This article was updated on Monday 6 June, after a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister was announced.
As a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister looms today, it became clear over the weekend a rebel faction of Tory MPs want Boris Johnson gone. The plot was leaked through a secret memo which lays out why he must face and lose the vote, or the Tories face a landslide defeat at the next election.
The briefing document was leaked to Politics Home on Sunday. It suggests the up-coming byelections on 23 June are probably already lost. It also argues recent increases in tactical voting will likely hand the Labour party a landslide victory at the next General Election. A telling line notes the “entire purpose of the Government now appears to be the sustenance of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.”
Focus on next General Election
The clarity of the calculus laid out here is astonishing. Its entire focus is on the next election and driven by self-preservation. It makes no mention of Johnson’s many failings as a Prime Minister, or the damage he has done both to the office of Prime Minister or the international standing of the country. The crux of the argument is focused on Johnson no-longer being a ‘vote-winner’ and their wish to safeguard their own jobs. It suggests both ‘Red Wall’ and ‘Blue Wall’ seats with substantial majorities are no longer safe.
The brief acknowledges a collapse of trust by the public in Johnson: he “cannot win their trust back, and they will discount anything a Government led by him promises.” This, if anything, understates how under water the government is. This week’s polls show even after the Chancellor announced a substantial emergency package to help people through the cost of living crisis, the polls didn’t budge even a point in the Tories’ favour.
Vote of no confidence?
A no-confidence vote in the Tory party is triggered by letters from 15% of sitting MPs being sent to Sir Graham Brady, Chair of the backbench 1922 committee. This would require a minimum of 54 letters. Tim Shipman, Chief Political Commentator of the Sunday Times today claimed 67 have now been sent in, but as this process is conducted in secret, only Brady knows the exact number.
Once the threshold is reached, he will make an announcement and a secret ballot will be held. With 359 members, it will take around 180 votes against Johnson to remove him. This is a major hurdle given he will likely be able to to count on at least 140 votes from MPs who are on the government “payroll”. This includes Cabinet ministers, junior ministers and parliamentary private secretaries, all of whom would lose their jobs if Johnson is ousted.
Johnson may be forced to go
If the Prime Minister loses tonight’s vote of no confidence, there will be a leadership contest which will take around two months. The only clear challenger so far is Jeremy Hunt.
If Johnson wins, as Theresa May did in 2018, he will be damaged by the process. Another vote against him, under party rules, cannot be held for another year. That said, the rules can be – and almost certainly would be – changed if he survives but drags the party further down in the polls.
Whatever happens, this vote will cause irreparable damage to the Tory brand, as well as to the unity and morale within the parliamentary party.
This is the text that has allegedly been circulated to Tory MPs.
PARTY LEADERSHIP
- Boris Johnson is no longer an electoral asset and, if left in post, will lead the Party to a substantial defeat in 2024. He will lose Red Wall seats (with majorities under 10,000) to Labour, and Blue Wall seats (majorities up to 20,000) to the Liberal Democrats. At least 160 MPs are at risk (all majorities under 10k, and LD-facing majorities under 20k). Furthermore, tactical voting, so devastating in 1997, is returning and could turn a defeat into a landslide.
- Partygate, and the Prime Minister’s denials of it in the House of Commons, represent a major breach of trust with the British population, including 2019 Conservatives, many of whom have abandoned the party already. Boris Johnson cannot win their trust back, and they will discount anything a Government led by him promises.
- Partygate is not going away. Allegations of a birthday party – hitherto uninvestigated – in the flat on June 19, 2020 have not been denied by Downing Street. And the “Abba party” of November 13, 2020 was not fully investigated by Sue Gray. The Privileges Committee will want to examine both events, and may demand that Boris Johnson, Carrie Johnson, Sue Gray and No 10 staff give evidence to them.
- The entire purpose of the Government now appears to be the sustenance of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. MPs are having to defend the indefensible, not for the sake of the party, but for one man. He is the only Minister given negative ratings by activists in the ConHome ratings (link), meaning he is dragging everyone else down.
Electoral Considerations
- Our last lead in the polls was on 6th December, a week after the initial Partygate stories broke. We are now an average of 8% down. We won the last election by 11.8% (GB) so this represents a 10% swing against us. (link)
- 27% of current Conservative voters think the PM should resign, indicating there is potential for a further fall in our polling position. 51% of current Conservative voters think the PM knowingly lied about breaking lockdown rules. (link)
- The booing of Boris Johnson at the Jubilee Thanksgiving service tells us nothing that data does not. There is no social group that trusts him, with even 55% of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy, against only 25% saying he is trustworthy. (link)
- The damage done to trust in Boris Johnson is such that popular policies are falling flat with the public (e.g. cost-of-living measures). A pollster has dubbed him the “Conservative Corbyn” because of this. (link)
- The recent YouGov MRP poll (link) showed us losing 85 of 88 Labour-facing seats at the next election.
Bookmakers expect us to lose the Red Wall seat of Wakefield (maj 3,358) comfortably
- Facing the Lib Dems, we have already lost Chesham & Amersham (maj 16,223) on a 25.2% swing and North Shropshire (maj 22,949) on a 34.2% swing. North Shropshire was the seventh-worst by-election swing since the war – only Christchurch was bigger in the 1992-97 Parliament (link). Bookmakers also expect Tiverton & Honiton (maj 24,239) to follow.
- This situation is not comparable to the “mid-term blues” in the 2010-15 Parliament. There are very few votes on our right to squeeze (unlike e.g. 2013, where UKIP polled into the 20s at times, link). The polls in 2010-15 were also shown to be wrong following an inquiry after the 2015 election.
Risk of an early General Election
- Should Boris Johnson win a vote of no confidence, but only narrowly, his authority within the Commons and the Parliamentary Party would be destroyed. Most Prime Ministers would resign; however it has been suggested (link) that he would consider calling an early General Election (despite the obvious electoral risk) as the only way to restore his personal mandate. This would put MPs in marginal seats at risk.
Privileges Committee
- The Partygate story will continue to be played out over the summer, with reports suggesting the Privileges Committee may not report until October (link), overshadowing our conference and ensuring Ministers and MPs continue to face questions on this subject for months. The four Conservative MPs on the Committee – and the integrity of all of them is beyond question – have been placed in a very difficult position.
- The only way to end this misery, earn a hearing from the British public, and restore Conservative fortunes to a point where we can win the next General Election, is to remove Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.
