This diary will not generally be commenting on Donald Trump and politics in the US, but his victory this week poses a curiously (and probably complacently) overlooked problem. He will almost certainly instigate a trade war, and inevitably others and in particular the EU will respond in kind. Now where, dear reader, does that leave Britain? Our economy is dramatically threatened by the manoeuvres of the big beasts, and at the same time Mr Trump’s willingness to cosy up to Russia puts our national security at risk. Would we trust him with any of our secrets? Are we happy with political troilism, joining the US in going to bed with the Bear?
The prime minister’s waffle on resetting relations with the EU will no longer do. Our economy and our security depend on finding a way back into the cosy embrace of Europe.
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“Starmer blames Brexit for small boats crisis” could be the headline. On another aspect of national security, this week Keir Starmer admits the UK could have led Europe-wide operational efforts to tackle people-smuggling gangs, if only Brexit hadn’t happened: “When we were in the EU, we could lead on operations, and at the moment we can’t.”
Note that, naturally, had we still been in the EU we would have been bossing things, because in our own remembrance of our seedy glory Britain has always been a leader. Other member states were never incredulous at our arrogance and incompetence, but only too grateful to fall into step behind us.
We will know the world has changed when one of our politicians can discuss issues with our international partners without beating our chests and declaring we could beat the lot of them.
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This diary recently mused on when the Liberal Democrats would first drag the tarpaulin off their new and tentative approach to eventual EU membership. Among the party’s MPs it was felt that we might have to wait until their spring conference for progress, but this week Ed Davey spoke on the issue in the Commons. The result of the US election has clearly meant a re-think. Mr Davey said: “Fixing the UK’s broken relationship with the EU is even more urgent than before. We must strengthen trade and defence cooperation across Europe to help protect ourselves from the damage Trump will do.”
No.10 can hardly be avoiding a re-think either. A spokesman reassured us that the possibility of a Trump triumph had already been factored in, but one has to admit it doesn’t seem like it. Or has the PM already considered all possibilities and decided that, in seeking a carapace he would rather plump for Trump than contemplate the EU?
That seems vanishingly unlikely, not least because it would split his party – probably irrevocably.
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Since we’re halfway through the diary, this seems a safe place to draw out from under the cushions some reference to the Conservative leadership outcome. The triumph by Kemi Badenoch (NW Essex) means that we now have three leaders of the country’s main parties in East Anglia. As well as Ms Badenoch, there is Adrian Ramsay (Waveney Valley) for the Greens, and Mr Clacton himself, Nigel Farage, for the other lot.
The Tory vote was a poor turn-out. Only half the membership bothered to take part, so Ms Badenoch was only acclaimed by about a third of her party. In fact she received fewer votes, in absolute and percentage terms, than any other previous Conservative Party leader in history.
Not an auspicious start.
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Kemi Badenoch hardly received any more reassuring response from her parliamentary colleagues either. Many prominent Westminster figures let it be known that they would not be available for selection for Ms Badenoch’s shadow cabinet. (No doubt in some cases avoiding being passed over anyway.)
Among them was James Cleverly (Braintree), for whom this was probably a shrewd move. He still has hopes, no doubt reassured by the horror in many political quarters when he was so inauspiciously squeezed out of the final two contenders. He can now wait for Ms Badenoch to crash and burn, while remaining pristine and unsullied by whatever delusions bring her down.
The commentator Sam Freedman points out: “This is turning into a problem for Badenoch. She needs at least half her MPs to be frontbenchers. When you take out the ones that are too old or too mad she hasn’t got many options as it is.”
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Kemi Badenoch announced that what her party needed was to tell the truth, though being a narcissist, she naturally assumes that the truth in this instance simply means whatever she happens to think. It is unlikely that she will prove to be a team player. So after her TV interview in which she discussed getting rid of the NHS, declared that Partygate was no big deal and what a good prime minister Boris Johnson had been, it is possible that what one of her colleagues claimed might prove a “high risk” strategy of choosing her as leader, already is.
