There are many reasons to be concerned about artificial intelligence (AI). People worry about ownership of intellectual property, about the environmental impact of data centres, and more apocalyptically about the risk of AI running beyond human control. Much of this is speculation, often based on slender evidence. But an authoritative team has just published an account of one possible future for AI and Europe. It is not a happy picture
A serious report
Europe 2031 presents a five year scenario, describing one possible way in which AI may develop globally and its implications for Europe. To make it accessible, it is presented as a story of two people, but it is very serious document, which is being widely discussed in the specialist press and European policy circles.
It is the work of an independent team of AI researchers, think-tankers and investors, who have spent their careers at the intersection of frontier AI and European policy. They have advised political leaders, helped shape European AI legislation, co-authored national AI strategies, built frontier AI models, invested in AI companies and contributed to the International AI Safety Report.
The urgency
Put simply, the paper argues that on current trends, in a very few years, the continent could become less wealthy, less secure, and less able to make its own decisions.
European leaders are only beginning to understand the AI trend lines. AI already writes most of the software at the leading AI labs, it is beginning to run its own research and is redefining cybersecurity. Before long, it will disrupt labour markets, warfare and the global balance of power. This will change life: the last industrial revolution took a century, this one will take a decade.
But Europe fails to understand what Silicon Valley is seeing. Over the six-year period from the public release of DeepSeek’s R1 model in 2025 to March 2031, Europe may lose the ability to chart its own path.
The core idea is simple. AI will reshape many things, including the balance of power between countries. And by the time European leaders fully understand the scale of the change, they may already be too far behind to catch up.
2025: a step change
In 2025, the Chinese showed that world-class AI can be built cheaply and efficiently. Some Europeans assumed that this meant that huge computing power was unnecessary. But in reality this simply accelerated scaling up. Better software and more computing power reinforce each other. The countries that control the most chips and data centres will enjoy a decisive advantage.
And Europe is already well behind. There are grand-sounding plans and promises, but they are often political theatre. Bold policies for “sovereignty” and “strategic independence”, are no substitute for difficult choices and adequate funding.
Many of Europe’s public institutions are not using the new technology themselves. Officials are blocked from frontier AI tools and do not have the technical skills to judge what the technology can really do. The people meant to regulate AI often understand it less well than the companies building it. In a fast-moving race, that is a serious weakness.
And regulation becomes harder as new AI models stop reasoning in a way people can easily follow. Regulators can no longer rely on simple explanations or visible logic traces. That makes it tougher to know whether a model is safe, biased or being used maliciously.
Negotiating from weakness
The scenario suggests that as more advanced AI systems emerge, access to them will become a privilege rather than something everyone can get. The US will start controlling who gets the newest systems first. It is already threatening tariffs. Europe will have little leverage because it has only a small share of the world’s AI computing power. In effect, it depends on other countries for the tools that may shape its future. And the price of laptops and tablets is rising as AI hoovers up chip supplies.
Europe may try to protect itself with rules that sound sensible, but these may backfire. European-only systems in critical public services may be more vulnerable to cyberattacks and ransomware.
By 2030 (only four years away), the report suggests that the US may begin rationing access to frontier AI by country, with Europe in a weaker tier. That means slower access, less computing capacity and less influence. As businesses in the US and China adopt AI faster, European firms fall behind. Some may be bought up, others shrink and jobs disappear faster than new ones are created.
Losing its industrial base and its AI edge at the same time will put huge pressure on the euro and on political unity itself. The EU will stop feeling like a strong shared project and start to look fragile, with economic strain – welfare costs rise, tax income falls, while debt becomes harder to manage.
Is there hope?
So by 2031, Europe could face awful choices: dependent on the US, pressured by China or isolated and weakened on its own. This will not be because any one leader is evil or reckless. Just ordinary caution, slow decision-making and the need to build political consensus can produce a disastrous result when the world is changing this quickly.
The report is alarming, yet it suggests that Europe can still act. But it must do so at much larger scale than before. It argues for heavy investment in computing power, energy, chips and data centres. It should build alliances with other countries that face similar risks. It should help workers adapt through retraining and support. And it should focus on areas where it still has strengths, like robotics and industrial AI.
Europe needs a positive vision, not just fear. But Europe 2031 is a warning that the AI revolution could leave Europe behind unless it acts quickly, boldly and with much more realism about power, scale and speed. The few in Europe who have understood the pace and magnitude of the change that is coming are not talking loudly enough.
It may be that this is a plea from a self-interested lobby, many people, however, doubt that. And to reject the argument out of hand would be a big gamble on all our futures. This is not a moment for ordinary politics.
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