The European Union’s enlargement process faces unprecedented hybrid threats as geopolitical disruptions mount and socio-economic conditions deteriorate. One of the EU’s most effective tools of geopolitical influence – the enlargement process – faces a combination of hybrid risks unlike any seen before. Russia remains the primary external actor seeking to subvert enlargement, using a combination of political interference, disinformation and economic manipulation to weaken EU influence within candidate states and among its own members.
Moscow’s approach targets structural vulnerabilities in the EU and its neighbourhood, exploiting three key areas:
- the rise of sovereigntist populism (weaponising sovereigntist populism)
- the erosion of information integrity (weaponising information)
- the deepening of poverty (weaponising poverty).
Understanding and countering Russia’s tactics is critical for preserving the credibility and viability of EU enlargement.
Russia’s motivation: countering EU influence in Eastern Europe
Russia perceives EU enlargement as a direct threat to its geopolitical influence. The Europeanisation of Eastern Europe – driven by accession-linked reforms – poses a challenge to the region’s autocratic regimes because it promotes democratic governance and economic liberalisation. Moscow has therefore adopted a proactive strategy to undermine enlargement before its transformative effects take hold.
The Europeanisation of Eastern Europe poses a challenge to autocratic regimes in the region by promoting democratic governance and economic liberalisation
The EU’s eastward enlargement beyond the 2004–2007 borders prompted Russia to escalate its hybrid tactics. The decision to grant Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia candidate status in 2022–2023 caused Moscow further alarm because it regards EU accession as an extension of Western geopolitical interference. Russia interpreted the 2014 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine as a Western-engineered ‘colour revolution’. Indeed, Euromaidan remains a key reference for the Kremlin’s perception of European integration as a strategic threat.
Weaponising sovereigntist populism
Russian influence in Europe extends beyond fostering illiberalism. Russia increasingly aligns with sovereigntist populism, which prioritises national economic interests over supranational commitments. Unlike traditional far-right movements – which often meet with public and elite resistance – sovereigntist populism presents a more palatable alternative for mainstream voters because it emphasises economic grievances.
Figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico exploit concerns over the economic impact of EU policies, such as sanctions against Russia and disruptions to energy supply chains. This resonates with domestic audiences, reinforcing scepticism toward enlargement by highlighting its perceived costs for stakeholders such as farmers and small businesses. Russia supports this discourse, using it to foster divisions within the EU and slow down expansion efforts.
Weaponising information
Disinformation remains a cornerstone of Russia’s hybrid strategy against EU enlargement. Unlike conventional military or economic tools, information warfare requires minimal investment to achieve disproportionate effects. Malign narratives target candidate states and EU members, amplifying anti-EU sentiment and obstructing reform efforts tied to accession.
The European External Action Service has extensively documented Foreign Information Malign Interference (FIMI). In 2023 alone, Ukraine experienced 160 recorded cases, while Serbia – an EU candidate – faced 23. Even within the EU, leading states like Germany, France and Poland were subject to over 80 incidents. The growing role of AI-driven misinformation, such as X’s Grok chatbot, compounds these risks, making EU enlargement increasingly vulnerable to digital manipulation.
The growing role of AI-driven misinformation makes EU enlargement increasingly vulnerable to digital manipulation
Internal EU political dynamics heighten the risk of disinformation, particularly in transatlantic relations. Donald Trump’s anti-EU rhetoric emboldens narratives that undermine European unity and enlargement prospects. A weakened fact-checking infrastructure – exemplified by Meta’s rollback of verification mechanisms – makes public discourse even more susceptible to manipulation.
Weaponising poverty
Economic hardship is another tool in Russia’s hybrid arsenal. Socioeconomic distress fuels disenchantment with the EU, making vulnerable populations more receptive to anti-European narratives. The housing crisis in the Netherlands and unfulfilled expectations from EU enlargement, can shift voters toward far-right actors.
This dynamic is particularly evident in economically weaker EU states, such as Romania, where external actors exploit dissatisfaction to strengthen anti-EU sentiment. Platforms like TikTok have targeted disadvantaged voters, including Romania’s large diaspora, with algorithmically driven populist messaging. The link between economic insecurity and political radicalisation was evident in Moldova’s 2024 presidential elections. During the campaign, pro-Russian actors reportedly funnelled $39 million into campaigns aimed at tilting the vote toward Moscow-aligned candidates. The Kremlin could replicate such tactics elsewhere to erode pro-European constituencies and delay enlargement efforts.
Securing enlargement against hybrid threats
As Veronica Anghel argues in her foundational blog for this series, EU enlargement took on geostrategic importance after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And Russia seeks to deter enlargement, which could strengthen the EU in multiple ways. Russia’s weaponisation of sovereigntist populism, disinformation and economic vulnerabilities presents a formidable challenge to EU enlargement. Left unchecked, these hybrid tactics could stall integration efforts, weaken pro-European leadership and erode the Union’s strategic influence in its neighbourhood.
The EU must strengthen resilience against disinformation, enhance economic support for candidate states and ensure that enlargement remains a credible, strategic priority
Countering these threats requires a multidimensional response. The EU must strengthen resilience against disinformation, enhance economic support for candidate states and ensure that enlargement remains a credible and strategic priority. By so doing, the Union will safeguard its enlargement agenda and reinforce the integrity and resilience of the European integration process.
The weaponisation of sovereigntist populism, information and poverty can hinder EU enlargement by driving leadership and societies away from Brussels. Only by addressing all three vulnerabilities can the EU safeguard its enlargement strategy, and itself, against Russian or other foreign hybrid interference. If hybrid warfare tactics paralyse enlargement, European integration along EU borders faces equally high risks.
This article was originally published at The Loop and is republished here under a Creative Commons license. No.12 in a Loop series on EU enlargement dilemmas.
