This week’s shock poll is, like all other recent polls, not shocking at all. It has become the norm to show the Conservatives winning fewer than 100 seats at the next election. In 1997, the Conservatives won 165 seats, their lowest figure since 1918. Yet this week’s IPSOS poll suggests they may win only 35.
We have probably passed the point of disbelief at the possibility of such an outcome. On the IPSOS result, they wouldn’t even be the official opposition. That role would go to the Liberal Democrats with 49 seats. Labour would have a majority of 397. Nobody, it seems, has been prepared to contemplate this seriously, for fear of being thought naïve. Yet nobody a few years ago would have believed that Britain could be taken over by a blatantly corrupt, anti-democratic and quasi-fascist clique.
Be under no illusions: we are looking at a fundamental reshaping of British politics, for good and ill. Yet there is no evidence that anybody, least of all the likely victors, are seriously contemplating it.
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The latest Tory leadership lunacy involves a plot somehow to instal Priti Patel (Witham) as leader, with the imprimatur of Boris Johnson, and then for Liz Truss (SW Norfolk) and Kemi Badenoch (Saffron Walden) to pile in with their support.
One can only be incredulous to imagine for a moment that Ms Truss and Ms Badenoch would be happy to give up their own delusions of power to a rival they thought they’d seen off a couple of years ago.
But you will also notice that there is no question here of Ms Patel being elected by the members, let alone the public having any say. For today’s Conservative Party, democracy is a major obstacle to their keeping power at any cost – as the last entry makes clear.
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Of course, Priti Patel has always been something of a mystery: what makes her tick? Let’s guess. Readers may recall an odd story from her days at the Home Office about Ms Patel spending £77,000 of public money on having her eyebrows done, a story which the Home Office swiftly denied. Then there was a shopping spree on the Home Office credit card at Rachel’s Cupcakes, Folkestone Garden Centre, the Pollyanna restaurant and a pub called the Magdalen Arms, among others. And wasn’t there something about claiming expenses while she was living with her parents?
Anyway, more recently the Good Law Project have begun nosing about into Ms Patel’s involvement in PPE procurement. After Ms Patel was put in touch with one firm, who then failed to gain a contract, she intervened on their behalf by writing to Mr Gove. So Govey did the business and the contract was secured… worth £216 million. Ms Patel’s contact, the middleman, earned a personal £16 million.
It is not clear why either Ms Patel or Mr Gove should have done this. But it seems reasonable to suppose we shall hear more.
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On Monday we read of another new poll this time of Conservative Party members, which claims Rishi Sunak is even more unpopular among the faithful than before. Hardly news, since a new poll appears every week making the same claim. For the record, Mr Sunak scores -27.7. But what’s this? There is one cabinet member who is doing even worse. Some poor bugger called Tomlinson scores -43.1!
This hardly seemed fair, until you consider that his title is the Minister of State for Illegal Migration. That bizarre title probably persuades the members that he is actually in favour of it.
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For three years, Pecksniff has been laughing at the astonishing lack of self awareness shown by Liz Truss. But we need to return to one of the most breathtaking examples, prompted by claims in her new and much derided book. “Unlike some, I hadn’t spent all my time in cabinet plotting a leadership bid,” she claims. But as this diarist pointed out at the time, whilst foreign secretary she was declaring her loyalty to Boris Johnson on Twitter under an account brazenly headed ‘Liz for Leader’.
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Interesting developments afoot in South West Norfolk. Liz Truss is expected to tear herself away from London launch parties for her book and recall that she is still an MP. She is as invisible as ever in her constituency, but still draws her £84,000 salary plus expenses, and also those other expenses of £125,000 a year for having been prime minister for a fortnight.
Critics might point out this is about a quarter of a million quid for having done nothing except drink other people’s champagne, go for freebie skiing holidays and trash the economy.
These matters however are not what makes the coming election here of interest. Ms Truss enjoys a majority of 26,000. Yet a reliable source tells your diarist that present Tory voters are hard to find, and more than half of those who voted for the party in 2019 claim they won’t do so again. A common response to their MP is embarrassment, and the cry of “What’s she ever done for us?”.
There is no doubting the unpopularity of Ms Truss, and this time her Labour opponent is ‘Mr Thetford’ himself, Councillor Terry Jermy. And from the other political flank comes James Bagge, an independent, but former Conservative – and also former lord lieutenant of Norfolk. He may not win and that may not be his goal, but with those credentials he can probably drag away an awfully big chunk of that majority.
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A telling on-the-ground criticism of Liz Truss appears this week on the Thetford Facebook page, from local independent Councillor Tom Ryves. In a lengthy critique, he claims: “I have emailed her office on many occasions to ask for her support on local issues. I have rarely had the courtesy of a response, and when I am acknowledged, it is a standard response promising no action”.
In particular, he complains about her behaviour over a major planning dispute involving a company called Cranswick, a food giant with revenues up to £2.3 billion. They are the creators of the notorious Stow Bedon Stink, just north of Thetford. Cllr Ryves suspects they intend to set up Europe’s biggest factory farm on the site. He claims the only response he has had from Ms Truss is that “we need cheap food” – which anyway ought to be a bone of contention, but he claims is parroting the corporate line taken by Cranswick.
