On 2 May, every part of England and Wales has at least one election. It is these local elections – local authority, mayoral, London Assembly and Police and Crime Commissioners – that the Local Government Information Unit (LGIU) thinktank has been examining. Their Ones to Watch guide picks out those local contests where things might change. This may be due to control being won or lost by a particular party or where new political leaders could emerge. It’s not just fun to speculate, it also matters, because in these places local people could well see big changes in the priorities of their council and the services they receive.
In the East of England there are twenty different elections by our count, and a huge variety of different political contexts across the region. There are seven where the results will be eagerly watched.
Thurrock
The last few years have been particularly rocky for Thurrock due to commercial investment deals going south and unpaid loans. As a result, in 2022, Essex County Council took on financial control of the council. This was followed, at the end of the year, by revelations of a £500 million budget deficit and a Section 114 (bankruptcy) notice.
Thurrock is on a knife edge between Labour and the Conservatives with a third of its seats – 15 in all – up for election. They have a long history of flipping between both parties and landing in no overall control – which is where it currently sits. Just this February, the Conservatives lost control after suspending two of their own councillors for voting against the proposed financial strategy. Interestingly, 2024 will be the last year the thirds system is used in Thurrock as the council has been ordered to hold an all-out election in 2025, meaning all 49 seats will be up at the same time next year.
With an 8% council tax rise recently confirmed, and evidently a lot of instability, residents are sure to have some strong feelings at this election. Perhaps a dark horse to watch out for is Reform UK as Thurrock’s past voting record shows some leanings towards the party that’s ideologically similar to UKIP. It wouldn’t be the first time public frustration drove votes away from the main parties.
Brentwood
Brentwood is similarly balanced, but this time between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Currently, the council sits under no overall control with a Liberal Democrat and Labour coalition in charge, after ending eight-years of Conservative reign last May. But with all seats up for election this year due to boundary changes, anything could happen on polling day.
Norwich
In Norwich a third of the council’s total seats are up for grabs – one seat in each of the city’s wards. Labour currently has just under the number needed for a majority after four councillors resigned from the party back in November – citing a mismatch in principles with the national and local Labour party. Shortly after, a further two councillors resigned and some more information came to light concerning internal rows over candidate selection for these elections and an apparently ‘toxic atmosphere’. Perhaps the in-fighting will be a concern for Norwich residents and help give the Green Party, who hold the second highest number of seats a chance to make more gains – after moving their seats from 11 to 13 in the last election.
Rochford
Rochford is still one to play for after last year’s ending of two decades of Conservative majority, with a third of their seats up for grabs this year. In fact, a majority is certainly a possibility for Conservatives who currently find themselves just a few seats away from it. However, both the independents and Residents’ Association candidates are both in a strong position to deny the Conservatives a majority once again.
Three Rivers
In Three Rivers – covering Rickmansworth in Hertfordshire – the Liberal Democrats currently have a small majority. It’s worth noting that they have been the only party to hold a majority since 1988, showing clear favour with voters. There are a third of seats up this May, however, as history tells us, the chances of another party majority would be slim. Conservatives are currently the second biggest party, so the likelihood is that either the Liberal Democrat control remains or the council falls into no overall control.
Harlow and Basildon
In Harlow and Basildon, small Conservative majorities are about to be tested in full council elections. Labour has trailed behind – the last time Labour held Harlow was in 2021, and Basildon in 2000 – but there are signs that the tides could be turning. At the end of 2023, Basildon came under direct fire from Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove who said the council had a ‘persistent failure to meet milestones’.
Republished with permission from the Local Government Information Unit
