, it has been part of South East Essex, Rochford, Rayleigh, and most recently Rayleigh & Wickford. But the constant factor is that, since 1945, it has always voted Conservative. In 1997, the year of the Blair Labour landslide election, it elected one of the most right-wing Conservative MPs, Mark Francois, who has held the seat ever since. His views, as a strong Brexiter, and leading member of the European Research Group are a good match for many of his constituents.
Who is standing in Rayleigh and Wickford?
There are five candidates standing .
Mark Francois, representing the Conservatives, has been the MP for the town for over 20 years.
James Hedges is the Labour candidate. After his selection Mr Hedges said “I’m thrilled to be chosen to stand for Labour in Rayleigh and Wickford. I have lived in the area for 10 years.”
Stewart Mott is representing the Liberal Democrats. Mr Mott is a local councillor in Wickford.
The Reform candidate is Grant Randall. Mr Randall is a local resident and small business owner.
Chris Taylor is representing the Green Party. He grew up in the neighbouring town of Hockley.
A threat from the right
In 2019, Mark Francois had the third largest majority in the region, with 73% of the vote, and all current polls suggest that he will retain the seat, with Labour in second place. However, the latest poll, from Ipsos, shows him only 6 points ahead of Labour, and with Reform in a strong third place. It is just conceivable that in the last fortnight, Reform might eat sufficiently into that 6-point lead, to give the seat to Labour, for the first time in living memory.
For those seeking to vote tactically, the stopthetories.vote tactical voting website advocates voting for Labour. The latest Ipsos poll shows the combined vote share for Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens as 44%, well ahead of the Conservatives’ 39%. So, as long as Reform takes votes away from Conservatives, a tactical vote really could overturn one of the most Conservative seats in the region.
History repeating itself?
If past elections and polling are to be believed, then the residents of Rayleigh and Wickford will still vote Conservative on 4 July. But the rise of Reform could knock a hole in that majority, and combined with some tactical voting, could give the seat to Labour for the first time since 1945. For the residents that wish for it to be different, to quote the song ‘Lose Yourself’ by Eminem,
“This opportunity comes once in a lifetime.”