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There will be speculation about the Trump presidency enhancing Kemi Badenoch’s chances of success. But it is unlikely. Instead, it will probably only emphasise the dangers she represents. Conversations with that alienated diaspora of traditional Conservative voters who feel they have lost their party will reveal they are chary about finding it re-born in the Republicans. They see the threat no less viscerally than those on the left.
Trump’s champions in our own political milieu – Truss, Johnson and Farage – are all distrusted and despised. Their espousal of his cause can only emphasise the gulf between this country and the US, and the dangers Donald Trump represents.
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As well as having the leaders of three of the five leading parties in our region, we now have five members of Ms Badenoch’s shadow cabinet. They are Priti Patel (Witham) as shadow foreign secretary, Richard Fuller (N Beds) as shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, James Cartlidge (S Suffolk) shadowing defence, Rebecca Harris (Castle Point), and Alex Burghart (Brentwood) at Northern Ireland and also covering the Duchy of Lancaster (aka odds and sods).
Not for the most part household names, and Mr Burghart seems particularly unlikely to become so in his role. Apparently he has yet to visit Northern Ireland, his new patch, because his party can’t afford to send him.
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Ms Badenoch’s appointment of Priti Patel (Witham) as her shadow foreign secretary has caused something of a stir. There always seems something of the Lady Macbeth about her. This is the woman very publicly sacked by Theresa May for going AWOL during a jaunt around Europe and pushing her own freelance foreign policy by secretly conferring with Israel.
To the outside observer, the two women seem like peas from the same pod. Both are keen to be affronted and show an unhesitating contempt for all opinion except their own. Since their views won’t always coincide, expect abrasion and back-stabbing.
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Little roly-poly, Mark Francois (Rayleigh & Wickford),always looks like one of those squeaky dog’s toys, which quickly becomes disembowelled and loses its squeak, and is eventually found abandoned in the garden. His appointment by Ms Badenoch as a shadow minister of state covering Defence was presumably prompted by other considerations, however.
There was a time when Mr Francois was hardly out of the news, always embarrassingly keen to cut an unlikely dash. But then suddenly he went into his shell: we heard nothing more. Details are elusive, so we can only speculate as to why that might have been.
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One of the most controversial measures in the Budget was the application of inheritance tax on some farms. So this diarist is grateful for the esteemed Stephen ‘Numbers’ McNair and his meticulously researched piece in East Anglia Bylines on Thursday. The key numbers to look for are the total claimed to be affected by the tax, as waved about by the National Farmers Union and other pressure groups: 70,000. And the number of those actually to be affected according to HMRC: 436.
The value of farmland increased by 7% last year, a higher return than on anything else. In the years 2021-22 only 37 farms valued at over £5 million were inherited, and only 462 farms valued at more than £1m were inherited, (0.6% of the total). Three quarters of these were valued at less than £2.5m and unlikely to reach the tax threshold. And the average length of new tenancies is just three years…
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The argument over inheritance tax on farmland is mentioned precisely because of the monstrously misleading and highly orchestrated campaign against it. (In case Pecksniff should be accused of knocking ‘our farmers’, this correspondent spent 30 years in public relations and recognises when an argument is being organised, Sunshine. Nothing wrong with that, but mendacious attempts to hoodwink the public have to be called out.)
The Eastern Daily Press for example has launched a ‘Fair deal for farmers’ campaign and declares: “Thousands of family businesses now face huge tax bills when land is handed down to future generations – potentially forcing many to quit the industry”.
This is a grotesque misrepresentation of the facts, egged on by a bunch of equally dishonest MPs. It may have happened simply through shoddy journalism. Or it may be a cynical ploy by a failing title to win kudos from its ageing rural readership by deliberately misrepresenting the facts for its own ends. You, dear reader, be the judge…
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With thanks to Karl Whiteman and Yasmin Gregory.
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