UPDATED 10 May 2026
How bad was it really?
In the days after the election the media get very excited, telling stories of grand drama. And certainly there was drama. But it is also important to stand back and compare what happened with what was expected. Two sources help, and they suggest a more nuanced story than the media are circulating.
At the beginning of May Peter Kellner published a handy chart to judge the results of the local elections. He assessed what a given seat total would mean for each party, on the basis of recent national polling, using a four point scale – Joy, Relief, Disappointment, and Disaster.
The final result is not exactly what the media coverage suggests. Most strikingly, although Reform’s total has risen from 2 to 1444 seats, it is significantly worse than recent polling suggests.
This is confirmed by PollCheck who gathered the election forecasts from ten pollsters. Overall they predicted more dramatic change than actually happened. They found Reform performing at the bottom of their expected range of gains, and Labour doing rather better than the polls were predicting.
These numbers demonstrate very clearly how unrepresentative results are when first past the post elections are held with five parties in contention.
Although no one has yet produced detailed figures, several commentators have observed a close correlation between the Reform vote and the previous Brexit vote. The bigger the vote for Brexit in an area, the more likely it is to have voted Reform, and vice versa.
Reform surges as Labour slips and Tories slump
The local elections across the East of England have confirmed one thing above all else: the old two-party map is fracturing fast. Reform UK surged across much of the region, the Greens made significant gains in urban areas, and the Liberal Democrats strengthened their hold in parts of Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire.
Beyond the county councils (results in the story below), in Norwich, the Greens took control from Labour – not a shock, but a significant shift in a city where the two parties have long been neck and neck. Labour also lost overall control of Cambridge City Council, leaving the council in no overall control after a difficult night for the party in one of its traditional university-city bases.
In Ipswich Borough Council, where a third of seats were up for election, Labour held onto its majority, but the arrival of 10 Reform councillors marks a significant shift in the town’s political landscape.
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats tightened their grip on South Cambridgeshire District Council, while in Huntingdonshire District Council they emerged as the largest party and may now seek to govern with other progressive groupings.
The most dramatic result came in Thurrock Council, where Reform swept to power with 45 of the council’s 49 seats, demolishing Labour and Conservative representation alike. In contrast, Harlow District Council bucked the regional trend entirely, with the Conservatives not only holding control but gaining seats from Labour while largely resisting the Reform advance.
Across the region, turnout appears to have risen sharply, with some areas reporting participation above 50% – unusually high for local elections. Reform’s success was driven overwhelmingly by national rather than local issues, with immigration, the cost of living and distrust of Westminster dominating much of the campaign.
The results suggest that politics in the East is becoming less predictable, more fragmented and increasingly detached from the old loyalties that once defined local government. With several council leaders losing their seats, the idea of a “safe seat” is beginning to look like a relic of another era.
County Council results in the east
The final results are in for those counties holding election this year. Reform UK have made significant gains in the east, taking control of both Essex and Suffolk county councils, but they fell short of a majority in Norfolk which will be under no overall control. It was an absolute blow-out for the Conservatives which held big majorities across all three councils.
Normally, councillors will expect to remain in post for four years. But these elections were different – they will only be in post for two years. This is because of ‘local government reorganisation’, where the layers of councils (county and district/city/borough) are abolished, to be replaced by new unitary authorities. In Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex, this will come into being in 2028. Meanwhile, next May, all three counties will go to the polls again, this time to elect a ‘shadow council’ ahead of the reorganisation. So, if Reform want to hold onto those seats next May, they have exactly a year to impress voters.
Essex
- Reform UK: 53 seats
- Conservatives: 13 seats
- Liberal Democrats: 5 seats
- Independents: 2
- Labour: 1
- Greens: 1
- Residents for Uttlesford: 1
- The People’s Independent Party: 1
Suffolk
- Reform UK: 41 seats
- Green: 13
- Conservatives: 9
- Labour: 3
- Liberal Democrats: 2
- Independent: 2
Norfolk
- Reform UK: 40
- Lib Dems: 13
- Greens: 12
- Great Yarmouth First: 9
- Conservatives: 8
- Labour: 1
- Independent: 1
8 May 14:55
Troubling point for Labour in the East
The local election results point up a particularly significant and troubling point for Labour here in the east. Analysis over the past couple of years has shown Labour loses votes, not to Reform but overwhelmingly to the Greens. Many of these current results support this analysis. Labour is losing seats to Reform, but not votes. If that sounds counterintuitive, it’s because with their votes flowing to the Greens, it’s resulting in a left-wing vote split allowing Reform to sail through the middle to win the seats.
