For some months, most opinion polls have showed a steady, slow shift in support from Conservative to Labour. But the last month has seen this accelerate dramatically, and all pollsters agree. The gap is now higher than at any time since the 1990s. How might this change the political landscape in the East of England?
Be careful
Opinion polls are not predictions. They only tell us what people told a pollster on a particular day. Like real election results, they can be influenced by issues in the news at the time. When people are angry about a particular issue they may express that to a pollster, but later return to their original position. Poll results also have a margin of error, usually plus or minus 3-4%, so small differences should usually be ignored. It is never wise to give too much weight to a single poll, which can be influenced by random factors.
No likelihood of polling error
However, something remarkable has happened in the last month. Since Liz Truss became Prime Minister a month ago, ten polling companies have published 31 polls. None show the predicted “new leader bounce” . Quite the reverse: the average of these polls is a 14-point lead for Labour. In the eight polls carried out since Kwasi Kwarteng’s “mini-Budget” on 23 September, that lead has increased to an, almost unprecedented, average of 23 points. Techne is the only polling company whose September polls average as low as 10 points.
This looks like more than simple dissatisfaction with the Conservatives. Although YouGov and Redfield and Wilton both report that 40% of 2019 Conservative voters would not vote Conservative today, YouGov reports that 17% of 2019 Conservative voters, and half of 2019 Liberal Democrat voters now plan to switch to Labour.
So there can be no question of a random polling error. We have to believe that the Labour Party has a substantial lead. Although the next General Election could be two years away, without some major event to change public opinion, the chances of Labour securing a working majority in the House of Commons look better than at any time since the mid-2000s.
What could this mean in the East of England?
Assuming an even swing across all seats (unlikely in practice), these poll numbers suggest that no Conservative MP with a majority of less than 20,000 is safe. Here is a summary of possible changes in the East, at different levels of swing.
Labour holding its position
It is probably safe to assume that in all scenarios Labour will retain the 5 seats it currently holds in the region:
| Constituency | Sitting MP | Current majority |
| Cambridge | Daniel Zeichner | 9,639 |
| Norwich South | Clive Lewis | 12,760 |
| Luton South | Rachel Hopkins | 8,756 |
| Luton North | Sarah Owen | 9,247 |
| Bedford | Mohammad Yasin | 145 |
A low prediction for Labour
On the lowest September poll lead of 10 points, Labour would take a further 8 seats from the Conservatives in the East. This seems very likely, and on that swing, Labour could form a government with a Parliamentary majority of 12. That would probably be workable, especially with some support (formally or informally) from the Liberal Democrats.
On this 10 point swing, the eight Conservative seats in the East most likely to fall to Labour are:
| Watford | Dean Russell | 4,433 |
| Peterborough | Paul Bristow | 2,580 |
| Ipswich | Tom Hunt | 5,479 |
| Norwich North | Chloe Smith | 4,738 |
| Colchester | Will Quince | 9,423 |
| Stevenage | Stephen McPartland | 8,562 |
| Welwyn Hatfield | Grant Shapps | 10,955 |
| Thurrock | Jackie Doyle-Price | 11,482 |
A high prediction for Labour
On the highest average September poll lead of 16 points, Labour would take a further 13 seats from the Conservatives:
| Rochford and Southend East | James Duddridge | 11,286 |
| Hemel Hempstead | Michael Penning | 14,563 |
| Hitchin and Harpenden | Bim Afolami | 6,895 |
| Huntingdon | Jonathan Djanogly | 19,383 |
| Hertford and Stortford | Julie Marson | 19.620 |
| South Cambs | Anthony Browne | 2,904 |
| South East Cambs | Lucy Frazer | 11,490 |
| North East Hertfordshire | Oliver Heald | 18,189 |
| Southend West | Anna Firth | 14,459 |
| South West Bedfordshire | Andrew Selous | 18,583 |
| Harlow | Robert Halfon | 14,063 |
| South Norfolk | Richard Bacon | 21,275 |
| South West Hertfordshire | Gagan Mohindra | 14,408 |
An extreme swing
