With the Labour Party conference beginning this weekend, another poll confirms what the country has been saying for months now: there has for some time been a growing national majority in favour of rejoining the EU, or restoring elements of membership. In this latest poll, rejoining is also the most popular option in every constituency in Great Britain except four, where ‘don’t know’ tops the poll. But Labour heareth not, however indefensible their position is commonly held to be.
What is more, by far the most popular option is full membership, chosen by more than three times as many people as want looser ties with Europe, and by far more than merely support a customs union or membership of the single market.
Is there any voter in full command of their faculties who still believes in the UK/US ‘special relationship’? Will Buccaneering Britain sail gloriously out into the mountainous seas of international conflict, climate collapse and the rising tide of fascism, still believing that the bulldog spirit and a nice cup of tea will see us through? The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.
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So what are Labour’s priorities this week? Here is a spoiler: they don’t include Brexit. It may be whispered sotto voce as delegates go about their Bohemian revels in Liverpool next week, in some little estaminet in the Balkan Triangle. But not on stage it won’t. There is such a herd of elephants in the conference hall, it is a surprise they can cram in the delegates. But the elephants will be ignored: delegates have more important issues to discuss. Motions include the launch of a supervised toothbrushing scheme for three to five-year-olds, and banning the sale of animals with cropped ears. Against such existential threats, Brexit and the EU are not worth a mention.
And the delegates will slump in their seats and listen to this nonsense, doing their best to fight off their pangs of conscience. Regular readers will recall that last week your humble diarist spilled the beans on Labour’s reluctance to embrace the EU (and specifically freedom of movement) again: they are terrified of voters turning to the xenophobes. Yet the polls tell us voters are actually in favour of freedom of movement.
Tell that to the government while immigration is still top of the headlines. Yet the far right is a threat simply because, instead of confronting them, the established parties have kowtowed to their ravings. Short of donning black balaclavas and chucking bricks through the windows of asylum hotels, they could hardly have done more to encourage them.
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So Labour rumbles on in the same old way. Except… When Andy Burnham became prime minister, Yvette Cooper remarked that he was quite different from Keir Starmer and his “bring me solutions, not problems” approach. Mr Burnham, she suggested, was a man who genuinely wanted to confront problems, and work with colleagues to try to find a way round them.
At the time it sounded like the kind of thing any grateful new ministerial appointee might be expected to say, but she may have had a point. Publication of the climate report this week is one example, as are the new measures against illegal Israeli settlements and the initiative against Russian misinformation. Yet when we compare Mr Burnham to his party machine, there seems a discrepancy. The machine grinds on as usual, patronising, controlling and bureaucratic. But that doesn’t seem like Mr Burnham’s kind of politics.
So will he kick over the traces? Under Keir Starmer, the leader’s speech was intended not to frighten the horses, but Mr Burnham actually wants to do things. The party machine requires not a mention of new initiatives to return to the EU, nor probably much telling comment on the present blackshirts’ civil disorder. Yet surely the PM can’t let his scene-setting speech for the year pass without addressing either?
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Readers may well recall that preposterously smug observation at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet by prime minister Theresa May, on Russian interference in British politics: “We know what you’re doing.” Then that was that. Nothing was done. It became almost an icon of British complacency during the waning years of Conservative government.
There has been little evidence of action since, either. For some time, East Anglia Bylines has known throughour own sources that the EU has been investigating and acting against interference by Russia (and, surprisingly, Iran) in the domestic politics of its member states. Now, on Tuesday, Andy Burnham declared the establishment of our own National Centre for Information Defence (NCID).
The purpose of the NCID is to “detect, attribute and disrupt”, and Mr Burnham makes clear he is blaming that same interference for some of our present domestic unrest. He is to be congratulated on taking it seriously at last.
It was nearly a year ago that a former head of MI5 said we might already be at war with Russia, precisely through this kind of asymmetric warfare. Months later, the head of MI6 appealed to us all to be wary, presumably not because a Russian spy lurks on every corner but because we are being hoodwinked into believing their purposeful lies. It is baffling therefore, though very British, that it has taken this long for the government itself to take it seriously.
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The Liberal Democrats went into their conference this week convinced of what they saw as the vanishing likelihood of an early election, whatever Kemi Badenoch (NW Essex) says. A No.10 spokesperson this week called it “utter bollocks”, yet the Daily Telegraph claims the PM’s team feel they are working with “one hand tied behind our back” because of the constraints of the 2024 manifesto.
But if a spring election were to be on the cards, the manifesto would have to address the EU, and the appropriate mood music would need to begin now.
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Last week Sir John Curtice, doyen of pollsters, had pointed out the glaring opportunity for parties to claim the empty mantle of champions of our return to the EU, and as noted above, Labour still avoids the subject. So as LibDem delegates set off with their buckets and spades for Brighton, your diarist remarked to one MP: “The LibDems must be stark staring bonkers if you don’t fill your boots now…”
So, do they return with their boots filled with more than sand? Well, perhaps. Ed Davey has made his promise of a cut in income tax, but what marks this out is that he ties it to a return to the single market. This may be clever, because perhaps for the first time a politician points out to voters a concrete financial advantage of single market membership to every home, instead of blathering about its effects on GDP.