But what of those seats in Labour’s traditional Red Wall in the north west? They are being lost comprehensively to Reform, with the Greens playing no role. So in spite of Labour’s laborious strategy since the government was elected having been to appeal to this sector, it looks as though they can no longer be seen as recalcitrant Labour voters making a protest. They are now fully fledged Reformers. Yet will Labour still insist that its core vote is really still in its former industrial heartlands, rather than (as evidence suggests) among young graduates in the south?
8 May 13:50
Greens and Conservatives performing better than expected
Interesting reports from Framlingham and Wickham Market – surprisingly won by the Greens – of the number of young voters, with some people voting for the first time and asking advice on how to do it.
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The recovery of the Tory vote seems to emphasise the polls which show us that, though perhaps a third of voters might vote for Reform, two thirds oppose them completely, So the implication is that the Reform vote can’t eat much further into traditional Conservative voters. Nor can they look to Labour, for whom – in England at least – lost votes are almost entirely to the Greens, not Reform. So they seem to have reached their maximum.
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There are rumours from within the hall at Ipswich that Reform candidates are refusing to speak to journalists or have their pictures taken. Make of that what you will. Results still pending.
8 May 11:15
The motivations of Reform voters
Reform voters are being mocked because they don’t even know Reform’s policies. But of course they don’t. Few voters know much about the policies of the party they vote for. That is to misunderstand what motivates people to vote as they do, and it is an utter misconception to see policies as what brings Reform their voters. Nigel Farage is a disruptor, and he has invented a party in his image. They are disruptors too. They break china, and that is their appeal. With the abject failure of the traditional parties, Voters want somebody who will do just that: give the system a kicking.
8 May 10:45
John Curtice makes some interesting points
John Curtice makes the interesting point that Labour are losing lots of seat to Reform, but not because Labour voters have moved there. Labour are actually losing votes to the Greens, as usual, but the Tories are losing votes to Reform, and in Labour seats that’s enough to give the vote to Reform.
John Curtice also notes that the Reform vote is strongest in those areas which voted Leave.
8 May – 07:30
Overnight results: swing to Reform, but not overwhelming
Most of the local elections don’t start counting until Friday morning, but seven of ours counted overnight and already have results. The swing to Reform is evident, but not overwhelming.
In all seven, no party has overall control. In Rochford Reform is the largest party, but nowhere do they have a majority.
The most striking result is that in four cases – Harlow, Brentwood, Basildon and Rochford – the most likely coalition is Con/Ref, but in all four they would have the slimmest of majorities (1 vote).
In Colchester Lab/LibDem and Green together have a majority of 2
In Southend a coalition of Lab/LibDem/Greens would be 2 short of a majority, but a Con/Ref coalition would be 4 short.
In Peterborough Independents appear to hold the balance
Will the people who abandoned the Tories for Reform be pleased to find that their votes put the Conservatives back in control.?
(bear in mind that most of these are authorities where only one third of councilors are elected at a time. That reduces the chance of dramatic change)
7 May 2026
Badenoch makes the case in Suffolk
Kemi Badenoch brought her pitch to Suffolk this week, travelling the short distance from her Essex constituency to rally support ahead of polling day. Acknowledging the party’s heavy losses in 2024, she argued the Conservatives now offer a “new” and credible alternative – while directing most of her fire at Reform UK. Voters tempted by Reform elsewhere, she warned, are already having second thoughts: “You have to live with what you vote for.”
The Conservatives are promising investment in high streets and roads, funded through savings, asset sales and borrowing. Whether that constitutes renewal or a familiar script in a new setting may be for voters to decide.
Restore-linked candidate faces misconduct allegations
A candidate linked to Rupert Lowe’s Great Yarmouth First party is facing allegations of misconduct following the emergence of private messages. Jon Wedon, the MP’s constituency office manager and a candidate in Lothingland, is accused of mocking a colleague and suggesting ways she could be dismissed. The messages, reportedly from late 2024, include references to autism, though the individual concerned is understood not to have the condition.
