February has been a curious month. There have been tiny steps in the rapprochement between the UK and EU: glimmers on trade and youth mobility. But something much larger is manifesting.
In the short month since the January round-up, the global order has been fractured. This coincides with the Trump presidency getting into gear.
But first, looking back at Brexit effects…
We’ve lost the surfers! The European Surfing Federation moves HQ to France, to be within the EU.
YouGov poll: The number of Brits who think it was right to leave the EU is at its lowest since the referendum – now only 30%. Only 10% of under-24s think it was right.
Eurovanman bemoans the bureaucracy of UK-bound goods needing an inbound safety and security declaration from 31 January 2025.
Dominic Grieve believes that to improve our “paltry” 0.3% growth in goods exports, we need to “abandon the politics of fantasy”.
Brexit makes me want to “sit in a gutter and weep,” says Jeremy Clarkson. Alan Sugar thinks the PM should go on “bended knee asking to be allowed back in”.
Brexit supporters are now outnumbered.
A mood change?
Public opinion now holds that Brexit was a mistake. In an Ipsos poll, 47% said Europe is most important to Britain, more than double the number who say it is the US.
David Henig believes that the Minister for EU Relations, Nick Thomas-Symonds “is putting in the travel that none of his Brexit-era predecessors did.”
PM Starmer now wants to link UK and EU emission trading schemes.
Andrew Lewin, Welwyn Hatfield MP and member of Labour Movement for Europe, talks positively about safety standards alignment with the EU. He believes geography is everything: we must trade with our close neighbours.
The government has been assessing the merits of a youth mobility deal, publishing data to remind us that we already have such deals with Iceland, India, South Korea and Uruguay. Starmer might consider a reciprocal arrangement whereby young people could apply for a 2-year EU work visa. The government denies it, but it’s on the cards. Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, continues to speak his mind on the matter.
A date, 19 May 2025, is set for the EU/ UK Summit. The two sides should form “the closest relationship it will be possible to build together,” says António Costa, European Council President.
National security
So, there’s an inexorable movement to closer links, but that tortuous creep towards the EU might have been years in the making, if geopolitical allegiances hadn’t suddenly imploded.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s second presidency make the UK’s ‘sovereign’ independence seem less appealing. Old alliances are crumbling – where does the UK belong? When the tectonic plates of the global superpowers shift, it’s risky to find yourself an island alone.
Postwar order disordered
Munich Security Conference: US vice president JD Vance’s inflammatory speech said that freedom of speech was in retreat across Britain and Europe. Many Europeans found it “ill-judged” and “insulting”.
Following Musk’s blatant interference in the German election in favour of the hard-right party, AfD, the new Chancellor said he feels the US no longer cares about Europe, and NATO is under threat. Many feel a separation between the US and EU is increasingly likely under Trump.
The US/Ukraine rift has also widened. When Trump called President Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’, the UK and Europe distanced themselves from the US, confirming they would stand with Ukraine.
When Elon Musk tweeted something even worse, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said, “The UK must boost defence spending and take the lead in Europe.” The EU might have something to say about the UK “taking the lead” in Europe! But we may agree with the spirit of Davey’s message. The EU surely welcomes a collaborative partner.
Starmer chose to side with Europe. On 12 February, the UK issued a ‘Weimar+’ statement with Germany, France, Poland, Italy and Spain, confirming their intention to jointly support Ukraine.
France held a crisis meeting on 16 Feb including Britain along with Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark.
There was a dramatic turn on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion. In a United Nations vote condemning Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, the US voted against the motion, along with Russia, North Korea and Belarus. This would have been unthinkable only recently, and really clinches decisions for European nations.
Starmer’s impossible challenge
The PM said he doesn’t have to choose between the EU and US, but the fact that the US government has largely abandoned Europe and NATO, shown favour to Putin, and interfered in European elections, rather forces his hand.
Starmer met Trump in his first face-to-face meeting in Washington on 27 February. They discussed tech and AI partnerships; but Ukraine, tariffs and the Chagos Islands are almost certain to have come up.
A big increase in UK defence spending was announced this week. This has ‘pleased’ Trump, but his intentions are unclear.
Offering Trump a royal visit will please him, but will it lead to permanent good relations? The non-EU UK must be wary of being isolated, and stay true to its democratic values. It’s likely Starmer is playing the long game.
This could turn out to be an opportunity for Britain to reinvent itself, if Starmer has the courage, Lewis Goodall conjectures.
Many will be watching the outcome of the visit, but Dominic Grieve believes it would be a miracle if Starmer’s US trip brought a change of direction.
The last word goes to Professor Brian Cox, who says the UK should place itself “firmly back at the heart of our continent, economically, militarily, and geopolitically.”
This week could be momentous for the new UK government and Brexit. Watch this space.