The delegates go home buoyant, though Mr Davey has been ridiculed by the mainstream media. No doubt this is comme de l’eau sur les plumes d’un canard; he and the party are used to it by now. Still, does this mean the LibDems will now attack Brexit with all guns blazing? Somehow, it doesn’t sound very LibDem, though Pecksniff genuinely wishes them well. But they are not what one would call determinist: more like an obscure Oriental religion whose only tenets of faith are a complete submission to fate and clean fingernails.
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However, fair do’s: the Liberal Democrats are prepared to come out and bat for Europe, but they find themselves in an interesting position. However difficult voters find it to describe what the party is for, polls clearly show they act as a buffer between the increasingly extreme Conservatives and the parties beyond; and Labour and the Greens on the other side. They are dominant in the 78 seats in which their challenger is either the Conservatives or Reform, but offer no contest against Labour and Greens.
Might their more confident position on the EU in the face of Labour antipathy change the situation? We await Labour’s reaction to the LibDems’ promised single market-linked tax cut. Will they attack the promise as being unrealistic, or will they dismiss the single market link? With the former, they would be keeping their powder dry on the EU; if the latter, then they are setting their face against realistic steps towards the EU, and really haven’t changed at all.
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The village of Barnham in Suffolk is gleefully, naively and not at all surprisingly keen to follow Piddington in Oxfordshire in declaring symbolic independence. Piddington may have put up jokey notices declaring village independence; but they would have been more accurate if they had made it a formal invitation for every far-right Russian-backed wacko thug looking for a fight to come in and trash their village and its reputation.
A couple of weeks ago, Pecksniff told Piddington that – whatever their intention – the initiative would be seen as racism-inspired. That will please any racists in the village, especially when fascist bullies from off the telly turn up to have their photos taken, but it will horrify and terrify the rest. So, a formerly united and happy village will be split, and irrevocably. Those who invited in the far right will be compelled to defend their actions, while those who oppose will suffer sickening threats and intimidation. Very soon, the village will become known as a hotbed of racially inspired buffoons, made a mockery across the world.
Will this prospect put off the good burghers of Barnham? Dear reader, is the pope a Presbyterian?
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Attempts this week by Nigel Farage to import ICE into Britain seem unlikely to bear fruit with those voters he needs to wheedle to regain ground in the polls. A huge majority of voters hate Trump, and hate his ICE even more. Next, Mr Farage’s Welsh satrap gets himself arrested on suspicion of ‘assault and controlling or coercive behaviour’, and all the boy Nigel can say is: “I’m sorry for his personal difficulties.”
In the intemperate circles to which he belongs, this may pass muster. But without being drawn into the allegations themselves, which of course are sub judice, the voting public might have expected some small acknowledgement that, by implication, there was another person involved in this alleged assault – the one allegedly assaulted. But no sympathy here from Mr Farage.
The response to this from an obdurate electorate is hardly likely to prove complimentary. So what is he up to, eh?
Mr Farage has never played the long game, ducking and diving being more his metier, and anyway he has more pressing concerns, and not only over money. How many times must your diarist point out that the revolution always eats its children? He let loose the conspiracy fantasies of the far right but cannot now control them. Many in his wider entourage may want to slip the leash and beat up immigrants, and what is more there are ambitious rivals at Reform’s top table only too pleased to offer them whatever they want. (The chair recognises Mr Jenrick.)
So Mr Farage is desperately preoccupied with self-preservation, and pacifying the knuckledraggers has become a more immediate problem than winning the next election.
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We know the far right doesn’t like lifeboat volunteers, but how do they feel about firefighters? Nigel Farage seems to find firefighting his major occupation at the moment. As well as the embarrassment over the arrest of Reform’s leader in Wales, hehas to put up with the weekly attrition of his party’s councillors.
This week it has been Councillor Bradley Thompson, among others. EssexLive carries the headline: “Second Essex Reform UK councillor suspended in 6 days amid ‘several serious’ allegations”. Cllr Thompson currently represents Clacton West and St Osyth for Essex County Council, and West Clacton & Jaywick Sands on Tendring District Council.
Then there is Reform’s Councillor Peter Reeve, in court for drink driving – the second time in three years. Cllr Reeve is a member of Peterborough City Council, though he lives in Ramsey, which is 13 miles away. So, with a 50-month driving ban, um…
He is described here as ‘Reform’s’, since he was when elected only four months ago, but he was suspended by the party in August with no reason given. Cllr Reeve describes calls for him to resign as a “cheap political stunt”.
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Then one late entry… Analysis of Labour voters confirms that, in the past two years, its change from a working class to middle class party has progressed dramatically. But showing the figures to Labour MPs would be like holding up a crucifix to a vampire.
The proportion of Labour voters who are middle-class has increased from 57 to 63% since the general election; the proportion with a household income over £40,000 has risen from 60 to 65%. One oddity though: the proportion of women voters has fallen from 52 to 46%.
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Malcolm Lynn, James Porter, Liz Crosbie, Kate Viscardi, Mary Marshall, JJ Jackson, Yasmin Gregory, John Elworthy, Stace Richards and Helen Forte.
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