At the time of writing, there has been an unprecedented swing from Conservative to Labour. Labour numbers have risen at the same time as Conservatives falling. If Labour were to keep the average 23 point lead it has achieved since the mini-Budget (and in the last week three polls have produced higher figures), they would win a further 18 seats, some of which have never returned a Labour MP before. The seats are:
| Chelmsford | Vicky Ford | 17,621 |
| Waveney | Peter Aldous | 18,002 |
| Suffolk Coastal | Thérèse Coffey | 20,533 |
| North East Bedfordshire | Richard Fuller | 24,283 |
| Mid Bedfordshire | Nadine Dorries | 24,664 |
| Hertsmere | Oliver Dowden | 21,313 |
| North West Cambs | Shailesh Vara | 25,983 |
| Harwich and North Essex | Bernard Jenkin | 20,182 |
| Broadland | Jerome Mayhew | 21,861 |
| Bury St Edmunds | Jo Churchill | 24,988 |
| Mid Norfolk | George Freeman | 22,594 |
| Central Suffolk and North Ipswich | Dan Poulter | 23,391 |
| Broxbourne | Charles Walker | 19,807 |
| South Suffolk | James Cartlidge | 22,897 |
| West Suffolk | Matthew Hancock | 23,194 |
| Great Yarmouth | Brandon Lewis | 17,663 |
| Epping Forest | Eleanor Laing | 22,173 |
| South Basildon and East Thurrock | Stephen Metcalfe | 19,992 |
The Conservative strongholds
This would leave the Conservatives with only 13 “safe” seats in the region.
| North West Norfolk | James Wild | 19,992 |
| Basildon and Billericay | John Baron | 20,412 |
| Saffron Walden | Kemi Badenoch | 27,594 |
| Braintree | James Cleverly | 24,673 |
| Witham | Priti Patel | 24,082 |
| South West Norfolk | Elizabeth Truss | 26,195 |
| North Norfolk | Duncan Baker | 14,395 |
| Brentwood and Ongar | Alex Burghart | 29,065 |
| North East Cambs | Stephen Barclay | 29,993 |
| Rayleigh and Wickford | Mark Francois | 31,000 |
| Maldon | John Whittingdale | 30,014 |
| Clacton | Giles Watling | 24,702 |
| Castle Point | Rebecca Harris | 26,634 |
MRP polling confirms the picture
Polls are conducted nationally, but people vote in constituencies, and constituencies vary in many ways, so swings do not have the same effect everywhere. Polling samples are large enough to predict national vote share, and sometimes regional variations, with some accuracy, but they are far too small to produce results in individual constituencies.
MRP polling (multilevel regression with poststratification) produces results at constituency level. It takes what the national polls tell us about the voting intentions of particular subgroups of the population (people over 65, graduates, women…) and matches that to the population makeup in each constituency. This can produce a more refined prediction of the likely result of a general election.
On 25 September, Savanta ComRes published an MRP poll conducted for LabourList. In the Eastern region it exactly matches the low prediction above. Labour would increase its seats in the Eastern region from 5 to 13, and would have a working majority in Westminster.
Conclusion: a nightmare for the Conservatives
All the polling now suggests that Labour is on course to form a government. Redfield and Wilton’s latest poll reports that 40% of voters believe that Labour will form the next government, either in majority or minority.
Some of the wilder results of the last few weeks will probably fade, at least a little. It is likely that some of the anger generated by the Mini-Budget will diminish, especially if there is any sign of the economic growth which the government is promising.
However, there are reasons to doubt this. Firstly, the evidence that “trickle down” growth works is slim at best. Secondly, despite the government’s energy price cap, most people are seeing their energy bills rise dramatically. Inflation is rising rapidly, and the instability of the pound in international markets will push up the price of imports. Many businesses are closing because of rising costs and a shortage of workers. And the “balancing the books” which the government promised seems likely to mean serious cuts to public services.
The Conservative Party Conference next week looks like a nightmare for the Prime Minister and Chancellor. It is often said that, in the UK, parties lose elections because people lose faith in a government, not because they fall in love with their opponents. This is especially true under our first past the post system, where there are usually only two contenders. With all the polls pointing in the same direction, it looks as if, after 12 years of Conservative rule, we have arrived at a tipping point.
