Welcome to this week’s pull out ‘n’ keep, bumper by-election diary. The implications of the Gorton and Denton by-election result surely justify it. There are too many tentacles to include here, but we focus on the most likely far-reaching effects.
The result proves what has seemed apparent for some time: the tectonic plates have moved for good. It is now acceptable to vote Green, and since they have proved they can win, it need no longer simply be seen as a protest vote. Green-inclined punters can place their cross in confidence.
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A word about the new MP, Hannah Spencer. Her acceptance speech was startling, uplifting even. It’s the kind of speech we would once have hoped to hear from a Labour candidate, but not these days. Too confrontational, too threatening to the status quo and to the inertia which grips the party. To choose her as their candidate was a masterstroke: it made Reform’s preference for a middle-aged male renta-gob from off the telly look embarrassing.
Most voters across the country could probably applaud Ms Spencer’s words. Most could probably see themselves voting for her, even many of those frustrated enough to have looked to Reform. And politicos of most parties would have watched enviously, wishing she was theirs.
So beyond winning a seat at Westminster, probably the Greens’ greatest triumph is that through Hannah Spencer, they look like a party which gets it. And in doing so, they may have made all other parties appear as though they have lost the plot.
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What then will the electorate make of it all? The Greens can now be seen as having joined the grown-ups’ table. There are perilous times ahead for them. Expect their policies and lack of experience to be exposed. But that’s for another day and besides, people love a bandwagon to jump on.
Traditional left voters have tended to stick with Labour: many won’t now. The Muslim vote has been taken for granted, but that too won’t be now. We can’t know how far feelings about Gaza influenced the vote though clearly, they were a factor. But the average voter will just see the Greens as representing something new and refreshing and, dare one say it, bringing hope.
This is not to say that the Greens can deliver, or that the hope won’t be misplaced. How often have British hopes of change been thwarted? But for those so inclined, we should not begrudge them a rare mood of optimism.
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The seismic nature of the by-election result will be apparent to all, except to members of Labour and the Conservatives. But it is the consequence of their all-too-predictable unwillingness to accept the shifting realities which have brought them to this point and are likely to condemn them further. This was one of Labour’s safest seats, with over 50% of the vote. If they treat the outcome as just one of those ordinary vengeances of political life, as Keir Starmer predictably already does, they are lost. And however they are silenced in public, their MPs know that.
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And speaking of Keir Starmer, your diarist always looks for the mots justes in a description, and is grateful for an observation on social media: “He’s like someone put a curse on a Corby trouser press and it came to life”.
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Clive Lewis (Norwich S) has had a lot to say…
“This government has burned its base, alienated its core vote, sidelined its activists and stuck two fingers up to the very people we came into politics to represent – and we’re surprised voters are walking away?
“Changing the leader without changing the politics would be a waste of time. The problem isn’t presentation. It’s direction. We promised change and delivered continuity. We talk tough but govern timid. We protect vested interests when we should be taking them on.
“Stopping Reform now has to be the priority. But Labour can’t do that from a position of arrogance or denial. We will need to work with other progressive parties. That means co-operation. It means democratic reform. It means accepting we do not own the centre-left vote. None of that happens unless Labour changes fundamentally. Not tweaks. Not reshuffles. A clean break.”
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And what of the Tories? Since when has one of the traditional two titans of British politics simply not been mentioned in an election, and could only draw 1.9% of the vote? The Tories and Liberal Democrats were both demoted to the salon des refusés, and the cold fear creeping into the hearts of Tories is that they have simply become irrelevant. Arguments on the right are now between Reform and Restore, and Kemi Badenoch (NW Essex) is left as the priestess of some increasingly esoteric cult.
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We are likely to see completely different political battlegrounds from here on. PMQs will appear – in Mikhail Gorbachev’s memorable words – “like two old men shouting at each other with their trousers round their ankles”. Because not only are the two principal combatants both shown to be diminished, the fight will not be along traditional lines of left against right, but left versus left and right versus right.
While three new parties fight savagely for supremacy, the Conservatives aren’t even included. Kemi Badenoch’s first priority, therefore, is to re-establish her party’s credentials. But can she do so by aping the policies of her now-rampant rivals?
Meanwhile, Labour’s response to the Green usurpers will be savage – all the more intense because even the dogs in the street knew what Labour had to do, only of course being Labour they didn’t; and above all Labour cannot stand an insult to its amour propre. While Keir Starmer will go through the motions of belittling Kemi Badenoch, his team will be utterly focused on bringing down the Greens.
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Perhaps the most important point to take from the by-election result is that, for all the foetid excitement of the political media, Reform didn’t win. In fact, the total centre-left vote beat the total right-wing vote by two to one.
Reform’s failure to win could be a body blow. The apparently unstoppable juggernaut (according to many commentators) has been halted, and its failure will be gloated over triumphantly by the many enemies of Nigel Farage on the right. His party’s new circumstances threaten to be uncongenial. The knuckle draggers at his core are easy prey to the likes of Restore, with its maniacal ideas even further to the right.