“Liz Truss is the very worst example of an ineffective career politician,” Cllr Ryves concludes. “All in all an appalling woman.”
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Incidentally, it is noticeable that Reform’s figures continue to improve: in South West Norfolk they may take 18% of the vote. It is tempting to assume almost all of that figure is made up of frustrated Tory voters, and it probably is; but the electorate rarely behaves in the rational way political nerds would expect.
It is interesting though that Reform is encountering a problem which they might have anticipated. If you set up a party which espouses the ideals Reform does, you are likely to attract prospective candidates who project those concerns (shall we say) zealously. Over-zealously, in fact, thus leading to potential embarrassments. So Reform has dropped a number of their prospective candidates – they “had to withdraw for personal reasons”, as they put it.
But they need 61 candidates to cover the region, and thus far they only have 49 remaining. So they are still appealing for new applicants. You could join Reform and almost immediately become a wannabe MP. Still some good seats left, as they say.
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This diary has featured Duncan Baker (N Norfolk) frequently recently.
This is because Mr Baker has begun putting himself about to get noticed, what with Steffan Aquarone and the Liberal Democrats reckoned by Electoral Calculus to have a 72% chance of taking the seat, as against Mr Baker’s rather forlorn looking 23% of holding it. His chances are hardly improved by Labour’s decision to tell all its canvassers to decamp to Great Yarmouth, so leaving the way open for them.
But it is possible that Mr Baker may have been overdoing his attempts to appear popular. Photo-bombing popular events has its limitations. Now, Mr Baker is accused of setting up fake Facebook accounts. He denies it, though it has to be said, the glutinous comments are so embarrassing as scarcely to be credible. Do people really say: “This is a really interesting statement from Duncan Baker! Great to see his support!” In a lifetime of eavesdropping on other people’s conversations, your diarist cannot recall a single example.
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Pecksniff is grateful to Andrew Lewin, the Labour candidate for Welwyn Hatfield, for pointing out the hypocrisy of his opponent Grant Shapps this week. Mr Shapps is considered by his colleagues to be a safe pair of hands at this lark; he has a hide like a nuclear bomb shelter. Somerset Maugham observed that hypocrisy requires unceasing diligence: “It cannot, like adultery or gluttony, be practised at spare moments; it is a wholetime job”.
Mr Lewin points out only last week, Welwyn Hatfield’s chosen one was eager to appear on the telly to condemn Angela Rayner for whatever the Tories were trying to pin on her at the time. (They still seem somewhat unclear.) Yet this week, when approached to talk about the bizarre goings-on involving Mark Menzies, Mr Shapps gravely pointed out it would be improper to comment.
For the record, Electoral Calculus gives Mr Lewin a 94% chance of taking the seat.
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The new constituency of Ely and East Cambs gives cause for frustration. It has been a Liberal Democrat target seat, and indeed Electoral Calculus gives it to the party with 38%. But Labour is shown with 32%, and Conservatives 29%. It is important that you know that, in this seat, Labour and LibDems hate each other. It is reported that recently the Labour agent went round to the house of the LibDem opposite number and a public harangue took place.
Now on these figures, if either party stepped back, the Tories would be beaten easily, but dear reader, they won’t. Perhaps because of the split, Best for Britain forecast the Tories to take it. Pecksniff has been an admirer of the passion and enthusiasm of the Labour candidate Elizabeth McWilliams for some time. Her LibDem opponent Charlotte Cane has yet to make her own appearance in the Muckrakers Arms, but no doubt she would stand her round and in other ways to make a worthy MP.
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There are interesting rumours going about regarding Thérèse Coffey and her election campaign in Suffolk Coastal. She is seen canvassing all alone in Martlesham. None of the usual coterie of supporters. Whisper it soft, but the word is that she is finding it difficult to find anyone to canvass with her.
For the first time, her political opponents smell blood in the water, but since this is Dr Coffey and the water is the River Deben, it’s possible that the smell is something else entirely. So who could beat her? Nobody would ever accuse her LibDem opponent Jules Ewart of less than frenzied activity; but this time Labour too have got off their complacent backsides and are apparently canvassing hard. Their candidate Jenny Riddell-Carpenter was given a high profile launch with a couple of big names on the platform. So ladies and gentlemen, at last we have an election.
However clever MRP may be, it can’t take account of opposition parties choosing to fight each other rather than the incumbent. But for the record, Electoral Calculus suggests Labour have a 79% chance of taking the seat; Dr Coffey only a 20% chance of holding it.
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Last week, Pecksniff noted that CambsNews had reported both Steve Barclay (NE Cambs) and Whittlesey Town Council for being in breach of electoral law. Mr Barclay had conducted a spurious interview with a Tory candidate in the forthcoming local elections, during a period when public authorities are required to avoid any party political content.
Fenland District Council have now required that the interview be taken down.
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Your diarist completes this copy on Friday 19th. A note has just arrived from a perplexed voter, who has received her postal vote on this same day from Mid Suffolk Council, declaring: “If you would rather vote in person… you must cancel your postal vote before 5pm on 17th April 2024.”
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With thanks to Linda Buckmaster, Zoë, CrowCrow and Karl Whiteman.
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