For some time now, your humble diarist has been encouraging optimism. My dears, all the signs are there, and in particular they are provided by changing views on the EU. One amusing example was the online poll run this week by the Daily Mail, in which 24,000 Mail readers – 84% – wanted a return to EU membership. (What made it particularly delicious was the desperate attempt in the paper’s bar chart to ‘adjust’ the outcome, in which that 84% is shown as about half that.)
But we digress. Much more important, we had another in that long charade of will-he won’t he pronouncements by Keir Starmer on closer ties to the EU. Until now, Keir Starmer’s every step has involved a tortuous delicacy, for fear such an initiative might put out of countenance the more atavistic of our fellow citizens, (who even by the Mail’s account amount to only 12%).
Yet the situation may be about to assume a less enigmatic aspect. “The economic and security benefits of a closer relationship with the EU are simply too big to ignore,” says Keir Starmer. The Guardian claims he will use “‘Henry VIII’ powers to dynamically align with EU rules by default, including the adoption of changed EU single market rules without full parliamentary scrutiny each time.” (Theirs, my dears, is the split infinitive.)
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The fugitive meaning of this, of course, is to introduce the single market by another name. It also implies Britain will be a ‘rule-taker’, which of course will infuriate the Mail’s 12%. But that only begs the question as to why we don’t take the next step, of negotiating single market membership in full.
Because for the first time we can say with some certainty that Britain will return to the EU, with whatever taradiddles it requires. But after our pig-headed PM has spent so long painting himself into a corner, we shall have to wait until the Dulux dries before we can creep out to do so. Perhaps by then Keir Starmer will no longer be PM: on this issue alone, he deserves not to be.
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We have lost count by now of the occasions when Keir Starmer has announced he really really will seek a closer liaison. During this time, it has been a political solecism to assume he means anything serious by it, as long as he clings to his red lines.
But after so long with his head in the sand, is our dispirited ostrich about to smell the coffee? (Well he couldn’t smell coffee while he had his head in the sand – Ed.) It seems from several sources that Sir Keir is prepared to take the offensive: taking on his political opponents over Brexit and its disastrous aftermath. No more ‘make Brexit work’: at last the PM realises just how silly that sounds.
What makes this occasion different is that Sir Keir is actually prepared to confront his opponents with the disaster which Brexit has proved. That would provide Labour at last with its own narrative. For two years the government has blundered on, trying not to be noticed while shadowing whatever odious lunacies Reform proclaims: a catastrophic strategy.
But so far the PM is still portraying our relations with Europe as transactional. No warm embrace, just doing business and counting the change. Perhaps when the sky doesn’t fall in over this latest step, he might at last feel able to embrace our role in Europe. Over the coming weeks, East Anglia Bylines will show him how it can be done.
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So what has brought about this radical change? Whose handwriting is this? We probably need look no further than the departure of Morgan McSweeney. While he was in post, No.10 seemed like Barad-dur, and Labour MPs gave the impression of having been born in captivity.
Is it the influence of Darren Jones, the sparkling new chief secretary to the PM? He has shown an inclination to grow closer to Europe, though his approach has been pragmatic rather than ideological. We are told Labour MPs have a new appreciation of freedom of movement, though where they have been over the past decade one can’t think. Stella Creasey for Labour4Europe is now openly declaring: “Anyone who only seeks a customs union with Europe is clearly too frightened to make the case for freedom of movement.”
There is also yet another bunch of navel gazers initiative called Common Endeavour, in which the estimable Andrew Lewin (Welwyn Hatfield) seems to play a prominent role, calling for a Swiss-style deal. Mr Lewin is a serious man: something is afoot.
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If Keir Starmer is to be replaced, and god knows how, it appears Andy Burnham is increasingly the king over the water, or in this case the king over the M54. According to The House Magazine (House of Commons, that is), Ed Miliband and Louise Haigh are already on board the Burnham bus, and Mr Burnham is having serious talks with other MPs and the unions.
One surprising name among his supposed backers however is Lisa Nandy, the MP for Wigan, oop north, where the Brexiters supposedly live among their dark satanic mills. (Have you been drinking? – Ed) Perhaps for pragmatic purposes (i.e. terror of upsetting the Red Wall’s finest), ever since the referendum Ms Nandy has firmly backed Brexit.
So why back a man who, if he were a stick of rock, would have ‘EU’ written through him? Well, as the Commons cognoscenti point out, though she won almost half the Wigan vote in 2024, this is potentially Farageland. Presently the polls don’t look too hot for Labour. Whereas if Mr Burnham were to become an MP, his enticingly safe-looking position as Mayor of Manchester would become vacant.
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If we are to believe the polls, then Reform will sweep the board in the local elections. Yet at the same time, all polls now show Reform’s support falling significantly. The political panorama has never appeared more complex, and council election results can often be misleading. They often measure today’s concerns against the bees we had in our bonnet three years previously, the last time the seats were counted. In addition, of course, we now have at least five parties to muddy the waters.