Mr Wedon disputes the claims, which are now the subject of active court proceedings. His solicitors have challenged both the accuracy of the allegations and how the material was obtained. The row raises questions about candidate vetting in a party that has emphasised its local credentials, and adds to a growing list of controversies surrounding new political groupings ahead of polling day.
(Via LDRS)
Farage denies NHS “sell-off” claims
Nigel Farage has dismissed claims that Reform UK would sell off the NHS as “complete lies”, while reiterating his call for “radical reform”. Speaking in a rare sighting in Frinton-on-Sea, the Clacton MP insisted treatment would remain free at the point of delivery, but criticised how the service is run. He also took the opportunity to remind critics that he lives in Essex “half the week”, a claim that has recently attracted more attention than most MPs’ residency arrangements. Labour, meanwhile, continues to warn that Reform’s approach to the NHS represents a more serious threat than its traditional Tory rivals.
(Via LDRS)
Reform accused over ‘misleading’ translation claims
Reform UK has been criticised for leaflets claiming Suffolk County Council spends £283,000 on translation services for people who “refuse to integrate”. Opponents say the figure is misleading and risks inflaming tensions.
The total appears to have been compiled from payments to translation providers, but council data shows the most recent annual spend was closer to £240,000 – covering a wide range of services, including support for children, families from Ukraine and people with hearing or sight difficulties. Around £210,000 was spent on children and young people.
Identical leaflets have surfaced across multiple regions with only minor edits, suggesting a national template rather than a local concern. Critics say it is less about explaining council spending than about stoking grievance – and a reminder that some campaigns prefer heat to light.
(Via LDRS)
Suffolk votes – what you need to know
Voters head to the polls tomorrow with control of Suffolk County Council at stake. All 70 county seats are up for election, alongside a third of those on Ipswich Borough Council, where Labour’s majority means control is not in doubt. The Conservatives currently hold the county council but face a fragmented opposition. There is also a by-election in West Suffolk’s Abbeygate ward.
Votes will be counted on Friday, with those elected serving for just two years. That shorter term reflects major changes ahead: under government plans, Suffolk’s county, district and borough councils will be replaced by three new unitary authorities. Elections for “shadow” bodies will take place in 2027, ahead of full transition in 2028.
(Via LDRS)
Lib Dems upbeat – voters less convinced
The Liberal Democrats are talking up their prospects ahead of 7 May, with party president Josh Babarinde predicting they could become one of the largest forces in local government. Campaigning in Chelmsford, he pointed to recent by-election success and the party’s growth under Ed Davey. On the doorstep, however, the mood was more cautious. One resident spoke of a broader loss of trust in politics, a sentiment Mr Babarinde acknowledged, arguing the Lib Dems’ strength lies in local candidates focused on everyday concerns rather than Westminster “bubble” debates.
(Via LDRS)
We’ve made Threads blush
‘Reform surging, Greens rising…’
Threads didn’t like the sound of our little puff to discuss the elections. They seemed instead to have thought it was about erections, and removed our missive. ‘The post may help or encourage sexual activities,’ they declared primly. On the other hand, perhaps they are members of Labour or the Conservatives, and were disconsolate at the idea they are collapsing.
Or being prissy social media companies, they probably don’t like the idea of sexual activity at all. Fascism? That will do nicely. But sex, with the danger that people may be having a good time… oh no. That will never do.
Why can’t they all just get on?
Kevin Bonavia (Stevenage) is stirring the Greens anti-semitism pot vigorously, it is reported. His opponents take the view that this may just be merely for party advantage. However true or not, it seems to be doing little to enhance the spirit of the elections.
It seems relations between Labour and Greens generally are becoming increasingly vicious, as Labour attempts to see off who they regard as the carpetbaggers on their patch. It is unlikely to represent a wise long term strategy for a renaissance of the left.
East Anglia Bylines takes no party political position on anything; but is much more likely to take an interest in those parties which can work together, rather than preferring vicious in-fighting. Anybody who wants an end to first past the post must surely realise we also have to reject first past the post attitudes, of which this is one. We cannot expect parties to work together in government when they pursue a mutual hatred.
Election Day: don’t forget to vote
Polls are open until 10.00.
