With our domestic politics in a state of flux, it is natural that we should sift through the tea leaves to scrutinise the claims, counter-claims, polls, reports and newspaper headlines to try to spot what really is going on. So a new analysis this week of current polling trends may throw some light on what is happening.
The analysis looks at how the right and left blocs are competing. Soon after the 2024 election, the left’s vote began to plummet in accordance with frustrations with the new government. By the latter part of last year, the right were clearly in the ascendant.
Then came the Gorton and Denton by-election.
That pitched two parties of the left and centre left against the new champions of the right, Reform. A straight head-to-head contest; and of course, the Greens won handsomely, Reform were thwarted and Labour kippered.
It had been clear that the nation was watching the struggle intently, and there seems every reason to believe that public perceptions of our political ding-dong have been affected by it. It appears to have had a Pygmalion effect: because voters see the Greens as being the new johnnies-about-town, and they are prepared to change their voting habits to support that perception. Consequently, the result has dramatically revived the hopes of the left.
Is this a true renaissance? It is too early to be sure but watch the narrative. From that, dear reader (and as your diarist’s colleagues become bored delight at hearing), all things flow. Reform no longer hold the storyline: it is more likely to be the Greens.
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There remains a nagging uncertainty as to how closely this may align itself to reality, but it appears the Greens’ by-election success may have changed everything then, not only for the Greens themselves but in voters’ perceptions of the political landscape. It has naturally informed their expectations in the local elections, with London in particular, in their sights. Heavy artillery is now ranged on Labour’s hegemony there, from Reform too, and after the votes are counted, we may need to reassess that landscape again.
To add insult to injury, it seems Zack Polanski and his chums are talking to the trade unions to pinch some of Labour’s previously nailed-on financial support. But beware hubris. The heady scent of power can prove intoxicating but should not be allowed to obscure the problems it brings with it.
No party is more Jesuitical than the Greens. One of the side issues arising from their recent meteoric rise in domestic politics is that everyone wants a piece of the action. And the Greens naively are likely to welcome them all with open arms to prove how transparent and inclusive they are. Even to the Trots, who simply and quite blatantly want to take them over, as they have so many organisations in the past.
For some members there will need to be a transmutation. There was a huge contretemps last weekend over a motion called ‘Zionism is racism’. (It was put back till the autumn.) The party has attracted some unsavoury characters from the far left, as well as some of the barmier single-issue warriors.
So the Greens’ astonishing rise brings its own difficulties, for some of which – like lack of experience – they can’t be held responsible. But in future the party must become aware that it represents not only its members but a significant part of the electorate. That is likely to need a challenge to the prevailing culture and outlook of some of its members, and sustaining its new position will depend upon that.
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So by all accounts, Labour HQ is unlikely to require the singing of te deums of rejoicing after next month’s local elections. According to the Sunday Times, results of their internal polling are “apocalyptic”. It suggests they will lose every one of their 50 seats in Sunderland, and suffer heavy losses in London, to both Reform and Greens. Beyond the local elections, Labour presently holds 59 out of London’s 75 parliamentary seats, yet one minister claims there are “no safe seats anymore”, and the party is in for a bloodbath.
By the pricking of their thumbs, they must realise the mise en scène is somewhat unforgiving. Whether or not the outcome might reasonably be designated a rout will have to wait until the bodies are pulled from the field of battle, of course. But meanwhile we, the humble voters, might reasonably wonder how maladroit Labour permitted itself to get into this mess. They had a landslide majority and a desperate wish for change behind them.
On the day after 2024’s general election, Pecksniff wrote: “Faces at the polling station were grim. People were voting for Labour, but with a heavy heart and, sometimes, anger… Where was the party’s moral crusade, their passion for putting things right after the long 14 years?”
And so it has gone on. For nearly two years, Keir Starmer has ignored optimism as though it were his worst enemy, has seemed deliberately to mistrust any thoughts of hope. He began at odds with his party, and though two years later he appears to have crushed them into submission, relations with the electorate have plunged his government into the abyss.
This week, Sir Keir opened Labour’s local elections campaign with talk of “Labour’s values”, which his opponents in the party would claim he has been ignoring since he arrived at No.10. What will it take for him to change? He is simply the wrong man for the job.
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One of the most pressing of Labour’s internal feuds at the moment is the savage warfare being waged between Shabana Mahmood at the Home Office and many backbenchers, over Labour’s immigration policy. It seems that Ms Mahmood’s team is playing dirty, pouring ordure over its critics, which no doubt will increase speculation that Morgan McSweeney is already back in the saddle.
This week, Ms Mahmood declared: “If we retreat to the comfort of fairy tales, a nightmare will follow”. By “fairy tales” she was presumably talking about what she sees as the impossibility of having a humane immigration policy. One of the wise men remarked: “I could never vote for a party of which this woman is a member”. The rest of the saloon bar sighed their assent. Yet feedback from the Labour backbenches suggests there are many MPs who would agree with her, though many would not. “Quislings” is a description from one.
