May 2nd 1997 was a memorable day in British politics. At 3.10 in the morning the election result in Enfield Southgate was announced: the government minister, Michael Portillo had unexpectedly lost a safe Conservative seat, and it became clear that Tony Blair’s Labour Party was set for a landslide victory.
This time the opinion polling is so consistent that a Labour landslide will not be a surprise. Indeed, the latest constituency level poll from Survation suggests that the Conservatives could end the election with less than five MPs in the region (down from 51 in 2019). The resulting parliamentary party could be a strange set of eccentric survivors, with very limited experience and expertise.
That landslide is probably unlikely, and other pollsters are more cautious. But there are still some high profile Conservatives in the East of England region who stand to lose their seats. Among the 16 current or former Ministers in our region, several have already jumped ship, not relishing a strenuous but doomed campaign, and years on the opposition benches. So among the prominent figures, who might we be saying goodbye to?
Secretaries of State at risk
The least surprising will be the departure of Grant Shapps, currently Defence Secretary and MP for Welwyn Hatfield. He has the smallest majority of any of our Cabinet Ministers (10,955) and all polls predict that the seat will go to Labour. Shapps is also perhaps the most colourful of the list, having run a string of controversial businesses before entering parliament. Since 2022 he has held four Cabinet positions, and was previously co-chair of the Conservative Party.
The next potential loss is Lucy Frazer, who has been Secretary of State for Culture Media and Sport since 2023. She was elected MP for South East Cambridgeshire in 2015, and had a majority of 11,490 in 2019. The constituency boundaries have changed, but polls predict that a general Liberal Democrat surge across much of Cambridgeshire will lose her the new seat of South Cambridgeshire. She is a Barrister, and has served as Minister in four Departments before being promoted to the Cabinet. She is one of the few current Ministers who voted Remain in 2016.
Therese Coffey was Secretary of State for Health until resigning on health grounds in 2023. She has been MP for Suffolk Coastal since 2010. In the current climate, her 2019 majority of 20,550 is no longer seen as safe. She has served in three Cabinet posts, and has been closely associated with both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. She was campaign manager for Liz Truss’ bid for the Party leadership, and then served as her Deputy Prime Minister. She consistently supported Boris Johnson, over ‘partygate’, and the Chris Pincher affair. She has been involved in a number of controversial issues, including plans to sell off forests, and the sewage debates when she was Secretary of State for Health. Current polling suggests that she may hold her seat, though with a much reduced majority.
Priti Patel was Home Secretary from 2019 to 2023. In her constituency of Witham in Essex, she had a majority of 24,082 in 2019. She was a Leaver, on the right of the Party, having been one of the authors of the 2012 ‘Britannia Unchained’ publication, and one of the originators of the Rwanda asylum plan. In 2017 Theresa May forced her to resign as Secretary of State for International Development after she held a series of unauthorised meetings with Israeli politicians. Then, in 2019 Boris Johnson appointed her Home Secretary, during which time she was found to have breached the Ministerial Code by bullying staff. She resigned her post when Boris Johnson resigned. Current polling gives Labour an outside chance of taking the seat.
James Cleverly has been Home Secretary since last November, and has been MP for Braintree in Essex since 2015, where his 2019 majority was 24,673. He is a Lieutenant Colonel in the Royal Artillery Reserve. He previously served as Foreign Secretary and Education Secretary, and as Co-Chair of the Party. He introduced the Rwanda Bill to the House of Commons. In 2016, he was a prominent opponent of a Labour attempt to require landlords to make premises fit for human habitation. Survation, whose polls consistently produce higher numbers for Labour, suggest that Labour might take the seat, though others disagree.
Oliver Dowden has been Deputy Prime Minister since February 2023. He has been MP for Hertsmere since 2015, and his 2019 majority was 21,313. He was an active supporter of Boris Johnson’s bid for leadership. He served as a Special Adviser in the Cameron government, and had a particular role in political communication. As Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport he was instrumental in banning Huawei from Britain’s 5G communications network. He opposed the return of stolen museum artefacts and spoke out against ‘woke’ culture. Hertsmere is a prosperous commuter area of south Hertfordshire, bordering on two Liberal Democrat target seats – Watford and St Albans, but most polls currently think he will hold the seat.
Liz Truss was the shortest serving Prime Minister in history, lasting 49 days in 2022, during which the UK experienced a series of economic shocks. She was elected MP for South West Norfolk in 2010, and her 2019 majority was 26,195. She is firmly on the right of the Party, a co-author with Priti Patel of Britannia Unchained. She is very active in right wing international circles. Although some polls see this as a safe Conservative seat, there is a serious possibility that the Conservative vote will be divided by a former Conservative, James Bagge, who is standing against her as an Independent. Bagge is an archetypal high Tory, a barrister and former army officer, former High Sheriff of Norfolk, and heir to a Baronetcy.
Kemi Badenoch is Secretary of State for Business and Trade, and Minister for Equalities. She was elected to the seat of Saffron Walden (now renamed, with modified boundaries, as North West Essex) in 2017. She is regarded as a potential leader for the Party. Her 2019 majority of 27,594 would usually be regarded as unchallengeable, but local activists have been holding ‘primary’ elections to try to organise tactical voting against her. She has held two Cabinet level posts, in addition to various junior Minister ones. The polls suggest that she is the safest of the MPs on this list.
Counting on the night
In the early hours of 5 July we will know whether the predicted Labour landslide is real. There are a variety of ways of ranking seats, but we have listed them here in rough order of safety for the Conservatives. The dividing line falls somewhere between Welwyn Hatfield and Suffolk Coastal. If Grant Shapps holds his seat it is almost certain that Labour have no majority. If Therese Coffey loses hers, Labour will have a working majority. If Cleverly and Dowden lose theirs, the Labour majority is likely to be over 100.
Corrected from an earlier version which erroneously gave Lucy Frazer’s constituency as South Cambridgeshire.
