At this stage in the electoral cycle, opinion polls tell us nothing about a general election. It is highly unlikely that we will have one in the next four years and a lot will change in that time. Most people pay little attention to politics until an election is imminent. Until then their ideas about how they would vote may be fairly shallowly based. And, since the Labour Party’s explicit strategy is to use its large majority to tackle long-term problems, many of the changes it aims to make will not be visible until much nearer the election (if ever).
However, the polls do give us some sense of the public mood. And the latest MRP poll, from Electoral Calculus, suggests that we are confused. Adjusted for likelihood of voting, barely half know how they would vote, with 46% choosing ‘don’t know’ or ‘won’t vote’. Among the half that did make a choice, Reform UK leads, slightly ahead of Labour and Conservatives. And the picture is as confused in the East of England as anywhere.
The global picture
In 2024, the worldwide electoral mood was to reject incumbents, whatever their parties, to punish them for economic stagnation. It just happened that in Britain, the incumbents were Conservatives. So, by adding the disaffected voters to their core vote, first past the post voting gave the Labour Party a hugely disproportionate majority of seats.
But now that Labour are the incumbents, people are still disaffected and they are once again seeking a new home. The Conservative Party, after years of confusion and incompetence, lacks credibility as an alternative. So, it is not surprising that a party which presents itself as a challenge to the status quo should attract support. This is especially true when the media give air time to their attacks on the two main parties, without much scrutiny of their own policies, many of which would be deeply unpopular with their supporters.
MRP polling
Recently, there has been some media excitement about an MRP poll from Electoral Calculus, which showed that in an election now, parliament would be divided three ways between Conservative, Labour and Reform UK.
Unlike conventional polls, which tell us about national vote share, MRP polls produce estimates at the level of individual constituencies. That matters, since what counts in a general election is numbers of seats in Parliament. But they should be treated with caution, since they are highly sensitive to the assumptions built into the pollsters’ models. But they can suggest patterns and the map shows the poll results in the East of England.
The rise of Reform
One reason that Labour did so well in 2024 was that the right-wing vote was split between Conservatives and Reform UK. This poll suggests that that split is no longer as significant. While only small numbers of 2024 Labour and Liberal Democrat voters are switching to Reform, 20% of 2024 Conservatives say they will do so. That tilts the balance substantially in many constituencies.
This poll suggests that in an election now, Reform’s current three MPs would be joined by at least another four (Thurrock, South West Norfolk, Basildon & Billericay and Castle Point). And there are seven more seats where their vote share is within five points of the winners (four predicted Labour wins and three Conservative).
The revival of Conservatives?
Historically, the East of England is a broadly conservative region, and this poll suggests that there are areas where voters are now willing to forgive the Conservative Party, after a protest vote in 2024. Fourteen seats which Labour took from Conservatives in 2024 would return to the Conservative fold, and in nine of those, Reform UK would be in second place. Overall, in the East, there are 20 seats where the Conservatives are within 5% of winning.
Liberals holding on
The Liberal Democrats did extremely well in 2024. By focusing on key target seats, they got 72 MPs with 12% of the national vote share. By contrast, Reform UK, whose support is more widely spread, got more votes (14%) but won only five seats.
The poll suggests that in the East, the Liberal Democrats could hold their position. They would keep five of their seven seats and in St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire and Ely & East Cambridgeshire, they are very close behind the Conservatives.
The rebound against Labour
It is unsurprising that there has been a reaction against Labour. Much of their success last year was a protest vote and some of the protesters hoped (quite unrealistically) for overnight change. The media focus on the state of the economy in the second half of 2024 encourages people to believe the government is failing, though it must mainly reflect decisions made by the previous government.
From this poll, the worst case for Labour would see them holding only eight of their current seats, a dramatic drop from their current 27, but still much stronger than their pre 2024 position. They might lose 19 seats, but in most of these, the winner’s predicted lead is less than 5%. However, there are six exceptions where they look seriously threatened. In Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard, Peterborough, Cambridgeshire North West, Suffolk Coastal, Bury St Edmunds & Stowmarket and Thurrock, the Conservatives would win. More strikingly, in all these, Labour could be forced into third place behind Reform UK.
Gloom about the future
One of the most important drivers of election choice is optimism. If the future does not look better than the past, people usually vote against the incumbent government, whoever it is. So, the poll asked respondents, “Do you think your personal finances will get better or worse over the coming year compared with last year?” Although the next year is a very limited period, it is probably a fair indication of optimism.
Overwhelmingly, people were pessimistic. Nationwide, the net score for optimism was -37 (49% choosing ‘a bit worse’ or ‘much worse’, and only 12% choosing ‘a bit better’, or ‘much better’). Pessimism was greatest among older people, lower socio-economic groups and Brexit leavers.
Overall pessimism was as strong in the East as nationally, but levels of pessimism varied considerably by area. In the seats which Labour is predicted to hold, optimism is -34, compared to -47 in seats predicted for Reform UK. Interestingly, in the one Green seat of Waveney Valley, the score is also -47, suggesting that they are appealing to some of the same disaffections. Seven of the most optimistic constituencies are home to universities, led by Cambridge and Norwich South.
What does this tell us?
So, this poll tells us that people are pessimistic about the future and uncertain about who stands the best chance of improving things. Some hope that the radical and untried alternative of Reform might be the answer. But almost identical numbers would put their trust in one of the two main parties. When the time comes, the outcome will probably depend on the ‘don’t knows’ and the ‘won’t voters’. And global factors might well have a bearing: when war threatens, people tend to back incumbents. The main parties are right to be worried, but this is a very long game.
