Before the 2024 election there were some hints that Labour had plans for some kind of electoral reform, but things have been quiet so far. However, last week the government announced plans to abolish first past the post for mayoral elections, and this week we are told that Parliament will consider an Elections Bill in the next session. There is widespread agreement that our creaking and dysfunctional electoral system needs reform, though disagreement about what changes are needed, and how far to go. For many people, the real prize would be replacing first past the post with a proportional voting system for all elections, not just mayors. What are the chances of that?
In 2022, when the Labour Party was far from power, the party conference voted to replace our first-past-the-post electoral system with a proportional one. Although it was a large vote, supported by both constituency and union representatives, the party leadership disagreed, and it was not included in the 2024 manifesto. And by careful targeting effort on winnable seats, the party succeeded in winning the largest parliamentary majority for nearly a century. But it did so with only the smallest vote share of any winning party in that period. In only 73 of the 650 seats did the winner get over 50% of the vote, and one in five MPs now has a majority of under 5%. Now they have announced plans for reform in the next Parliamentary session.
The anti-incumbency mood
The 2024 majority has not given Labour comfortable power. The win was propelled by an electorate angry about stagnant living conditions and distrust in politics. Last summer, the National Centre for Social Research reported that “people’s trust in governments and politicians, and confidence in their systems of government is as low now as it has ever been over the last fifty years, if not lower.” The proportion of people who say they ‘almost never’ trust government has risen dramatically, and the hostility to the party in power, which lost the Conservatives their majority, transferred almost immediately to Labour.
Labour’s vote share was always precarious, and since the election, they have lost their poll lead faster than previous governments. Current polling suggests that they could lose a general election to Reform, a party with only four MPs and almost no published policy. Labour strategists would be unwise to assume that they could secure a majority again under the present system.
The 2025 test
The local elections in May confirmed a continuing dissatisfaction with the main parties. There were two notable swings. Reform UK won 677 seats, almost exactly the number the Conservatives lost, while Labour lost 187, close to the number won by Liberal Democrats. Six mayors were elected, but only one secured more than 35% of votes cast. That is a weak mandate for a mayor, and compares with the 2021 result, when the 7 mayors elected under the Alternative Vote, all had support from over 50% of voters.
People want reform
The British Social Attitudes Study has been asking about peoples’ attitudes to electoral reform since 1983. As the chart shows, until 2008, a clear majority were always in favour of keeping the current system. But in 2021, for the first time, a majority were in favour of change, and the number is still growing, with support for change highest among those who say that they ‘almost never’ trust governments.
Many MPs want reform
Electoral reform is usually popular among opposition parties. At present, Reform UK supports it, and recently, Kemi Badenoch said that “Labour … has won a landslide majority on 34% of the vote. That is a scandal”. But when a party comes to power views change. The incentive to keep the system which won you the seat is strong. And the main parties have always been wary of the power they give smaller parties and protest groups, remembering how the proportional system of the European Parliament gave power to UKIP.
But there is evidence of change. The largest All Party Parliamentary Group is the group for Fair Elections, with 138 MPs, half of them Labour. In our region, a quarter of all MPs are members.
Labour plans
Some constitutional reform is in hand. The legislation to abolish hereditary peers from the House of Lords is expected to become law before the summer recess, and the English Devolution Bill just published will restore proportional representation for mayoral elections.
Democracy Minister Rushanara Ali, has now confirmed that there will be an Elections Bill in the next Kings Speech, to include:
- Lowering the voting age to 16
- Reforming the voter ID requirements to allow a wider range of identification documents
- Working towards automatic voter registration to boost participation by using existing government data to enrol all eligible adults
- Tougher new rules to guard against foreign political interference and abuse of campaigners
The All Party Group has recommended three more things:
- A National Commission on Electoral Reform: to recommend a new system. During his leadership campaign Keir Starmer promised such a constitutional convention.
- Close donation loopholes and strengthen the Electoral Commission: to prevent individuals or groups from bypassing rules and reinstate the Electoral Commission’s independence and authority to enforce regulations.
- Require new and social media platforms to publish risk assessments for ‘legal but harmful’ content, in the same way that they are currently obliged to do so for illegal content.
Conclusion
In 2024 the Labour Party played a clever, and successful, strategy, exploiting the quirks of first past the post. It won by focusing on marginal voters in marginal places, ignoring the majority of voters in ‘safe’ seats. But it provided only a fragile mandate for change. It is unlikely that they can pull the same trick again, and voter anger is snapping at their heels.
The moral case for reform is strong. Under first past the post, most votes don’t count, parties are encouraged to focus on the small minority of marginal voters and seats, and to emphasise differences, however trivial. Proportional systems encourage consensus building, and every vote counts. But the opposing case will continue to be argued, not only because it put them in power, but also because, in the past, it has usually delivered stable government.
The latest announcements are welcome progress, but there will undoubtedly be a battle within Labour over next steps, and especially over proportional voting. The evidence that winning under first past the post is a poisoned chalice may tip the balance. But perhaps the argument that Labour has won under first past the post, and can do so again, especially with the support of newly enfranchised young people, will prevail.
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