So where does that leave those many readers who are used instinctively to voting Labour? Could you vote for such a party? Perhaps a letter to your MP to check their moral credentials might be in order.
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Nigel Farage would do anything to avoid having Reform appear as a falling market. The party’s success is based on the flimsiest of narratives, and it has always been a matter of just how long they could keep up the pretence of the imaginary world they present to the credulous, as against the reality around us. Without Britain in 1940, they would have no image to present.
“The clocks go back this weekend,” trumpets one Reformer. “I’m setting mine to 1940 when this country had some bollocks!”
Astute readers will already have noted that last weekend the clocks went forward, not back…
It is no wonder Mr Farage is so alarmed at present-day reality. He abases London as Sodom or Gomorrah and prates about its high crime rate.
But, dear reader, the crime rate in London is much lower than – checks notes – Clacton.
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One counter-intuitive outcome seems to be that some Reform voters are prepared to switch from right to left and vote Green (£); but this is only a surprise if you assume that the electorate always follows policies. Few do, to the chagrin of the parties who spend so long preaching about them. Many follow their values, their instincts; and if your instinct is to go for the party most likely to give the status quo a kicking, then (particularly after the by-election result) the Greens have become a viable alternative to Reform.
The right is also hamstrung by the likely reluctance of their followers to consider tactical voting. The electorate is becoming rather sophisticated at this by now, but it seems to have less appeal to the far right. Here, hate is a driving factor in voting, and the hatred between Reform and Restore is visceral. None of their supporters is going to go to the other in order to keep out the left.
There remains the possibility of some kind of deal between Reform and the Tories, though hardly aux petits soins. But in an extraordinary reversal of roles, there are signs this week that Reform is beginning to train their heavy artillery on the Conservative Party, for fear that they will split the vote. And it is difficult to announce an arrangement when each is busy traducing the other in public.
In any case, Reform is now well stocked with Tories. How to explain how those who got the country into this mess are just the boys to get us out?
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‘Lettuce’ Liz Truss continues to pursue her very public descent into the darker reaches of her mind this week with another wheeze. Having just been paid a few quid to appear at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Texas, she announces she will bring the whole shebang over here this summer.
So another humiliating disaster awaits. “We will be steering well clear of it,” said a Reform spokesperson, and Kemi Badenoch has “no plans” to attend. That could only ever be the response. Quite apart from the disaster and ignominy awaiting any Truss plan, no party is eagerly going to sign up to a rival’s idea.
Ms Truss is also supporting the idea of a British citizen’s ‘right to bear arms…’
Records show that, 18 hours after the launch of her YouTube channel, she had only 1,500 views. We must assume she will end her career sitting in a barrel, spouting her best career ideas as part of a circus sideshow.
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Meanwhile, no thought of thankless labour and unsatisfied ambition for Tom Faulkner, who wants to be the Conservative councillor for Aldeburgh and Leiston. Presently, much of that most beautiful part of Suffolk in spring smells, instead of wild flowers, of money. It is money being made in accommodating the building of Sizewell C.
Ancient lanes and hidden meadows have disappeared. Areas around those of special scientific interest now look like the Somme. Nature and tourism are the basis of the area’s economy. Or were. Now, the future is based on itinerant workers there for the money. Like everybody else.
Into this strides Mr Faulkner with what some might see as a somewhat impertinent confidence. While governments dither and councils strive to have an impact, Mr Faulkner makes claims which may seem extravagantly incongruous. Major international contracting consortia will tremble to read that Councillor Faulkner, should he so become, will “Hold contractors to account, ensure projects are delivered on time and within budget, and minimise disruption to our villages and local economy”. All by himself.
Though he is clearly somewhat late on the latter point. Clearly, he hasn’t recently tried to drive to the Eel’s Foot pub at Eastbridge – to be proposed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site – through miles of temporary tarmac and orange hazard tape where once foxgloves and marsh orchids grew, nightjars nested and bitterns boomed.
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The National Emergency Briefing (NEB) is an attempt by leading academics and figures in health, food, national security, energy, economics, climate change and nature conservation to establish a co-ordinated and non-party response to climate change and other threats to the natural world. In a small glimmer of hope that progressives really can talk to each other, North Norfolk Labour Party have agreed to support the Greens’ showing of the NEB’s inaugural film, at Cromer Community Centre.
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Wednesday was April Fool’s Day of course. There are few enough good jokes, but this seems like one. Pecksniff enjoys championing local councils with a human face, and the wise men have already bent the elbow in appreciation.
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This week’s quidnuncs were: Karl Whiteman, Stace Richards, Malcolm Lynn, Liz Crosbie, James Porter, Celina Błędowska, John Elworthy, Helen Forte, Mary Marshall, Andrew Coates and Yasmin Gregory.
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