It is really important to vote because turnout in local elections is usually low, which means that activists have disproportionate influence.
Remember to take a recognised form of ID.
If you want to vote to keep out right wing parties you can find our tactical recommendations for the county councils (Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk) below (scroll down this page).
You can also see tactical recommendations for many elections on the the Stop Reform website.
And the PollCheck website offers predicted results for every division and ward.
In our region today there are elections for:
- Three county councils – Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk – all seats up for election
- Two unitary authorities – Thurrock (all seats), and Southend (one third of seats)
- Two district councils electing all councillors – Huntingdonshire and South Cambridgeshire
- Fourteen district councils electing one third of councillors – Norwich, Peterborough, Cambridge, Ipswich, Stevenage, Welwyn Hatfield, Watford, Colchester, Broxbourne, Harlow, Epping Forest, Brentwood, Basildon and Rochford.
6 May 2006
Calling Stevenage: turnout is crucial
Internal polling from one of the parties suggests Reform could win 10 of Stevenage’s 14 county council seats – though a higher turnout would likely blunt that advance.
Reform has been doing well for some time in some traditionally Labour-voting areas with higher levels of deprivation, but this would mark a notable shift. Stevenage has long been something of a bellwether, and while Labour still dominates locally, a Reform breakthrough here could signal a deeper realignment. It may even represent the first council in the region to move from Labour’s orbit towards Reform, something not currently expected in Ipswich, Norwich or Cambridge.
Might there be a ‘dead cat’ reshuffle?
There are rumours that if the local elections go as badly for Labour as is predicted, Sir Keir will swiftly turn to a cabinet reshuffle. It is difficult to see the wisdom in such a move, other than as an attempted ‘dead cat’ manoeuvre to get Labour’s losses out of the headlines. But it might as easily be seen as just that, and further worsen his standing.
The PM is more unpopular than any other party leader. He is more unpopular than any member of his cabinet. So having the temerity to imply that in some way his cabinet haven’t been up to the job, whilst keeping his own, may appear as though he is overly appreciative of his own good qualities.
5 May 2026
Reform UK splash the cash – is the Electoral Commission noticing?
Received wisdom claims that, to win an election, you need a strong ground game: that is, activists to do the canvassing and knocking-up. Reform don’t have that. For the most part their supporters join in order to stick it to the lefties, not the shlepp around the streets every evening. So instead, Reform are pouring money into it.
That received wisdom would cast doubt on how that can work. But if it does, and Reform succeeds. what impact will that have on future elections? Will it begin to make dedicated party workers redundant? Will it mean it all comes down to how much moolah you have to throw about? In which case, isn’t our democracy up for sale to the highest bidder?
It is something which ought seriously to concern the Electoral Commission. Readers might like to make their own judgement on whether it will.
Hand-to-hand fighting in Norwich
The battle for electoral supremacy in Norwich, between Labour and Greens, has been poisonous in recent years. So it continues, with savage accusations by Labour that the Greens are only fielding in seats they can’t win in order to split the vote, in order to hand it to Reform. SInce Greens and Labour are engaged in hand-to-hand fighting over control of the city, one less Labour victory – even if instead that means the seat goes to Reform – would mean one less Labour vote in the council chamber.
Reform UK message is not focused
It is clear that, without too many troops on the ground, Reform have opted to use their strength, apparently almost unlimited financial resources, as their principal weapon. Voters are being inundated with generalised party propaganda, which does not mention either the ward or the candidate, so avoiding the financial restrictions otherwise imposed by the Electoral Commission.
The message is also generic: “Get Starmer out”, though these elections are for councils and the message has no bearing on the services they provide. It is an appeal to voters’ gut, an invitation to avoid having to understand what councils do, or form an opinion on how they might improve. It is an appeal to the lazy voter, who can’t be troubled with detail.
1 May 2026
Huntingdonshire: an all out, five way, election
On 7 May we have local elections. In many councils only one third of councillors are being elected. But in Huntingdonshire, all 52 seats are up for election, so the results may be more dramatic. There are 26 wards; the most rural ones with just one councillor, while others have two, and in some urban wards, three. So, what might we expect?
