Reform UK’s support is growing. Over the last few weeks in polls from YouGov, More in Common and Hope not Hate’s new MRP, Reform UK has been projected to pick up anything from 76 to 169 Westminster seats. Just six months after a general election in which ‘change’ was promised, voters just aren’t feeling a difference yet. In Westminster, there is talk of an unshakeable “vibe” across the country. On the doorstep, in the pub, on the school run and in constituency surgeries, there’s a mood of pessimism and despondency that’s very difficult to pull people out of.
Beware of the caricature of Reformers
This coalition of pessimism is drawing voters to Reform UK. In analysis of almost 4,000 would-be Reform UK voters, Hope Not Hate found people from across the political spectrum held together by a frustration with mainstream politics and an attraction to Reform UK’s promises to “fix the system”.
This presents a direct challenge to those who so often dismiss people who vote for far-right parties as simply racist, and treat them as if they all think and feel the same way. While some are drawn to Reform’s far-right rhetoric, many are simply disillusioned voters looking for an alternative.
Contrary to perceived wisdom, Hope Not Hate’s analysis found 31% of would-be Reform voters actually have positive views on immigration and multiculturalism – some more positive in fact than the general population.
Finding a formula to defeat Reform UK
Reform UK cannot be defeated through a muscular approach to immigration – and it is a misunderstanding of the core frustration that voters feel about Britain today.
There is also the real electoral risk that the most hardline Reform voters don’t trust Labour – and that Labour can never go extreme enough for them – while socially liberal voters could move away from Labour, put off by tough rhetoric.
The public will give the government far more credit for having a coherent and balanced immigration policy based on what it thinks is right and fair, not on what they think voters might want to hear.
Reform UK voters are motivated by a feeling that decisive action needs to be taken in this country, and that the mainstream parties cannot be trusted to deliver it. From traditional working-class voters to moderate, affluent liberals, Reform UK’s “get things done” messages are cutting through.
There is room for hope
But there is room for hope. Our polling found a suite of progressive causes that appeal to potential Reform voters, the very issues which Labour have led the charge since the election.
From punishing water companies for dumping sewage in our rivers and seas, to expanding worker’s rights and bringing buses and trains back into public ownership. The public is looking to politicians to take action against rampant inequality, unchecked corporate greed… and train delays.
Our recent polling in partnership with the TUC found 72% of UK voters back a ban on zero-hours contracts, including the majority of Tory and Reform UK supporters. In stark contrast, all five Reform UK MPs and the Conservatives voted against the Employment Rights Bill at its Second Reading in October.
This pessimistic attitude among the British public can’t be fixed from London alone – something Reform UK has been quick to recognise. Farage has moved their focus away from Westminster and the party are now plotting for the local elections in 2025, 2026 and 2027.
Each campaign is given a gold or silver rating and thorough campaign guidance has been supplied to new Reform branches.
Labour needs to be the party of change
A quick look at a local Reform UK leaflet tells you all you need to know about its strategy. It’s the local issues that will win Reform seats. Gone are mentions of immigration and in their place are the survey questions on potholes, toll bridges and access to dentist appointments.
Reform UK is hiding its extremism behind genuine local action – whether that’s setting up food banks or helping pensioners fill in benefits forms and establishing themselves in communities. Criticism of their extremism won’t land if it’s a Reform councillor sorting out your grit bins.
Labour needs to be the party of change, not just at national level, but a local one too. Gaps have been created by Covid, by austerity and by Brexit which must be filled by community action – not far-right chancers.
Trust begins locally
Building trust in politicians starts locally and in partnership with communities. Whether it’s saving a local leisure centre or reinvigorating high streets – people need to feel like not only is the country getting better, but their community is too.
Reform UK’s polling surge – and the coalition of voters behind it – proves that there’s no single policy button the government can smash to fix this issue.
No singular well-crafted message that makes this go away. It’s hard graft and local action by local champions that will make the difference.
This article was first published in LabourList.
