The more dramatic of the opinion polls suggest that Thérèse Coffey, the MP for Suffolk Coastal, could find her seat in jeopardy at the next general election. East Suffolk District Council covers much of the same territory as the parliamentary seat, though the annoying differences in boundaries are further exacerbated by new Boundary Commission changes. (One will be to shift Lowestoft, which will be significant.)
The sheer impossibility of the voter understanding just who represents them at any level is no doubt partly to blame for the notorious indifference shown by the British public towards how we are governed.
The boundary changes might almost be planned to achieve that purpose. But whatever the differences between the council and parliamentary boundaries, it is that far flung possibility that Coffey may lose her seat at a general election which makes the result of this week’s district election in East Suffolk of interest.
The natural order passes
East Suffolk has almost always been safe Tory territory, that debilitating and feudal mix of wealth and poverty, which in the past has produced a forelock-tugging and compliant tenantry, who either knew their place or subscribed to the traditional brutalities of inequality as being the natural order. The MP sent up to Westminster was there to protect them against the slicksters of the outside world. The councillors were there to defend their own interests, and the villages they represented knew enough to do their duty in the polling booth and not ask questions.
That has changed, of course. New wealth means old loyalties are being lost. Incomers bring their own values. Back in the 70s the communities around the Waveney Valley was where hippies came to get themselves together. The coast has long been the haunt of writers, painters and musicians, and the area has become the home of seaside chic. Just a few people work on the land now, and they are far outweighed by those in IT or hospitality. There is no obvious reason why they would subscribe to the old values.
Tories still hold big majority
At the moment, East Suffolk Tories hold a huge majority of 23 on the council. The Tories hold 39 seats, Labour seven, Greens five and Liberal Democrats three, with one Independent.
But vote share tells a different story: 38% for the Tories and 50% for the combined opposition.
The Greens are ebullient and have made inroads in the past couple of years. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are nowhere and are complacently content with their role as also-rans. So, any movement in the polls is likely to reflect anger at Conservatism rather than anything positive.
This is one of the many council areas failed by the political parties. Between elections they are mostly invisible, squirrelled away in their monthly meetings, passing motions and debating conference agendas, only interceding into the public consciousness when an election is called and bemoaning the fact that the public isn’t more engaged.
Opposition parties only fought for second place
Will the opposition parties wake up and smell the coffee? It seems unlikely. Traditionally, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have set their sights no higher than fighting over who comes second. The Greens have much preferred hiding away in their eyries far away from the public gaze, though there are new faces now with new attitudes. If there is a breakthrough then it may be by the Greens, though they have a long way to come. It would not be a surprise however to see the Greens overtaking Labour as the official opposition, if only because they are working harder.
But Woodbridge Labour branch secretary Jeremy Hawksley has hopes.
“In 2019 Labour was within 35 votes of winning one-of the two Town seats,” he says. “So, hopes are high that Woodbridge could have its first ever Labour district councillor in Paul Richards.”
Julia Ewart is the Liberal Democrat standing in Kelsale and Yoxley and sees the election as a turning point.
“This election is like a general election in activity and interest from the public,” she says. Some “voters have seen me from the window and are on the doorstep demanding a rant before I can even knock.”
This election as a turning point
Ms Ewart adds, “I’d say it’s a local election with a national outcome. In my rural ward, older voters are reflecting back to the Liberal years and sharing how calm and courteous it was – as if to look for more.”
The view of a disillusioned and angry electorate is mentioned too by Rachel Smith-Lyte, standing for re-election in Melton for the Greens. “In general, it’s mostly encouraging,” she says. “People are either totally jaded with politics generally and probably not voting, or they are making positive sounds about voting for us, voting Green. More than several have said they will never vote Conservative again.”
But over these elections looms the ponderous figure of Thérèse Coffey, nationally vilified and this week heckled whilst walking about Woodbridge. She is there to be toppled. The country watches this council election and hopes against hope for a sign that times really are changing.