Huntingdonshire District Council has been dominated by the Conservative Party since its creation in 1974. That all changed in 2022 when, despite being the largest party, the Conservatives found themselves in opposition, outnumbered by the other councillors who formed a coalition to take control. Since then, no fewer than 9 Councillors have changed their political allegiance, with the net change being that the Liberal Democrats and the Greens increased their numbers at the expense of the other parties and Independents.
When the election was called, the Council was under the control of a “rainbow coalition” led by the Liberal Democrats.
The Council area straddles three parliamentary constituencies, North-West Cambridgeshire, Huntingdon and St Neots and Mid-Cambridgeshire which between them return MPs for Labour, Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. At District Council level, the strong presence of Independents – of various descriptions – has been a feature of the Council for many years and although the Conservatives contested every seat in 2022, no other party did, which resulted in four Conservative Councillors being elected unopposed.
Not so this time! Most wards have 5-way contests. The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Reform and the Greens have candidates in every ward. The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform each have a full slate of 52 candidates; the Greens have 33, Labour 26, Independents 13 and other parties, 2.
PollCheck and Britain Votes Now both predict that no party will have overall control after the election. But their predictions for individual wards, and the overall results for each party differ widely. The chart shows the current party balance, and the two predictions. On 8th May we will see how accurate they have been.
Forward Democracy has created a tactical voting tool for voters whose primary aim is to stop Reform or the Tories winning in their ward. In Huntingdonshire it gives a clear recommendation for tactical voting in most wards, but not all, as some wards are considered ‘safe’ and in some others it isn’t clear who has the best chance of beating Reform or the Tories.”
30 April 2026
Tactical voting – how to decide
To help those considering voting tactically in the local elections on 7 May, we have produced some suggestions. These are based on the two websites which project outcomes at the level of individual council seats: PollCheck and BritainVotesNow. We explained this in our recent article.
The two sites use different methodologies, so they produce rather different results. We have concentrated on those where they broadly agree, and we assume that tactical voters wish to ensure the election of councillors from progressive parties (Lab, LibDem and Green).
You will find our suggestions for the three county councils – Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk – below. All are currently Conservative controlled, and all polling suggests that Reform will take control of all three on 7th May.
Tactical voting for Essex County Council
On 7 May, some voters will want to vote for whichever progressive party (Lab, LibDem or Green) is most likely to win in their electoral division. So, we have produced some tactical voting suggestions. They are based on the two websites which project outcomes at the level of individual electoral divisions: PollCheck and BritainVotesNow. We explained this in our recent article.
The two sites use different methodologies, and they disagree on some points. Our recommendations are based on two tests of the data:
- The size of the total progressive vote share. We have excluded seats where the chances of a progressive win are very small (places where both sites predict a combined progressive vote share below 45%).
- The gap between the Reform vote share and the closest progressive party. We have excluded seats where both sites expect that to be larger than 12%.
There are 78 seats on Essex county council (Southend and Thurrock are separate councils). Both sites agree that Reform will win 58 of them, but they disagree about numbers for other parties. PollCheck expects Labour to do better, and Britain votes expects LibDems to do so.
There are large areas where first and second place are projected for Reform and Conservative, and in half of the seats their combined vote share is over two thirds, making progressive tactical voting probably pointless.
A feature of Essex is a number of strong Independent groups. The Residents for Uttlesford party can expect to take the three seats in the North West. The Loughton Residents Association are the projected winners in Loughton, and the Canvey Island Residents are close to Reform in both the Canvey Island seats.
We make no suggestions for three of the Colchester seats, because the two sites disagree fundamentally, with several parties in contention. PollCheck predicts wins for Labour in Abbey and Maypole, and for Reform in North. But BritainVotes predicts Green wins in Abbey and North and a Reform win in Maypole.
The table shows our recommended tactical vote for 24 seats which are currently predicted as progressive wins, or where one or both the sites suggest that a progressive party is within reach of winning. The margin figures are the difference between the projected vote share for the recommended party and Reform. As you can see, the two usually disagree about the vote shares for specific parties
Because the two websites differ considerably, we show the margins from both. and those where one progressive party is close behind Reform. Positive numbers indicate that the party is currently expected to win.
If you do not see your division on the list, you can check what the two sites are predicting for each seat at PollCheck, and BritainVotesNow.
