Universal Credit cuts threaten Tory MPs in the East

On 6^th October, Rishi Sunak plans to withdraw the temporary boost to Universal Credit which he introduced to cushion the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Nationwide almost six million people will see their incomes fall dramatically. But two million don’t realise this is coming.

How big is the cut?

Though the size of the cut will depend on individual circumstances, Joint Claimants over 25 on the Standard Rate will see their income fall from £596.58 a month to £509.91, while single people and those under 25 will see a larger cut. Citizen’s Advice estimate that this cut is the equivalent of three days of food costs for the average family. Their survey suggests that 38 percent of claimants will go into debt as a result, and the number rises to 49 percent in the “Red Wall” constituencies, which switched from Labour to Conservative in recent elections.

What about East Anglia?

In East Anglia 320,000 families receive Universal Credit, more than half of them with children. Forty percent of these claimants are in work, but not earning enough to meet the minimum needs for basic living. In every constituency more than 10% of families are on Universal Credit, and that percentage rises to over 25% in five of them (see table below). So the blow is going to be felt right across the region.

Will our region’s Conservative MP’s back the cut?

Thirty nine of the region’s 41 MPs are Conservatives, and the Party has traditionally been opposed to generous welfare benefits of any kind. However twelve of the region’s Conservative MPs have majorities smaller than the number of Credit claimants. At the extreme, in Peterborough Paul Bristow MP has a majority of only 2,580, but 18,360 voters on Universal Credit.

So the Universal Credit cut is a real threat to at least ten of the region’s MPs, especially in Peterborough, Ipswich and Norwich North, where the Conservatives hold the seat with narrow majorities.

In Waveney, Peter Aldous has already written to the Prime Minister calling for the cut to be cancelled. It will be interesting to see how large a rebellion there will be on the government benches when the issue comes to Parliament. Will our MPs be prepared to inflict cuts on such a large proportion of their own constituents, or will they swallow their traditional principles, and vote to block this cut?

Where will the cuts bite hardest?

The constituencies most affected are listed here. All are held by Conservatives :

Constituency	County	MP	2019 Majority	Families on universal credit or working tax credits	Percentage of families on universal credit or working tax credits
Peterborough	Cambs	Paul Bristow	2,580	18,360	36.8%
Great Yarmouth	Norfolk	Brandon Lewis	17,663	12,120	30.9%
Rochford and Southend East	Essex	James Duddridge	12,286	12,510	27.8%
Clacton	Essex	Giles Watling	24,702	9,190	27.6%
Waveney	Suffolk	Peter Aldous	18,002	10,400	25.6%
Ipswich	Suffolk	Tom Hunt	5,479	12,200	24.3%
Harlow	Essex	Robert Halfon	14,063	10,030	24.3%
Thurrock	Essex	Jacqueline Doyle-Price	11,482	13,310	24.2%
South Basildon and East Thurrock	Essex	Stephen Metcalfe	19,922	8,880	21.5%
Basildon and Billericay	Essex	John Baron	20,412	8,350	21.0%
North East Cambridgeshire	Cambs	Stephen Barclay	29,993	9,560	20.2%
North West Norfolk	Norfolk	James Wild	19,922	7,250	19.2%
Colchester	Essex	Will Quince	9,423	10,540	19.2%
Norwich North	Norfolk	Chloe Smith	4,738	7,480	19.2%
North West Cambridgeshire	Cambs	Shailesh Vara	25,983	10,540	19.0%