So, tactical voting is becoming increasingly sophisticated and has certainly swung many recent elections. There seems a movement among some on the left even to vote Tory, to keep Reform out.
But back to those opinion polls. This diary began pointing out some time ago that Reform’s balloon has a slow puncture. They still lead, but with the slimmest of majorities – and there are still three weeks for opinion to shift further. It is difficult to see how all the polls can be so wrong, but nothing in the ether suggests there is huge enthusiasm abroad for Reform.
So your correspondent tentatively suggests they will do well, but voting patterns won’t be uniform and it won’t be the blitzkrieg as forecast.
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As to the others, Labour seems likely to lose Cambridge to a Greens/Liberal Democrats coalition. The LibDems will hold a presence across the west of the region, and the Greens might take seats in both east and west.
Most interesting perhaps is what may happen to the Conservative vote. Pecksniff has suggested previously that it seems improbable the Tory county classes will vote heavily for Reform: they will leave that to their tweeny maids and their under-gardeners. Evidence so far is that some will cling on to the devil they know, others will go to Greens and LibDems.
But of course, the key to any kind of victory for the centre left is to vote! Turn-out will be crucial.
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Two district councils in this region have been chosen to trial a radical new approach to voting – radical that is, for Britain. It is widely used elsewhere, but for some reason our governments are terrified of changing the electoral system. The idea is to give voters a choice over where and when they place their vote.
The two council areas are Cambridge and North Herts, and the new system will be tried for the first time in next month’s council elections. Here, voters will be able to vote before the designated election day, and at one of several public buildings.
The practical significance of any such permanent change would be that the easier it is to vote, the bigger the turn-out and the less chance there is of the xenophobes creeping into power.
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Daisy Cooper (St Albans) is only one of those becoming increasingly interested in how Reform have become – in the words of one commentator – the political wing of the crypto industry. The source of Reform’s finances is known to be the greatest concern of the voters, with reason, though as always Nigel Farage and his chums seem keen on providing others.
On the subject of money, there is also the problem of Richard Tice and his tax affairs. The accusations are vigorously denied, though Mr Tice has been suspiciously absent from our TV screens since the scandal blew up.
Then on the subject of untrue claims made by his candidates about Reform reducing council tax, Mr Farage told a hack: “We’re not North Korea, I can’t control it”, as though these are minor derelictions from an accepted canon of behaviour which should be disregarded. Even though he is effectively declaring that anything his candidates say may be a lie, but he has no intention of doing anything about it.
Then of course there are the new policies on immigration, on which the party had seemed to backpedal, with the numbers falling. But Reform’s main concern these days has to be Restore, besotted with immigration and who stand at 4% in one poll. That is 4% who otherwise would have voted for Reform. And anything that relegates them to just another party would be anathema to many of their supporters.
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There simply isn’t the space (or the appetite) to publish the many exposés of Reform candidates, but here are two examples from this week, from our region… Jeff Bray is their candidate for Tendring Rural East – the Farage backyard. When he was a candidate for Ukip, he described Muslims as “scum” and suggested any caught burning poppies should be shot – even though there seems no evidence of Muslims ever burning poppies.
Then Councillor Andy Osborn, a member of Fenland Council and now standing as a candidate for Cambridgeshire County Council. A court found him guilty of “making or publishing a false statement” and has disqualified him from holding office. He had made up a blatant lie about the dishonesty of a Conservative opponent.
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In the matter of prenant le petit-beurre, few can out-do James Cleverly (Braintree), who portrays a happy disregard for what seems his party’s altar cast down on the matter of net zero. Last month he declared: “We (the Tories) will scrap the 2050 net zero target, ditch green levies on bills, and drill in the North Sea – getting our own oil and gas out of the ground”. This week he boasts: “I am proud that under our stewardship, the UK became a global example of how nations can reduce emissions and grow their economies simultaneously”.
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Rupert Lowe is still under the misapprehension that a party called Great Yarmouth First can conquer the world. The clue as to why it can’t lies in its name, of course. In fact, a group of predictably all-white and all-male candidates and wannabe councillors metaphorically waving two fingers at the rest of Norfolk is not very likely to progress far even within the county.
This is just one of the many curiosities regarding Britain’s far-right parties. Mr Lowe is not well disposed towards Mr Farage, to whom he gives the impression he would like to make certain anatomical modifications. Yet here we have Reform in Bury St Edmunds enthusiastically applauding the success of their rivals.
It is quite possible, of course, that the party branch in question has no idea what it is doing. So tell me, dear reader, does this look like a party ready for power? It doesn’t even seem to know which party it is.
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This week’s mysterious figures lurking in the shadows were David Patey, Celina Błędowska, Malcolm Lynn, Karl Whiteman, Andrew Coates, James Porter, Mary Marshall, Mark Popay, Stace Richards, Liz Crosbie and John Elworthy.
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