Finding oneself on licensed premises the day before the vote, your diarist quizzed the wise men on whether they might know where Mr Farage was spending his day. One wag declared: “My money is on ‘not Clacton’.”
Somewhere then where Mr Farage can exercise his vast capacity for imposing vulgarity and fag ash over the occasion. Somewhere there is a chance of money changing hands. But while his primary occupation has always been in stuffing his carpet bag with moolah, he has always managed to fit in a bit of politics in his spare time. The hacks haven’t asked any more of him, as long as he continues to give good copy. But these days he feels the unwholesome breath of Rupert Lowe down his neck. His reputation rests not on strategic insight, but on rushing to judgement on public scares involving people of a different colour.
The accepted view of Westminster’s finest is still that Reform will be the next government. Dear reader, can you really see it?
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Readers may have noticed that, in recent days, Reform’s policy announcements have become increasingly unedifying. They announce an intention to deport millions of people, and instigate a British version of ICE, to note just two. Quite a leap from the change of direction suggested, we understand, by party chair David Bull, who was urging a move towards more moderation.
But polls show the public would never support extreme policies, so they are not taking these initiatives to appeal to the ordinary voter. No, they are trying to out-do Restore. Rupert Lowe (Gt Yarmouth) has been twisting Reform’s tail and backed by gargantuan ignorance, he is enjoying mocking his erstwhile colleagues.
There is no political enmity more vicious than that involving two political factions, between whose views the ordinary voter couldn’t squeeze a fag paper. Reform are out to get Restore, just as Restore are goading Reform – even though Rupert Lowe remains entirely unknown to more than nine out of 10 voters.
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There certainly seem to be ructions within Reform these days, though it is sometimes difficult to know what to believe. (No change there then, I hear you cry.) The claims may be all the more dubious because they come from Restore; but given the churn between the two parties they are at least plausible.
We hear allegations that Reform Party officers all over the country are being replaced, at the behest of HQ, by former Tories who have jumped ship. Of course, if this were true it would be an excellent way for Restore to put over the charge that Reform have sold out. In fact, it would be an excellent way of putting over the message whether it were true or not.
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Rupert Lowe is being investigated by a Commons watchdog, and he has taken umbrage, and gone to law. But in an extraordinary admission, his barrister has declared that allowing the allegations to become public has “the potential to end his career”. Oh really? Presumably they must be grievous indeed. All the more reason to hear them then… Apparently not: instead Mr Lowe believes we should hush them up, giving preference to his career prospects rather than to the electorate’s getting to know what he’s been up to.
But the Commons investigation proceeds, and we shall shortly be informed of just what Mr Lowe has been accused.
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This week’s free pint of Old Unprintable on the house (don’t tell George) goes to the media team of Bedford Borough Council. A lowlife on social media sneered at the council for mentioning Ramadan before Lent in some publicity announcement. The team’s response is worth publishing in full:
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As a TV series further stirs up public rage over the way in which privatisation has sold out our water industry, one of the region’s MPs has pertinently introduced a bill intended to protect the region’s rare chalk streams. Pippa Heylings (S Cambs) has good provenance on environmental issues.
On Thursday she introduced the 10-minute rule bill, which if successful would have required the government to apply to UNESCO to get chalk streams recognised as being part of a world heritage site. But if this sounds too good to be true, dear reader, that’s because it is. Unfortunately, 10-minute rule bills never go anywhere, which doesn’t detract from its being an excellent idea, for which Ms Heylings is to be congratulated.
Of course, the government could pick it up and do it anyway… but my dears you will know how your diarist dislikes cynicism, so will comment no further.
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Now here’s a rum do. It concerns those rascals on Dunstable Town Council. Its leader is Councillor John Gurney, once of Ukip but now independent. In a letter to fellow councillors, he points out that a recent election in the town, in the West Ward, was called by the requisite number of electors – all believed to be Reform supporters – and the Reform candidate won easily. But now there is a vacancy in the East Ward, and instead of holding an election, Cllr Gurney suggests that the council simply co-opts whoever would be the Reform candidate – on the grounds that they would probably win anyway.
This would save a few quid and would only be bowing to the inevitable. Apparently. It would also, of course, do without all that tiresome democracy stuff.
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Finally, we return to the by-election, and a quote from a Conservative Party organiser to his canvassers on social media: “And what a campaign we’ve run! I think it’s fair to say we’ve put the Conservatives back on the map in Gorton & Denton! So much love for Kemi Badenoch on the doorstep!”
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Our secret letter boxers this week were Celina Błędowska, Malcolm Lynn, Mark Popay, Rebecca Denness, Karl Whiteman, James Porter, Liz Crosbie, Stace Richards, Clare Sansom and Helen Forte.
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