29 April 2026
Tactical Voting for Suffolk County Council
To help progressive voters considering voting tactically in the local elections on 7 May, we have produced some suggestions. These are based on the two websites which project outcomes at the level of individual electoral divisions: PollCheck and BritainVotesNow. We explained this in our recent article.
The two sites use different methodologies, and in Suffolk they produce very different results. They often disagree about the scale of the winning party’s lead, but they usually agree about which party that is, and which party is runner up.
To produce our recommendations we have applied two tests to the data:
- The size of the total progressive vote share (Lab, LibDem and Green). We have excluded divisions where that falls below 45% on both sites.
- The gap between the Reform vote share and the closest progressive party. We have excluded divisions where that is larger than 10%. In some cases the progressive party is third, after Reform and Conservative.
Of the 70 county council electoral divisions in Suffolk, the two sites agree that Reform will win 58. Overall, PollCheck expects Greens and Labour to do better than BritainVotes does.
The table shows our recommendation for each of the 25 Divisions where both our tests are met on one or both of the sites. In all but five they both predict Reform wins. Our recommended tactical vote is for the progressive party with the highest predicted vote share. An asterisk indicates a division where Reform and Conservatives are first and second, and the recommended party is in third place.
There are two Divisions, both in Ipswich, where there is a strong progressive vote share, but it is impossible to make a recommendation.
- In Westgate, PollCheck has Reform 17 points ahead, with the LibDems in second place, but BritainVotes has Labour, Reform and LibDems neck and neck around 23 points.
- In St Margarets BritainVotes has Labour on 31, seven points ahead of Green and Reform tied on 23 each. But PollCheck has Reform on 34, with LibDem, Green and Labour all around 20.
This data was correct at 26 April, but the two websites are updating their projections as new data emerges. So before voting it is worth checking them. You can find them at PollCheck, and BritainVotesNow.
28 April 2026
Tactical voting for Norfolk County Council
In Norfolk there are 84 county council electoral divisions. The two site project the following results:
Norwich has a very distinctive politics, with its 12 divisions dominated by rivalry between Labour and Greens, with hardly any presence for other parties. So, our recommendations here relate to the rest of the county.
Outside Norwich, there are 15 county council divisions where the two websites agree that likely results will be close enough to make a tactical recommendation.
Our recommendations
The table shows our recommendations in these 15 seats.
There are two seats on the outskirts of Norwich (Hethersett and Thorpe St Andrew) where the conservative bloc vote is larger than the progressive one. But in both cases the conservative votes are split between Conservative and Reform, which could allow a progressive candidate to win.
This data was correct at 24 April, but the two websites are updating their projections as new data emerges. So before voting it is worth checking them. You can find them at PollCheck, and BritainVotesNow.
27 April 2026
The ghost of administrations future?
Is East Anglia to be governed by a ghost party? Driving around the region, there is no evidence that Reform even exists – no canvassers, no posters. Yet the polls claim they will win huge swathes of our councils. How can that happen? They lack activists, they lack organisation, but they don’t lack money. They have millions, much of it from controversial sources, and they are spending it on a huge barrage of social media intervention and glossy mailshots. Are they buying our democracy?
How can a party of which we know so little be about to take over the councils which govern our lives?
Can you help us cover next week’s elections?
Although some of the likely outcomes of next week’s local elections are fairly predictable, there are some exceptions. We would like to hear from anyone who would like to write for us on any of these (or others). They include:
Norwich – here Labour and Greens have been fighting each other for years, and the Greens hope to take control of the City council, and perhaps the county council seats. Will they win, and what would it mean?.
Great Yarmouth – In Great Yarmouth Reform UK would have expected to do well, but the local Reform MP, Rupert Lowe quarrelled with Nigel Farage, and left to form his own party. Great Yarmouth First is standing 10 candidates. Will this split the far right vote, and if so what will be the result?
Suffolk – in parts of Suffolk the Greens did well in the 2023 district council elections. They have a majority in Mid Suffolk and are the largest party in both East Suffolk and Babergh district councils. Will their rise continue this time?
North West Essex – this is Kemi Badenoch’s Westminster seat, but Residents for Uttlesford are the largest party on the council, well ahead of the Conservatives. Will they retain control of the council?
