Local elections in East Anglia: what to expect?

On 7 May there will be local elections in many parts of England. All observers expect a disaster for Labour and Conservatives, and substantial wins for Reform UK and the Greens.

In East Anglia, 23 of the 50 councils will hold elections. These are:

• Three county councils: Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. In these, all council seats are up for election
• Two unitary authorities – in Thurrock, where all councillors are elected, and Southend where one third are elected this year
• Sixteen district councils – all elect one third of councillors this time
• Two district councils – electing all councillors this time

There will almost certainly be substantial change in the region, especially in the three counties, all of which are currently Conservative controlled. Labour is likely to lose, because they won these seats at a time when the Conservatives were deeply unpopular. And when the three county councils were last elected Labour was polling around 35% in national polls. That figure has now fallen to around 20%.

The rise of the Greens and Reform UK

Current national polling suggests a strong swing away from the two traditional parties towards Reform UK and the Greens, although together they currently only hold 7% of the seats in these councils.

These are local, not national, elections, and local issues are very different. But many people’s vote in local elections is decided by their views on national issues like immigration, even though local authorities have no powers over them. And some people use a vote in a local election to signal a dislike of the incumbent national government. So, we can expect Reform and the Greens to do well. But predicting how well, is extremely difficult because there is so little track record available and it is possible both parties may have difficulty finding sufficient candidates to stand in every seat.

In 2022, when county seats were last contested, the Greens won only a handful of seats. As a result of subsequent elections they now have 125 seats across 29 councils, but that still represents only 7% of all councillors in the region. However, they now have majority control of Mid-Suffolk District Council, they lead coalitions in three more councils, and polls show them with close to 20% of the national vote.

Reform UK did not exist in 2022, and its predecessor, the Brexit Party, won very few seats across England. They now hold 25 seats across 28 councils in the region, many of them councillors originally elected as Conservatives. But Reform is polling nationally around 27%, which suggests that they will increase the numbers very substantially.

A further uncertainty concerns tactical voting. Many people vote, not to support a party they like, but to block one they hate. And opinion polls show a particularly strong aversion to Reform UK. In the last two parliamentary by-elections many voters, including some traditional conservatives, switched parties to block Reform.

This may happen again, but much will depend on turnout. If the elections get little attention, and most voters stay at home, the hard core of supporters, on left and right, will have significant influence.

A unique election

Usually, councillors are elected for three or four years, but not this time. Under the government’s plans for local government reorganisation, all these councils will be abolished in May 2028, when the new single tier of Unitary Authorities will take over local government in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. So, the new councillors will have limited opportunity to make significant change before they are out of office. And in May next year, new councillors will be elected to take up ‘shadow’ roles in preparation for the new structures.

Because of this limited time frame, the government had wanted to postpone these elections, but faced with a legal challenge, they withdrew that proposal. This has reduced the time available to prepare for this election, making it more difficult for parties, especially the smaller ones, to organise and find enough candidates.

What might we expect?

Despite the difficulties of prediction, the national PollCheck website has produced predictions for all local authorities. They do this by combining current national polling data with ward level demographic data, which tells us how particular groups of people are likely to vote.

The most dramatic change is likely to be in the county councils, because all their seats are up for election. Without a high turnout and a lot of tactical voting, Reform UK is likely to take control from the Conservatives on Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk County Councils. For the same reason it is likely that they will take control from Labour in Thurrock.

In the districts the effects will be more muted, since only a third of the seats are up for election. Here, quite a large swing in opinion may not change control. The most likely changes will be in three districts where Labour currently leads coalitions: in Peterborough, Southend and Welwyn Hatfield. In Harlow the Conservatives currently have a majority of one seat, and they may well lose control to Reform.

The chart shows the current distribution of council seats in the 23 councils, and the current Poll Check projection for seat numbers after the election. It suggests that Labour and Liberal Democrats might lose around 60 seats between them, with about a third going to the Greens. But the really dramatic change is the collapse of the Conservatives, who may lose over 200 seats, and the rise of Reform, who will likely gain 250, two thirds of them in the three county councils.

How might control change

Because most councils are only electing a third of councillors, the overall change in political control is relatively modest. As the table below shows, only half of the 23 have a single party in clear control now, and Poll check predicts that that number might fall slightly.

 Data from Poll Check

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