Journalists love drama, and for months the media coverage of politics has been dominated by Reform UK. With a charismatic, deeply divisive leader, they have risen from nowhere to be neck and neck with the main parties. And for some on the liberal wing of politics they look dangerously like a gateway to fascism. So, the rise of Reform is exciting. But focusing on Reform UK not only gives them ‘the oxygen of publicity’, it also neglects other important things which are going on.
The Liberal Democrat surprise
Perhaps one of the biggest is the rise of the Liberal Democrats. Nobody casually reading the news, or even the polls, would know that the most popular party leader in England is Ed Davey, as the polling guru and Liberal Democrat President, Lord Pack, pointed out in a recent letter to The Observer:
“Your latest opinion poll from Opinium asked the public if they trusted six different politicians on the economy. Yet your write-up only mentions five of them.
“Not only is one left out, they are the one who comes out best in the poll, with a net rating a full 16 points better than the second placed. They also come out best of all the party leaders on overall approval ratings in your own poll. But they do not get named at all in your write-up of it.
“That unnamed person who tops the poll? Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey.”
The table below shows what Pack found, when he examined all the polls conducted this year.
As the table shows, although all polls show Ed Davey with the best net approval scores (approve minus disapprove), only two of the nine mention him in their reports of net scores for ‘all’ leaders. Three do not mention him at all and you will only find his scores by accessing their online spreadsheets. Neither More in Common nor Opinium highlight the fact that Ed Davey tops their net approval ratings. This amnesia spills into other areas. BMG data shows that more people have not heard of Kemi Badenoch than have not heard of Ed Davey, while Ipsos gives Ed Davey the best net score on whether he would be a good or bad PM.
A four-horse race?
This matters because we seem to be in a new electoral world. We are used to first past the post elections with two main parties, one of which always wins, with around half the votes. But all pollsters agree that Conservatives, Labour and Reform are now closely tied, at around 23% each, and although the Liberal Democrats are behind, in volatile times a popular leader might close the gap, especially if voters knew they were in contention.
In a traditional, two-horse, first-past-the-post election, most voters know that there are only two parties that can win, and everything else is a wasted protest vote. So, they vote Labour or Conservative to keep out the candidate they dislike most. But when people can see that there are really four parties in the race, that process may go into reverse, with people voting for their real preference.
What this means for May’s elections in the East
On 1 May we have local elections across England. Local elections do not predict national ones, but they do take the political temperature.
In our region, elections are being postponed in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex due to reorganisation plans. But we have elections for the full councils in Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire. The current councillors in these places were elected at a peak of Conservative popularity under Boris Johnson. Since then, the party’s polling has fallen catastrophically. So it is almost certain that the Conservative vote will fall.
And locally, as nationally, the number of parties standing has risen. In the past, many local councillors have been elected unopposed. But this time it appears that every local council seat will be contested, often between five candidates, and the winning vote share may well be very small in many places. For a decade, local election turnout in the Eastern Region has never been higher than 40%. So, if 40% splits fairly evenly between four parties, the winner might be chosen by barely one in ten electors.
Liberal wins in Herts and Cambs?
In both Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire the prospects for the Liberal Democrats seem promising.
Hertfordshire has 78 councillors. The Liberal Democrats have 22 after the Conservatives’ 42. But Liberal Democrats are strong in the county. In last year’s general election they did very well, and the majorities of the two Liberal Democrat MPs elected, in St Albans and Harpenden, were both among the five largest in the region. So, it is very likely that the Conservatives will lose overall control of the county council, and conceivable that the Liberal Democrats might lead the new council.
In Cambridgeshire, the Liberal Democrats hold 23 seats to the Conservatives 22, and the Liberal Democrats rule, in coalition with the 10 Labour councillors and some Independents. In the county, they already have three MPs, and they control two of the District Councils. It is likely that, with a drop in support for Conservatives and Labour, they will add enough seats to take full control of the council.
Confounding the pollsters
So, despite being ignored by the pollsters, the Liberal Democrats look set for major progress in our region. Why the party remains so ignored by the pollsters remains a mystery, but it does not look likely to damage their chances here.
