Late last month the government paused the September roll-out of the Sentencing Act 2026, more widely referred to as the early release scheme for prisoners. But will the already strained probation service be ready for the additional demands being placed on it? Staff are under pressure to find accommodation for those being released early. They also need to locate the victims of the crimes of those being released, even if the victim has not provided their contact details. And time is short.
Who is being released, and who isn’t?
There are widespread and widely reported concerns over the nature of the offences of the prisoners being released and a lack of communication with the victims of their crimes.
News that the killers of PC Andrew Harper might be included in the release has hit the headlines recently and highlighted the pressure on the probation service, prompting the government to address these fears.
Following a review on 4 August 2026 under new prime minister Andy Burnham, the government announced a series of changes to which prisoners would be eligible for release and how victims would be contacted. Those convicted of rape and child sexual offences would be excluded, as would those found by the court to be the most dangerous, such as those sentenced to life or extended determinate sentences (for offences involving extreme violence, sexual crimes or terrorism, or where life imprisonment was not available). There will be no change in release date for such prisoners, and they will remain subject to Parole Board review.
Those prisoners who have committed less serious offences will be eligible for earlier release when they have completed at least a third of their sentence. This is a change from the current 40% length of their sentence, known as SDS40, which was introduced in 2024. Prior to that offenders had to serve at least 50% of their sentence in prison.
There is also a commitment to have “increased and improved contact to all affected victims, regardless of sentence length, offence or if they are in the Victim Contact Scheme.” As previously, a victim would need to opt into the scheme in order to be contacted.
These measures will be in place for 1 October, when the releases are scheduled to begin.
Measures in the community
If a prisoner convicted of rape or serious child sex offences transitions and becomes a person on probation, and if they had spent their full time in prison, they will automatically be considered for placement in an approved premises, sometimes referred to as a ‘bail hostel’. They will then be subject to GPS trail monitoring for 12 months, giving probation constant access to their location via a GPS tag, and strengthened community supervision.
Why release early?
The prison estate in England and Wales is currently near capacity and on the verge of being unable to physically accommodate any new prisoners. This is not a recent development. In 2023, the last Conservative government started releasing prisoners 18 days early to try and prevent spaces running out.
For every announcement of new cells and facilities, there has been a loss of facilities due to their condition. And when a new prison is built, the issue of staffing can also be a challenge. Because prison staff need to live near the prison, and cannot work remotely, recruitment is not always straightforward.
Pressure on probation
The new measures being introduced for October are designed to address public concern. However, they place additional pressure and burden on the probation service, which is already under strain.
The National Association of Probation Officers was critical of the planned releases, highlighting the lack of resources for probation staff, issues with accommodation in the community, and the lack of Victim Liaison Officers.
General Secretary Ian Lawrence said: “Everyone is talking about prisons, and yes it is bad, but the crisis in probation is far worse. But yet again, our members are being overlooked while all the attention is on prison. Without probation none of this can happen, so the service needs to be front and centre to this discussion”.
Those concerns have since escalated. On 11 August, Napo members overwhelmingly backed potential industrial action over workloads and the early release scheme. The following day, chief inspector of probation Martin Jones warned that he was “not fully confident” the service could cope with the additional workload, with failures potentially resulting in serious sexual or violent offences, or even murder.
Unmanageable workloads
Nationally, a report published by the Public Accounts Committee in January 2026 found that longstanding staff shortages have left probation staff dealing with excessive and unmanageable workloads. The most recent data, from March 2025, shows that there were 5,636 full-time equivalent probation officers in post nationally, which was 79% of the targeted level of staffing. According to HM Prison and Probation Service data, probation officers have been working on average at 118% capacity for several years, with highs of 126% in some regions.
The National Probation Service in the East of England covers eight Probation Delivery Units (PDUs): Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Hertfordshire, Northamptonshire, Norfolk, North Essex, South Essex and Suffolk. A report published by HM Inspectorate of Probation in March 2026 indicated that, at the time of inspection, the region supervised 20,900 people in the community or in custody and that the region suffered from low staffing levels and high attrition. That attrition means that 35% of probation service officers had less than two years’ experience.
The Sentencing Act 2026 increases the use of home detention curfew, also known as tagging, where the person on probation is monitored. For that to take place, the person on probation needs to have an address to go to, as specific equipment needs to be placed in the property and the effectiveness of the tag measured. Not only have there been issues with getting the tags and equipment fitted, but accommodation itself is not always available. This is not a new issue.
Probation is designed to protect the public. With the introduction of these changes, perhaps it is time for the public to try and protect probation.
