Local elections in the East: candidates and battlegrounds

In the East of England, on 7 May, voters will go to the polls in 23 council areas. In six they will elect the full council: Norfolk, Suffolk, and Essex county councils, Thurrock unitary authority, and Huntingdonshire and South Cambridgeshire Districts. In the other 17 they will elect one third of the councillors. So, what might we expect?

A very different election

This year’s elections are unlike any previous ones. Because of local government reorganisation, almost all these councillors will only serve for two years, before the councils themselves are abolished. And since they will inherit the budgets and plans of their predecessors, their ability to make significant change is limited.

Secondly, the traditional three-way contests between Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats have been overturned by the rise of the Greens and Reform UK. As a result, almost all seats are being contested by five parties. The exceptions include Huntingdonshire, where Labour is not standing in half the seats, and Thurrock, where, with 49 seats to elect, the LibDems are only fielding two candidates, and the Greens have only 25. In Harlow the LibDems are only contesting one seat and in Epping Forest only Conservatives and Reform are contesting all seats.

There are parts of the region with a strong tradition of independent councillors or local parties. This is especially true in south Essex. There are more than 200 independent candidates across the region, and seven councils where they are contesting a majority of the seats.

Reshaping the right

One unknown factor is the relationship between the Conservatives and Reform UK. East Anglia is traditionally a conservative region, and polling suggests that this remains true. But conservative politics is being reconfigured. After recent damage to the Conservative brand, a large number of former Conservative councillors and voters have abandoned the party to join Reform. But to enhance its credibility as a serious party, Reform is now recruiting former Conservatives as candidates at local and national level.

It remains to be seen whether a perception of Reform as reheated Conservatives is an asset or a hindrance in these elections. And Rupert Lowe, who was evicted from Reform after quarrelling with Nigel Farage, has launched Great Yarmouth First as a party further to the right. By splitting the far right vote in the nine seats where they are standing, they could return those seats to the Conservatives.

Predictions

The Poll Check website projects a likely outcome for each seat, using data from national polling and the known demographic profile of each ward. At the time of writing (11 April) their prediction of party control of councils after the election is:

Places to watch

The most dramatic contests will be Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex county councils, and Thurrock, where all the seats are up for election, so there is scope for substantial swings. All are currently Conservative-controlled, but polling suggests that Reform UK will overturn this, gaining substantial majorities in all three.

Norfolk

In Norfolk, PollCheck predicts that Reform will take almost all the seats outside greater Norwich, giving them a clear majority (66 of the 84 seats). The exceptions are Wymondham (Conservative) and Holt (Liberal Democrat).

There are 9 seats shown as Reform wins, but where tactical voting might defeat them, because their vote share is smaller than the combined left vote (Labour, LibDem and Green). In seven of these the LibDems are runners up, with one each for Labour and Greens.

Suffolk

In Suffolk, again the prediction is for a Reform win, with 57 of the 70 seats. There is a heavy concentration of Labour seats round Ipswich, six seats predicted for the Greens across the county, especially in the north east corner, and one, Melford, for independents.

In Suffolk there is considerable scope for tactical voting. In 16 seats predicted as Reform wins, their predicted vote share is smaller than the combined left vote share. In six of these the runners up are the Greens, with Labour and Liberal Democrats each runners up in five.

Essex

In Essex, Reform is predicted to win 56 of the 78 seats. Opposition is divided, with Labour in Basildon, Colchester and Harwich; Conservatives in some parts of the west of the county; and Liberal Democrats in Chelmsford and Maldon. And the Residents for Uttlesford party are expected to retain their seats in the north west.

The scope for tactical voting in Essex is limited. There are only four Essex seats where the combined left vote is larger than the predicted for Reform share. These are Wivenhoe St Andrew, Colchester North, Colchester St Johns, and Brentwood North. In all four, the principal challenger is the Liberal Democrats.

Thurrock

Thurrock council has had serious financial difficulties in recent years, and has had to make large savings, which always harms incumbents. It currently has a Labour administration, but polling suggests a strong swing to Reform, who could win 42 of the 49 seats.

Norwich

Norwich currently has a Labour minority administration, having lost control through some recent defections. The Greens are in opposition, and the prediction is that they will gain seats, but with 19 of 39, just short of a majority. On current predictions, only a Green/Liberal Democrat coalition could form a majority on the new council.

Harlow

Harlow is currently controlled by Conservatives, but polling suggests that many of their voters will defect to Reform. However, since only a third of the seats are up for election, the likely result will be a council split evenly between Reform, Conservatives and Labour.

Cambridge

Cambridge is currently controlled by Labour, but Liberal Democrats have a strong presence in the surrounding areas, and are predicted to retain control of South Cambridgeshire. Polling suggests that Labour will lose control, but remain the largest party, able to govern in collaboration with either Liberal Democrats or Greens.

The curse of first past the post

As usual, these will be first past the post elections. It is a system which works reasonably well when there are two parties in contention and one will get at least half of the votes cast. However, when there are five parties, it is possible for one party to win with barely 20%, which is hardly a democratic outcome. By contrast, a proportional electoral system would allocate seats in accordance with vote share. The chart shows the contrast between first past the post and proportional outcomes on the basis of the current predictions,

Note of caution

The predictions in this article are based on Poll Check data and modelling, and these are only very preliminary indications. The model itself may be imperfect, and the underlying polling numbers which it uses will certainly change during the campaign.

Other pollsters will also be producing predictions, and we will update this as the campaign progresses. There are also tactical voting websites which will be providing advice.