A few weeks ago, there came the revelation that Robert Jenrick had an unrecorded meeting with Rupert Murdoch, which in the eyes of the more conspiracy-minded observers suggested the Dirty Digger was lining up a second protégé for the either/or last two leadership candidates to put before the members. (He had already had a secret unminuted and off-diary meeting with Kemi Badenoch in New York.) Badenoch and Jenrick. The idea was that he hoped to have the ear – or possibly some other more sensitive part of the anatomy – of both the final two contenders.
Now look where we are.
Tories in shock over Cleverly’s dismissal
James Cleverly’s failure to make the last two is put down to some last minute tactical shenanigans by his supporters that went wrong, and the idea that the party leader will be either Jenrick or Badenoch will be a terrifying shock for at least half the parliamentary party.
Had Cleverly gone through, with the MPs’ momentum behind him, whichever of the others survived might have been seen as the favourite among the members to beat him. Being the MPs’ favourite can be a considerable disadvantage in the eyes of the members, who they tend to hold to account for the party’s woes. But he would probably have acted as something of a restraint on the claims of his opponent. He has proved himself shamelessly able to champion causes in which he does not believe – he called Rwanda a “batshit” idea, but still threw hundreds of millions at it.
Keeping alight the sacred flame, not embracing reality
Now, there is no brake on the extremes to which Jenrick and Badenoch will chase each other, no doubt egged on by Suella Braverman whingeing on the sidelines that she would have gone even further.
This is a dangerous course, as Labour knows to its historic cost. When the choice comes down to keeping alive the sacred flame, to being right instead of appealing to the voters, the party becomes little more than a sect. Any serious political party has an obligation to try to persuade voters of its electoral credentials. When it gives up trying to persuade, and turns instead exclusively to its true believers, then it has given up on reality as being unworthy of its attention.
Almost all politicians want their ideals to triumph unscathed. Members of any party have always seen any kind of compromise as selling out. (One of Jeremy Corbyn’s great selling points by his supporters was that he never compromised.) But voters want compromise, they want the parties to be grown-up enough to work together.
Five leaders in eight years, and no further forward
The Conservative Party however has long since distanced itself from a reality which pig-headedly refuses to twist through the far right convolutions the party demands of it. Hence, this is the Tories’ fifth leadership contest in eight years. They simply don’t know who they are any more, or what they want. Given the two finalists, it is likely the sixth will be along very shortly.
The esteemed diarist of East Anglia Bylines, Mr Pecksniff, is a man never known to be wrong. On 2 September 2022, days before Liz Truss was chosen as Tory leader and so prime minister, and in anticipation of her triumph, he observed:
“For Sunak and his supporters, the fight goes on, confident that the wheels will fall off quickly. Then to whom would the party turn for its next saviour? Neither they nor the public could stomach another farce like this summer’s. They would be looking for a shoo-in. And who else could they possibly call upon but the party’s recent second choice?”
What do we want? Unicorns!
And so it came to pass. And on the present leadership race, Pecksniff has written of whichever incumbent rises to the top of the stagnant pool:
“That leader will occupy their siege perilous – the position of the unfortunate incumbent at Arthur’s round table who would die if he didn’t find the Holy Grail. He or she will be expected to work wonders within a couple of months, while rivals, members and the commentariat will turn on them, so another leader will emerge.”
This will happen again, because over the past few catastrophic years the membership has been led to believe in unicorns, and it’s unicorns they want from their new leader. So, the only way to become leader at the moment is to promise them unicorns. Since those creatures don’t exist, the new leader is going to fail. Especially since there will be several beaten rivals eager to point out the lack of unicorns.
No unicorns means yet another contest
Cleverly is going to be ready for the failure of the new incumbent, which means of course that he will be working towards it. Along, no doubt, with other defeated candidates. But this time when the winner is forced to resign, there will no shoo-in as Sunak after Truss. It will be another bloody battle. So still no light at the end of the tunnel.
How far down this road can the party go, before casting itself adrift entirely from what there is of the country’s political consensus?
“Be more normal,” Cleverly entreated his party. Little chance of that. Received wisdom is that both Jenrick and Badenoch are unelectable, and this is probably one of those occasions when received wisdom is correct.
End of the road as a serious electoral party?
So what do the tea leaves foretell? The new leader will probably beat Liz ‘the lettuce’ Truss in terms of longevity in position. Chaotic though it would be, the Tories could do with the next catastrophe occurring well before the next election, since it is not only Keir Starmer who will have been dancing on the tables on Wednesday evening. Much of the Tories’ trouncing at the election was at the hands of the Liberal Democrats, and much of the reason was that the party had chosen to fight their politics on the same ground as Reform.
That left a gaping hole which the LibDems were happy to fill. Tory seats are almost always most susceptible to a challenge from that quarter, and many more are likely to be up for grabs in 2029. So, by the next election the Conservatives will have a leader who is not one of the two candidates left standing this time, and after it they may no longer be the official opposition. At that point there is no guarantee that they will continue to be a serious political force.