Canvey Island – Most of South Essex is expected to swing from Conservative to Reform, but Canvey Island politics here has long been dominated by two Independent parties. Will they continue in power against the general swing?
Cambridge – Labour have long held control of the City council, but the party is unpopular, and the surrounding areas are dominated by Liberal Democrats. Will the latter succeed in taking power?
Clacton – Nigel Farage has been MP here since 2024, but he has spent a lot of time abroad and on national politics, and some people locally have suggested that he has neglected his constituency. What might these elections tell us about his standing?
If you have local knowledge of any of these areas, and would like to write for us (an article – 6-800 words), or just a short blog post (1-200) please email stephenmcnair@eastangliabylines.co.uk or editor@eastangliabylines.co.uk
26 April 2026
Lib Dems warn of Reform “chaos” in Norfolk
With polls suggesting Reform could take control of Norfolk County Council, the Liberal Democrats are urging caution. Deputy leader Daisy Cooper, speaking in North Walsham, argued voters frustrated with the Conservatives risk replacing one problem with another. She pointed to what she described as “chaos and broken promises” in Reform-run councils elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems face their own challenge, with forecasts suggesting losses in their North Norfolk heartland. Their pitch remains familiar: competent local management, cheaper buses and a promise to restore trust in politics.
Greens promise more than a name on the ballot
With local elections approaching, the Greens are keen to stress they offer more than paper candidates. Deputy leader Rachel Millward toured Suffolk over the weekend, while Adrian Ramsay pointed to the party’s record in councils it already leads. With control of Mid Suffolk and a strong presence in East Suffolk and Babergh, the Greens argue they are active community representatives, not just a name on the ballot paper. As Reform looms as a key challenger, they are pitching themselves as the party of “people and nature” – and of local delivery.
Reform: sightings, scandals and splits
Nigel Farage has been spotted in his own constituency, an event of sufficient rarity to merit coverage by Essex Live. The Clacton MP insists he lives in Frinton “half the week”, rising early to collect bread and papers, and dismisses criticism as “pathetic”. Most MPs manage to appear in their constituencies without it becoming a news story, but then most MPs are not accused of being largely absent. Some local business owners say they are still waiting for replies to calls made last year. Others remain loyal. The sighting, nonetheless, has been duly recorded.
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Reform’s candidate in Norwich has attracted attention for rather more than his policy platform. Richard Eminson, standing in Lakenham, faces possible disciplinary action after social media posts revealed both a willingness to pose naked and an admiration for figures such as Tommy Robinson, whom he described as an “icon”. Party figures have struck an interesting balance, describing the imagery as “almost artistic” while expressing concern about the politics. As he has already been nominated, there is little the party can do before polling day, though the question of the whip may await him after.
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Meanwhile in Great Yarmouth, Reform faces a challenge from its own past. Its former MP for the constituency, Rupert Lowe – now sitting as an independent and leading the even more rightward “Restore” party – has accused his old colleagues of arrogance after they failed to attend an event at a local pub. Reform blames security concerns following a planned protest. The dispute is the latest in a series of increasingly public rows, with candidates and former members trading accusations as polling day approaches. For a party presenting itself as a disciplined insurgency, it is finding that insurgents can just as easily turn on each other.
24 April 2026
Pecksniff’s snippets
Last month we heard that Bath Olivers are to be no more. Then comes the announcement that there is to be no more patum peperium, the gentleman’s relish. Both staples of our glorious English heritage. If Nigel Farage really cared about English culture, we would hear more of these outrages.
Cabinet rumours swirl, No 10 responds
Reports suggesting Keir Starmer could face a leadership challenge have been firmly dismissed by 10 Downing Street. According to recent claims, some Cabinet ministers are said to be in private discussions about the timing of any intervention and who should deliver it. No 10 moved quickly to shut down the speculation, with a spokesperson stating: “The Prime Minister will continue to lead the Government throughout this Parliament and beyond.” The intervention draws a line under the rumours, though questions about Labour’s internal cohesion are unlikely to disappear.
Does it really make no difference?
A YouGov poll finds 41% of Britons think it makes little or no difference who runs their local council. That is a striking level of disengagement, and perhaps not entirely surprising. Much of what councils do is constrained by central government funding and ring-fenced budgets, leaving limited room for political manoeuvre. But to conclude it makes no difference at all is to miss the point. Priorities still matter – and who sets them shapes the services people rely on most.
Cleverly eyes London as leadership hopes fade
This week, James Cleverly, MP for Braintree, let it be known he would be interested in standing as the Conservative candidate in the London mayoral elections. In doing so he appears to be acknowledging that his parliamentary ambitions are coming to a close. Cleverly had been seen as one of two possible contenders as party leader, with Robert Jenrick, eventually to challenge Kemi Badenoch. But Jenrick has moved to Reform, and instead of seeing his path clear, it looks as though Cleverly may decide to turn his ambitions elsewhere.
The squeezed centre shrinks to 7%
In a recent poll, Lord Ashcroft looked at those voters he sees as the true centrists, those who reject both Greens and Reform, and find they represent only a tiny 7% of the electorate. That so small a number are not open to the blandishments of either of the parties who want to overthrow the status quo shows just how split we are as a nation.
22 April 2026
Concerned neighbour, copy-and-paste campaign
There have already been several reports from around the region of Reform adopting the same tactic which was so criticised in the recent Welsh by election. They send out a supposed letter from a concerned neighbour, asking for your vote to put right what’s wrong with the community. The wording of the letter is identical wherever it appears, with just the local electoral division pasted in.
There is nothing illegal about this, of course. But it is a deliberate attempt to have voters believe this candidate is a neighbour, when the candidate may never even have visited the neighbourhood and was only recruited to stand as a Reform candidate last week.
None of the numbers look good for Labour
PollCheck for More in Common gives this analysis for the council elections… Reform to win 1273 to 1741 seats, Greens 573 to 1603, LibDems 148 to 503, Labour -1867 to -1597, and Conservatives -692 to -368. It is interesting that one scenario would make the Greens the overall victor.”
20 April 2026
A national pitch for local votes
Reform UK is approaching these local elections with a commendable disregard for what local government actually does. In Bury St Edmunds, voters are promised action on immigration, Net Zero and the cost of living – matters which even the most diligent councillor would struggle to influence between planning committees and bin collections.
Their slogan, “Fix broken Britain”, rather gives the game away. Having acquired a clutch of councils last year, you might expect examples of competent governance. Instead, what has emerged from them is a pattern of resignations, suspensions and administrative chaos, with meetings cancelled and scrutiny curtailed.
Westminster rhetoric in parish clothing – and precious little evidence from the shires to back it up.
Pecksniff’s snippets
The party in Fenland lost seats to Reform, but Councillor Chris Boden typifies his party’s renewed optimism.
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The high priestess of the Temple of Apollo was the Pythia, who delivered her prophesies in a trance. The Muckrakers Arms has its own Pythia, who also delivers prophesies in a trance (though some insist it’s the rum and blacks). Pythia (or Ruby as she is otherwise known) insists Reform won’t have it all their own way.
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There is discussion as to the number of women in politics, and many women blame men and male attitudes for discouraging them from standing as candidates. Those male attitudes, eh? The goddess Circe was inclined to turn men she didn’t like into pigs, a power many women have envied and, from evidence, appear to have attained.
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There seems more inclination in election literature for parties to spend valuable space in knocking their opponents. But it is telling that they only attack those they see as serious competition. In the east of the region the Liberal Democrats have never had much of a presence, so it is perhaps understandable that they don’t often feature in the negative copy. But it is interesting that sometimes Labour isn’t mentioned either.
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An MRP analysis by Prosper UK, the new Conservative-backing pressure group, shows that, in the parliamentary seats the Conservatives lost in 2024, while they have lost many voters to Reform UK, the combined pool of voters who have drifted to Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens, or who are now undecided or disengaged is larger.
The leaflet loophole
There are complaints that Reform are swamping the region with leaflets which don’t address themselves to a particular local election and don’t include the candidate’s name. This may be because Reform have had difficulty finding candidates, up to the last minute and probably after the print deadline.
But it may also be a simple way of getting round the election rules. There are strict limits on how much each candidate can spend; but if there is no candidate named then the rule doesn’t apply. Reform can spend as much on generic material as they like.
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While Reform and Restore struggle for supremacy in Great Yarmouth, they will be facing the Communist Party in Nelson ward, with the catchy slogan: “Change everything”.
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